jerseyhoya wrote:Zogby has Runyan up three

Not that I'm going to get excited by that, because Zogby is the Jim Caple of the political polling universe, but at least it's not one of his completely useless online Interactive polls, so it might have some value.

My dad's been putting in a good bit of time volunteering at Runyan headquarters. He has thus far resisted my suggestions to wear a NY Giants shirt/hat to the office.

I am not asking this to pick a fight but purely out of curiosity; is your Dad volunteering because he believes Runyan to be the better candidate or because Runyan is GOP? Or is it impossible to separate those options? I just feel like any other year and Runyan would be down double-digits to a guy like Adler. And I really don't think Adler is any great shakes.

Warszawa wrote:Joe Sestak again coming through with a great ad campaign

Not sure if this post is sarcastic or not, but I found this ad pretty distasteful, and there ain't no way I am voting for Toomey.

traderdave wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Zogby has Runyan up three

Not that I'm going to get excited by that, because Zogby is the Jim Caple of the political polling universe, but at least it's not one of his completely useless online Interactive polls, so it might have some value.

My dad's been putting in a good bit of time volunteering at Runyan headquarters. He has thus far resisted my suggestions to wear a NY Giants shirt/hat to the office.

I am not asking this to pick a fight but purely out of curiosity; is your Dad volunteering because he believes Runyan to be the better candidate or because Runyan is GOP? Or is it impossible to separate those options? I just feel like any other year and Runyan would be down double-digits to a guy like Adler. And I really don't think Adler is any great shakes.

A congressman has three main functions: voting, constituent services, and crafting legislation. For junior members especially, voting is the most important. The most important vote any congressman takes is the vote for speaker. In the House, party control, even by a vote, is enough to dictate the agenda completely if you have party discipline.

Runyan wouldn't be beating Adler in a normal year, but it would be a competitive race. He's a freshman Dem in a swing district that tends to vote Republican in non-Presidential races.

How smart someone is or how "good of a candidate" they are is only worth so much, because it's really not that big of a part of the job. It's not like Adler is going to be writing any important laws any time soon either. He votes for Pelosi, Runyan will vote for Boehner.

jerseyhoya wrote:far more worried than I would if they were wearing pastel polo shirts.

this is one of the dilemmas of the human condition. It feels "natural" to be more afraid of the african americans now, but the pastel polo shirts guys will be giving you a far nastier ass-raping when they've become investment bankers in a few years.

What's the present value of a much harsher assraping that occurs in 3-4 years? that's what you have to ask yourself.

jerseyhoya wrote:

traderdave wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Zogby has Runyan up three

Not that I'm going to get excited by that, because Zogby is the Jim Caple of the political polling universe, but at least it's not one of his completely useless online Interactive polls, so it might have some value.

My dad's been putting in a good bit of time volunteering at Runyan headquarters. He has thus far resisted my suggestions to wear a NY Giants shirt/hat to the office.

I am not asking this to pick a fight but purely out of curiosity; is your Dad volunteering because he believes Runyan to be the better candidate or because Runyan is GOP? Or is it impossible to separate those options? I just feel like any other year and Runyan would be down double-digits to a guy like Adler. And I really don't think Adler is any great shakes.

A congressman has three main functions: voting, constituent services, and crafting legislation. For junior members especially, voting is the most important. The most important vote any congressman takes is the vote for speaker. In the House, party control, even by a vote, is enough to dictate the agenda completely if you have party discipline.

Runyan wouldn't be beating Adler in a normal year, but it would be a competitive race. He's a freshman Dem in a swing district that tends to vote Republican in non-Presidential races.

How smart someone is or how "good of a candidate" they are is only worth so much, because it's really not that big of a part of the job. It's not like Adler is going to be writing any important laws any time soon either. He votes for Pelosi, Runyan will vote for Boehner.

You're leaving out representing the district--that is, making sure it gets its share of the pork. Highways, military bases, and so forth. In the good old days, this was probably the most important function of a representative, and was the main factor in many long congressional careers.

