livestock, lipstick, and liquidity: politics thread

Postby meatball » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:18:51

jerseyhoya wrote:Obama's response should be to suggest changing the topic of the debate on Friday to how to solve the nation's fiscal crisis.


I thought I heard/read somewhere that a topic change was actually being considered. Maybe it was here. Oh who knows. I think it's a great idea nonetheless.

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Postby Woody » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:20:15

Sarah Palin's accent really is quite striking.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:23:07

Honestly I have no idea what to think about this from McCain. I guess it's a good move. It's not like we were doing well. Might was well knock the chess board off the table and start over.

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Postby dajafi » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:27:22

jerseyhoya wrote:Honestly I have no idea what to think about this from McCain. I guess it's a good move. It's not like we were doing well. Might was well knock the chess board off the table and start over.


That's the sense I get--it's an act of gamesmanship.

Not saying that judgmentally (or at least not towards you; let's put it that way)... but in that McCain's whole core appeal is that supposedly he's not a game-playing BS artist, he could be running another risk here.

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Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:27:27

dajafi wrote:
Camp Holdout wrote:mccain has asked to postpone the friday debate to "work on the economy"...


Not just postpone the debate--he's "suspending his campaign."

The political atmospherics--"I'm putting country first and working on the most pressing problem rather than just trying to win for my own glory like whatsisname"--are clear enough. But I'm not sure exactly what he's going to do. Give Paulson an atomic wedgie until he accepts more reasonable terms for the bailout? Have a long argument with Phil Gramm?



He's putting pressure on everyone to get something done fast. "Look, you're holding up the election and our economy is in ruins, get something done NOW."

Of course he wants it done fast, the longer this is the topic of the day, the more chances there will be to point out McCain advisors' roles in the problem.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:29:29

dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Honestly I have no idea what to think about this from McCain. I guess it's a good move. It's not like we were doing well. Might was well knock the chess board off the table and start over.


That's the sense I get--it's an act of gamesmanship.

Not saying that judgmentally (or at least not towards you; let's put it that way)... but in that McCain's whole core appeal is that supposedly he's not a game-playing BS artist, he could be running another risk here.


That said, this really is a big fucking deal, way more important than the campaign in the short term, and they should be involved in the nuts and bolts of this since one of them is going to be the next president.

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Postby Woody » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:32:14

jerseyhoya wrote:
That said, this really is a big $#@! deal, way more important than the campaign in the short term


All the more reason to have the debate and focus it on this issue, really

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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:33:11

Is the word really "suspending"? Isn't that what candidates say just before they withdraw?

Nothing on Redstate yet.

Seems to me the one likely outcome here is more financial panic. "Things are so bad we're suspending campaigning at the very height of the political season? Physical gold is where I want to be for that."

It also seems likely to be a McCain shoot first think about it later move.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:34:46

Woody wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:That said, this really is a big $#@! deal, way more important than the campaign in the short term


All the more reason to have the debate and focus it on this issue, really


Indeed. Which is why I think Obama's counter should be to offer changing the topic of the debate. I doubt McCain's spoiling to have that debate, but I'm not sure saying no to that request would be all that politically feasible.

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Postby dajafi » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:36:05

jerseyhoya wrote:
dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Honestly I have no idea what to think about this from McCain. I guess it's a good move. It's not like we were doing well. Might was well knock the chess board off the table and start over.


That's the sense I get--it's an act of gamesmanship.

Not saying that judgmentally (or at least not towards you; let's put it that way)... but in that McCain's whole core appeal is that supposedly he's not a game-playing BS artist, he could be running another risk here.


That said, this really is a big $#@! deal, way more important than the campaign in the short term, and they should be involved in the nuts and bolts of this since one of them is going to be the next president.


That's a fair point, as is the idea that an action like this can be both politically motivated and responsible from a governance standpoint. Maybe I'm just too cynical at this point to give anyone (Obama too) the benefit of that kind of doubt.
Last edited by dajafi on Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:36:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:36:12

I think the American people probably want to hear more campaigning, not less.
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Postby dajafi » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:37:32

I'm not proud to admit it... but my interest in that debate going forward as scheduled probably has more to do with whether the Phils get rained out Friday night than anything else.

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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:40:32

dajafi wrote:I'm not proud to admit it... but my interest in that debate going forward as scheduled probably has more to do with whether the Phils get rained out Friday night than anything else.


In terms of dajafi's happiness, which would be bigger--an Obama Presidency, or a Phillies World Series win? Certainly, the latter in the short and probably even intermediate term. Long term, well, since when do we make choices based on rational calculations of long term happiness?

I'm not even going to ask Jerseyhoya, as I know what he'd pick.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:44:50

Market appears unhappy with McCain's announcement. I think you do something like this by the way when your internal campaigning portends a Dukakis like disaster.
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Postby dajafi » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:46:28

TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:I'm not proud to admit it... but my interest in that debate going forward as scheduled probably has more to do with whether the Phils get rained out Friday night than anything else.


