Camp Holdout wrote:colin powell breaking down why he is endorsing obama instead of mccain on Meet the Press. he is doing it quite well. really hitting on some great points.

another republican for obama. as soon as this clip is up on youtube ill link it here. it is really quite good.

here:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A4LfWhU0Uk[/youtube]

That almost made me cry at the end.

Obama is losing ground.

I am probably overreacting, but I can't wait for two years into the McCain presidency when everyone on here points and laughs at the people who voted for McCain and they say "Well if he was facing anyone but Barack Obama..."

mpmcgraw wrote:Obama is losing ground.

I am probably overreacting, but I can't wait for two years into the McCain presidency when everyone on here points and laughs at the people who voted for McCain and they say "Well if he was facing anyone but Barack Obama..."

I'll lay 8 to 1 odds on Obama winning and I'll still be ahead.

The Red Tornado wrote:

mpmcgraw wrote:Obama is losing ground.

I am probably overreacting, but I can't wait for two years into the McCain presidency when everyone on here points and laughs at the people who voted for McCain and they say "Well if he was facing anyone but Barack Obama..."

I'll lay 8 to 1 odds on Obama winning and I'll still be ahead.

I was making fun of the 538 odds the other day, back when it was like 95.9-4.1, and a guy at work said he thought that was about right. I offered to bet him 50 to win 400, and he wouldn't take me up on it.

I'd say McCain's at about 15-20% to win at this point. It doesn't look good, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever.

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Red Tornado wrote:

mpmcgraw wrote:Obama is losing ground.

I am probably overreacting, but I can't wait for two years into the McCain presidency when everyone on here points and laughs at the people who voted for McCain and they say "Well if he was facing anyone but Barack Obama..."

I'll lay 8 to 1 odds on Obama winning and I'll still be ahead.

I was making fun of the 538 odds the other day, back when it was like 95.9-4.1, and a guy at work said he thought that was about right. I offered to bet him 50 to win 400, and he wouldn't take me up on it.

I'd say McCain's at about 15-20% to win at this point. It doesn't look good, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever.

well taking only one long shot bet doesnt make sense as it doesnt make it worth the money unless you can get some really dumb odds.

The Red Tornado wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Red Tornado wrote:

mpmcgraw wrote:Obama is losing ground.

I am probably overreacting, but I can't wait for two years into the McCain presidency when everyone on here points and laughs at the people who voted for McCain and they say "Well if he was facing anyone but Barack Obama..."

I'll lay 8 to 1 odds on Obama winning and I'll still be ahead.

I was making fun of the 538 odds the other day, back when it was like 95.9-4.1, and a guy at work said he thought that was about right. I offered to bet him 50 to win 400, and he wouldn't take me up on it.

I'd say McCain's at about 15-20% to win at this point. It doesn't look good, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever.

well taking only one long shot bet doesnt make sense as it doesnt make it worth the money unless you can get some really dumb odds.

If he really thought it was a 1/25 shot, he'd be doing pretty well for himself.

He worked for Romney, he hates McCain, and he likes to gamble so I thought there was a pretty decent chance he would take me up on the offer.

you post that on the day West Virginia swings from a light blue state to a red state by 6 to 8 points.

jebus.

With a ~3 point difference in mid October from two major polling agencies and a trend shifting to McCain (or at least, a drop for Obama), this is hardly a done deal in my opinion.

Camp Holdout wrote:colin powell breaking down why he is endorsing obama instead of mccain on Meet the Press. he is doing it quite well. really hitting on some great points.

another republican for obama. as soon as this clip is up on youtube ill link it here. it is really quite good.

here:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A4LfWhU0Uk[/youtube]

You know how "those people" stick together. Of course he's going to support Obama.


/ McCain's next robocall.

Obama is about 5-6 points ahead. Silver wrote today that Zogby uses the same party ID weights from 2004, when the electorate was about 50-50. The Dems have a sizable partisan ID advantage now, and probably more enthusiasm, which helps. He's heavily out-advertising McCain, and by most accounts he has a stronger ground operation.

Not saying it's over, but it would take something extraordinary to change the dynamic now to the point where McCain would win: either some huge external event/scandal or a comprehensive flaw in all the polling (something like a bigger Bradley Effect than anyone has hypothesized, and nothing counterveiling like a big undercount of cellphone-only voters).

Hey, the Rays just won the pennant.

I think you are underestimating the effect racism will have on this election.

I hope I am wrong as usual.

dajafi wrote:Obama is about 5-6 points ahead. Silver wrote today that Zogby uses the same party ID weights from 2004, when the electorate was about 50-50. The Dems have a sizable partisan ID advantage now, and probably more enthusiasm, which helps. He's heavily out-advertising McCain, and by most accounts he has a stronger ground operation.

Not saying it's over, but it would take something extraordinary to change the dynamic now to the point where McCain would win: either some huge external event/scandal or a comprehensive flaw in all the polling (something like a bigger Bradley Effect than anyone has hypothesized, and nothing counterveiling like a big undercount of cellphone-only voters).

Hey, the Rays just won the pennant.

Also, the electoral college favors Obama.

mpmcgraw wrote:I think you are underestimating the effect racism will have on this election.

I hope I am wrong as usual.

Very sadly, I think you're right.

Where has there been any evidence of racism influencing a poll in 2008?

I said election not these polls.

mpmcgraw wrote:I said election not these polls.

we get it.

VoxOrion wrote:Where has there been any evidence of racism influencing a poll in 2008?

No one answers polls honestly.

If you ask a racist person "did race impact your vote", do you expect to get an honest answer?

VoxOrion wrote:Where has there been any evidence of racism influencing a poll in 2008?

I feel so hopelessly out of touch. In my experience I have come across plenty of people who could never imagine voting for a black person for president. And I don't mean virulent racists and I certainly don't mean republicans. I mean people for whom blacks are always the "other", who fear them or have left the city and blame them or simply see them as somehow different and something to be wary of. These people I can easily see being swayed by arguments that Obama is somehow dangerous or mysterious, if they needed to be swayed at all.

I'm sure you can come back and say what about all the people who will vote for Obama simply because he is black. My thought would be that virtually all of of the people who could be swayed by this reason would have voted Democratic anyway, with maybe a few Green party guys tossed in. However, many, though certainly not all who might be hesitant to select Obama due to race are part of a traditional democratic base. And yes I can see it as quite likely they would respond one way to a pollster and a different way in the privacy of a polling booth.

I've met, worked with, known well, plenty of people like this over the course of my life, many of them decent people in other ways, but also happy to dismiss, fear or ridicule blacks and bear with them at all times a constant if low-level "suburban" racism(by which I mean the tenor of the attitude, not a geographical location). Obama may very well have won some of these people over, but there's no way I can see that it is not an issue.

But again I must just be seeing my fellow citizens through oldhead glasses and while I was spending more time in the rest room we entered a color-blind society.