livestock, lipstick, and liquidity: politics thread

Postby Woody » Tue Sep 23, 2008 22:39:10

Berkshire Hathaway is going to invest like a gazillion in Goldman Sachs ($5B, with possible more later I think)

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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Sep 23, 2008 22:40:39

Woody wrote:Berkshire Hathaway is going to invest like a gazillion in Goldman Sachs ($5B, with possible more later I think)


That helps me a bit.
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Postby Woody » Tue Sep 23, 2008 22:43:49

TV owns like 1000 A shares of Berkshire, he's actually just a professor for fun

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Postby FTN » Tue Sep 23, 2008 22:44:35

jerseyhoya wrote:The Kramer/Pearlstein thing Floppy referenced earlier that was on MSNBC, they said basically it would be a 700 billion investment, with a 200 billion plus or minus range on potential profit/loss for the government, and it was vital to do for stability.


right, I should have added that part. I assumed Pearlstein would have something in the Post today on what he discussed, but I didnt see anything.

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Postby Woody » Tue Sep 23, 2008 22:58:46

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he has no preference between the U.S. presidential candidates.


Can you imagine being the guy that had been endorsed by Ahmadinejad? Doomsday. I can picture the ads now

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Postby threecount » Tue Sep 23, 2008 23:31:57

New polls out tonight have Obama taking the surprising lead in Florida by a couple of points.

I would think that a lot of the seniors down there, panicked and worried this past week when they saw what was happening with their investments on Wall Street.

Obama is staying in Florida for the next three days to prepare for the debate on Friday and has a rally scheduled tommorow in Dunedin, right next to Clearwater.

The only "Kerry" state that Obama may lose right now could be New Hampshire. Unlike others, I don't think PA or Michigan is in play. On the other hand, I could see Obama grabbing former red-states like New Mexico, Colorado, or maybe even Indiana and Ohio, which is close again.

Even North Carolina is in play, but I don't see that turning blue.

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Postby swishnicholson » Tue Sep 23, 2008 23:58:38

VoxOrion wrote:On NPR the head of the Texas Reserve Bank (or something) was saying that the $700 billion (or $2 Trillion) won't all be laid on tax payers - the Fed will be buying tons of mortgages at fire sale prices and will almost certianly make good profits selling them back or holding them for later.

Or something.


That segment was pretty good about answering some basic questions about the (what? bailout? crisis? I don't really like any of these terms) situation for the economically obtuse like me, although McTeer came across as generally too sanguine about all aspects to be truly convincing, and my faith in the government to turn a profit is pretty limited. I generally felt Ydstie's explanations were more on point.

Some others might want a listen:


http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=94900655&m=94900627
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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Wed Sep 24, 2008 00:28:29

FBI Probing Fannie, Freddie, AIG, & Lehman

Fraud... or as they put it, "accounting misstatements". The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating them.
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Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Sep 24, 2008 03:06:06

First the Insurrection Act shenanigans, now the Posse Comitatus Act is being ignored.


Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1

Beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the 1st BCT will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command, as an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.

It is not the first time an active-duty unit has been tapped to help at home. In August 2005, for example, when Hurricane Katrina unleashed hell in Mississippi and Louisiana, several active-duty units were pulled from various posts and mobilized to those areas.

But this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.

-------------------------------------

Training for homeland scenarios has already begun at Fort Stewart and includes specialty tasks such as knowing how to use the “jaws of life” to extract a person from a mangled vehicle; extra medical training for a CBRNE incident; and working with U.S. Forestry Service experts on how to go in with chainsaws and cut and clear trees to clear a road or area.

The 1st BCT’s soldiers also will learn how to use “the first ever nonlethal package that the Army has fielded,” 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier said, referring to crowd and traffic control equipment and nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals without killing them.

“It’s a new modular package of nonlethal capabilities that they’re fielding. They’ve been using pieces of it in Iraq, but this is the first time that these modules were consolidated and this package fielded, and because of this mission we’re undertaking we were the first to get it.”




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Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Sep 24, 2008 04:03:01

drsmooth wrote:
jeff2sf wrote:What do you want smoothy? And talk like a normal person when you lay it out for me, as if I'm at a 5th grade level (which may be about my level of smarts compared to you).


what do I want?

I'm not sure how that's relevant to my observations about what I see taking place.

But sure, I'll humor you.