James Howard, a liberal dem of no particular brilliance was sent back to Washington again and again by the more or less Republican voters of Ocean and Monmouth Counties. I once asked my father, who was still at that time a moderate Republican why he voted for Howard. "He saved the Fort" meaning Fort Monmouth, where my father worked "and kept us from having to move to Alabama".

We got a call today asking us to campaign for Sestak. I explained that we live in NJ, not PA. The caller said he was reaching out to volunteers in neighboring states. I declined.

TV, when I started writing the post I was thinking of saying district services, to encompass standing up for the district in earmarking/appropriations stuff, other district specific policy concerns, as well as the constituent level services. And in NJ-03, obviously McGuire/Ft. Dix is huge, but it's not like Adler is on Armed Services or has any pull there like Saxton used to.

Unrelated note: 200 hours till polls open in the great Garden State

Really interesting ad from Meg Whitman

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SymmAC3-4zs[/youtube]

She's mostly fucked anyway it seems from the polls, but I like this ad a lot. She probably should have run it a few weeks ago when the race started getting away from her.

Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracker: Toomey building back up his lead. 47 to 42 over Sestak

Guess that first sample was just complete horse shit

jerseyhoya wrote:

traderdave wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Zogby has Runyan up three

Not that I'm going to get excited by that, because Zogby is the Jim Caple of the political polling universe, but at least it's not one of his completely useless online Interactive polls, so it might have some value.

My dad's been putting in a good bit of time volunteering at Runyan headquarters. He has thus far resisted my suggestions to wear a NY Giants shirt/hat to the office.

I am not asking this to pick a fight but purely out of curiosity; is your Dad volunteering because he believes Runyan to be the better candidate or because Runyan is GOP? Or is it impossible to separate those options? I just feel like any other year and Runyan would be down double-digits to a guy like Adler. And I really don't think Adler is any great shakes.

A congressman has three main functions: voting, constituent services, and crafting legislation. For junior members especially, voting is the most important. The most important vote any congressman takes is the vote for speaker. In the House, party control, even by a vote, is enough to dictate the agenda completely if you have party discipline.

Runyan wouldn't be beating Adler in a normal year, but it would be a competitive race. He's a freshman Dem in a swing district that tends to vote Republican in non-Presidential races.

How smart someone is or how "good of a candidate" they are is only worth so much, because it's really not that big of a part of the job. It's not like Adler is going to be writing any important laws any time soon either. He votes for Pelosi, Runyan will vote for Boehner.

As a political neophyte, I have to admit that I am still getting used to the concept that politics often rules over substance. Also, good point about Ocean County swinging GOP. Living under Democratic rule for so long here in Camden County I sometimes forget that there is a second party.

jerseyhoya wrote:TV, when I started writing the post I was thinking of saying district services, to encompass standing up for the district in earmarking/appropriations stuff, other district specific policy concerns, as well as the constituent level services. And in NJ-03, obviously McGuire/Ft. Dix is huge, but it's not like Adler is on Armed Services or has any pull there like Saxton used to.

Unrelated note: 200 hours till polls open in the great Garden State

Oh sure, but it is a reason that competence (and of course experience or seniority) matters. It's interesting that some Republicans are, in running against earmarks are even willing to attack (or at least not defend) projects in their own districts--Boozman is an example--Blanche Lincoln is talking a lot about the pork she's brought home and her role as chair of the Senate Ag committee.

GOP has no interest in compromise if it retakes House.

GOP House + Dem. Senate + Dem White House=2 years of total gridlock.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/125383-republicans-say-compromise-not-on-the-agenda

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:TV, when I started writing the post I was thinking of saying district services, to encompass standing up for the district in earmarking/appropriations stuff, other district specific policy concerns, as well as the constituent level services. And in NJ-03, obviously McGuire/Ft. Dix is huge, but it's not like Adler is on Armed Services or has any pull there like Saxton used to.

Unrelated note: 200 hours till polls open in the great Garden State

Oh sure, but it is a reason that competence (and of course experience or seniority) matters. It's interesting that some Republicans are, in running against earmarks are even willing to attack (or at least not defend) projects in their own districts--Boozman is an example--Blanche Lincoln is talking a lot about the pork she's brought home and her role as chair of the Senate Ag committee.