In terms of dajafi's happiness, which would be bigger--an Obama Presidency, or a Phillies World Series win? Certainly, the latter in the short and probably even intermediate term. Long term, well, since when do we make choices based on rational calculations of long term happiness?

I'm not even going to ask Jerseyhoya, as I know what he'd pick.


All I'll say is that, after spending a long time between my own ears looking for one, there is no easy answer to this question.

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:47:46

dajafi wrote:
Camp Holdout wrote:mccain has asked to postpone the friday debate to "work on the economy"...


Not just postpone the debate--he's "suspending his campaign."


I think that by "suspending his campaign" "to work on the economy," McCain means "taking a few days off to cram in a study session or two before going up against Obama in a situation where the topic is bound to come up."
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:48:35

TenuredVulture wrote:
dajafi wrote:I'm not proud to admit it... but my interest in that debate going forward as scheduled probably has more to do with whether the Phils get rained out Friday night than anything else.


In terms of dajafi's happiness, which would be bigger--an Obama Presidency, or a Phillies World Series win? Certainly, the latter in the short and probably even intermediate term. Long term, well, since when do we make choices based on rational calculations of long term happiness?

I'm not even going to ask Jerseyhoya, as I know what he'd pick.


It's closer than you would think. I am going to be unemployed by New Year, and my chances of finding a job are improved by having an administration staffed with young Republicans. I'd still probably pick a World Series, but not by all that much.

I'd be very happy if either were to happen, as it's less than 50/50 at this point combined probably.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:51:33

mozartpc27 wrote:
dajafi wrote:
Camp Holdout wrote:mccain has asked to postpone the friday debate to "work on the economy"...


Not just postpone the debate--he's "suspending his campaign."


I think that by "suspending his campaign" "to work on the economy," McCain means "taking a few days off to cram in a study session or two before going up against Obama in a situation where the topic is bound to come up."


No.

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Postby Philly the Kid » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:53:50

dajafi wrote:
Camp Holdout wrote:mccain has asked to postpone the friday debate to "work on the economy"...


Not just postpone the debate--he's "suspending his campaign."

The political atmospherics--"I'm putting country first and working on the most pressing problem rather than just trying to win for my own glory like whatsisname"--are clear enough. But I'm not sure exactly what he's going to do. Give Paulson an atomic wedgie until he accepts more reasonable terms for the bailout? Have a long argument with Phil Gramm?


Could the real motivation be, that he knows Obama could shred him on this issue in a debate right now and he needs more time to be ready to mis-direct with slicker answers?

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Postby FTN » Wed Sep 24, 2008 15:54:21

I've actually spent 15 years in the financial sector, and I actually understand the credit crisis - and there is a crisis, no matter what the multitudes who don't know jack about it say.

Two quick points on the above post and I'll leave you alone:

[David Cay] Johnston is way too smart a guy to be tossing around meaningless personal anecdotes as evidence of the absence of a credit crunch. The crunch doesn't start in the consumer sector, that's where it ends. It starts in the financial sector, and this very real, easily measurable crunch has been intermittently entering the red zone for several weeks. I won't bother playing unknown, self-proclaimed expert here. Just do a google news search for "overnight lending rate" and let the financial news explain it to you. Better yet, google "TED spread" and check out the stats. They're scary - scary in a way that hasn't been seen since the late-Carter and early-Reagan years (when we had 17% interest rates for prime mortgages). Bad mortgages are incidental, at this point.

Second, as for your point about "enticement" of Wall Street, I totally agree that we should just swoop down and take control of the whole lot of them. But what Paulson and Bernanke are getting at is that there's a very distinct division of labor in finance, and that the corner of Wall Street which produced this mess is wholly operated by testosterone-fueled assholes with God complexes. Even now, while the straight banking and insurance sectors are pissing their pants, the douchebags that crapped out this whole mess still think they're invincible. I know I'm getting a little "strawman" here, but I know these jerks. They really believe that don't need bailed out. They think they can cook up some new, crazy derivative to sit on top of the failed credit default swaps, restore the Wild West credit market (and by extension, liquidity), and make a shitload of money. They're complete idiots. Diabolical, narcissistic idiots, but idiots nonetheless. Bernanke and Paulson quite rightly fear that a voluntary program that isn't full of gimmes and profits will have no participants and will solve nothing. These guys (and a few women) are already rich beyond most people's wildest dreams, and don't believe that can ever change. I think Paulson and Bernanke really fear that these assholes will continue to take a series of increasingly big, stinky dumps on the global economy if we don't kiss their asses and beg them to let us buy their shit. Again, I think we should be sending jackbooted thugs into their $12M meat-packing district co-ops and take every last saleable thing they own and give it to Sarah Palin to auction on eBay.

Sorry - I ended up rambling anyway. As I think you can guess, I'm getting really fed up with this emerging "there's no crisis" meme. It's fueled entirely by ignorance and fury over a too-clever-by-half Republican political rope-a-dope. Keep reading Krugman, etc. They get it.


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