How's that going for her?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/25/bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

They certainly don't hide their intentions. These people are all about power. The pursuit of power and the retention of power. They have no plans or intention to help the people that elect them. Power is all they want.


Too bad, Mitch. You ain't getting the Senate this year. And if your party controls the House and carries out its stated goals, you ain't winning in 2012 either.

The headline on the article from The Hill is a little misleading--the stuff that they say they're not going to compromise on is hardly news. The interesting stuff is buried at the bottom--no shutdown of government over spending and Issa says he won't pursue impeachment.

And the idea that Republicans want Obama to be a one term President? Shocking.

Everyone needs to chill out a bit on this stuff.

jerseyhoya wrote:Really interesting ad from Meg Whitman

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SymmAC3-4zs[/youtube]

She's mostly #$&! anyway it seems from the polls, but I like this ad a lot. She probably should have run it a few weeks ago when the race started getting away from her.

That ad is pretty good. If there's one Republican anywhere I would be okay with winning this year, it's her. I don't live in California, but as a Democrat, if I did live there, I'm really not sure how I'd feel about punching the ballot for Jerry Brown. Is that really the best the Democrats can do in a state where they're the majority and should have a good bench of candidates?

TenuredVulture wrote:The headline on the article from The Hill is a little misleading--the stuff that they say they're not going to compromise on is hardly news. The interesting stuff is buried at the bottom--no shutdown of government over spending and Issa says he won't pursue impeachment.

And the idea that Republicans want Obama to be a one term President? Shocking.

Everyone needs to chill out a bit on this stuff.

Read it again. "The single most important thing we want to achieve".

Not finding a way out of Afghanistan. Not killing Osama Bin Laden. Not fixing the economy. Not reforming education or the federal government. Hell, not even cutting taxes for the wealthy, or repealing Roe v. Wade.

Disappointed to hear that polling has Toomey back ahead of Sestak. If Sestak doesn't win this time, I hope he goes for it again in 2016, unless maybe he decides to run for Governor in 2014.

In Maryland, the tea party rebellion doesn't seem to have much legs. Barbara Mikulski is cruising to re-election in the Senate and both the Baltimore Sun and Washington Post released polling in the past few days putting Gov. Martin O'Malley up 14 points over Republican challenger and former governor Bob Ehrlich.

The race to watch here to determine how big of a Republican year it's going to be is the first district, where first-term Democrat Frank Kratovil is in a tough rematch race with state senator Andy Harris, a right-winger with tea party backing. (Ehrlich, considered by some a moderate, is not tea party-backed.)

If Kratovil wins, I think that will be an early sign on election night that the Republicans maybe peaked early and will be on the lower side of their projections. If Harris wins, I'd say the House takeover is coming and the Republicans are going to make serious inroads in the Senate.

I think Sestak/Toomey and Adler/Runyan also will be good indicators. Wish I could say I was optimistic about them.

jerseyhoya wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:TV, when I started writing the post I was thinking of saying district services, to encompass standing up for the district in earmarking/appropriations stuff, other district specific policy concerns, as well as the constituent level services. And in NJ-03, obviously McGuire/Ft. Dix is huge, but it's not like Adler is on Armed Services or has any pull there like Saxton used to.

Unrelated note: 200 hours till polls open in the great Garden State

Oh sure, but it is a reason that competence (and of course experience or seniority) matters. It's interesting that some Republicans are, in running against earmarks are even willing to attack (or at least not defend) projects in their own districts--Boozman is an example--Blanche Lincoln is talking a lot about the pork she's brought home and her role as chair of the Senate Ag committee.

How's that going for her?

Well, it's obviously not working very well. But the politics of the Dems giving her that committee chair are pretty transparent. In a normal year, it would've cemented her re-election.

My question is are we seeing a real political movement where members of Congress work against pork that benefits their own districts? A politics where something like Bush's attempt to get the highway bill down to 250 billion or whatever against a threatened veto override might work?

kopphanatic wrote:GOP has no interest in compromise if it retakes House.

GOP House + Dem. Senate + Dem White House=2 years of total gridlock.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/125383-republicans-say-compromise-not-on-the-agenda

Likely what a large swath of the population is hoping for.