Paulson & Bernanke (and scores of Wall St suits) want you & me & congress to believe that a solution to the current mess is a simple matter of applied economics, applied according to their tidy, albeit hastily scrawled, blueprint.

which is b u l l s h i t, of course.

in application, economics and politics bleed sloppily into one another, which makes sense, since each are sloppy attempts to abstract (mostly)human behavior for academic study. Leaving out the politics leaves out reality - the slop.

I don't give a damn for 'calming the market', because there is no entity 'the market' - I want all of that sort of nonsensical jabber ceased. Part of me wants these tinhorn econofascists shown up - upbraided, belittled, scorned & humiliated for days on end, because I enjoy it. Others should to, enjoy it until you can't forget what it means, which is they do not know best for you, or me, or anyone really. They know what they want, & they want it because it is good for them, rather than for you, or for me.

Another part of me wants these very smart guys to do a very good, very thorough, very persuasive explanation of why what they want to do is very good for all of us - for "our way of life" - , or at least for an overwhelming many of us.

Might their plan be good for you & me somehow? Sure. They should be prepared to tell you, & me, & everybody, at excruciating, detailed length, how & why.

I'm not gonna be content to believe they know what they're doing. I want to be convinced.

That's what I want.

As long as it does not pre-empt any phillies post-season games.




A public debate on the plan and 100% transparency would be nice, since we're a democracy and all. I'm not holding my breath, though it's nice that everyone didn't roll over for the initial plan.

And I don't know how you guys can trust Paulson considering the first plan he helped devise (huge bailout with no strings and literally zero oversight), not to mention the fact that he didn't see this trouble coming in the first place.
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Postby Wizlah » Wed Sep 24, 2008 06:16:14

FTN wrote: This crisis really is hurting institutions that lend money. No one is willing to lend money right now, not even to corporations (like McDonalds) who want to use the money to make improvements in areas that affect the average consumer. The more Congress drags its feet on this trying to murk up the waters, the bigger the impact.


When one of the large UK providers (northern rock) nearly went down and was taken over by the government , back in december and january, it quickly became apparent that despite two quick interest rate cuts by the bank of england, commercial rates weren't shifting, and the conclusion everyone came to was that the financial institutions were crapping themselves about liquidity. So far, so old news. But, I'm curious as to why this took so long to happen in the states, unless it's the old adage that the UK caught a cold when ye guys had a sniffle.

On a related note, I was searching through my undergrad memory banks for noted financial crashes where the crisis was fed by banks not wanting to lend. I mean, a run on a bank is always about liquidity, but I wondered whether this was a fairly new factor in a financial crash. If cutting interest rates is not up to the job (as has been the case in the UK), and state buyouts are not steadying investors nerves, it would suggest that our technical knowhow (however approximate, doc) is not at all suited to the challenge, and so, by inference, this is a fairly new problem. Happy to be proved wrong on that, but I was just curious. Maybe it isn't that new a problem, and we're just really bad at sorting it out.
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Postby VoxOrion » Wed Sep 24, 2008 07:52:21

I'm going to preceed all of my posts with "On NPR I heard".
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Postby jeff2sf » Wed Sep 24, 2008 07:59:27

The problem I have with what Monkeyboy and Doc are saying is that you both throw around "transparency" and "no strings attached" too easily. Of course there were strings attached to the 700 billion. They're not the strings YOU would like to attach, but hey, that's why the plan is being negotiated. As for transparency, I tend to think 3 months is too long to go between revealing what was bought and weekly is too short of a time. I also think 99.5% of the people could not evaluate what the heck was going on even if everyone is transparent.

The idea that everyone is an expert has become very popular during this crisis with lots of lefty liberals who normally are worrying about secret shoppers at their work saying stuff like "Why didn't this idiot Bernanke or Paulson see this coming? It was sooo obvious"
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Postby VoxOrion » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:08:29

I find this entire thing baffling. I not only feel helpless in terms of forming an opinion, but in trusting that the folks who intend to do something will to the right thing. There's ideology and perspective mixed up in this, and I can't even tell what is ideology and what is a representation of "fact based" sound economic guesswork.

I know I'd prefer to let a failed private institution fail, but I feel like the cost is very high to allow that to happen in this case because of the nature of these businesses (sorry, I'm not sweating the little guy and his job). No one has a clear answer on what the implications are for letting the business fail, and "bailing out" (which I've heard is an inappropriate description of what is happening) might just be a band-aid that we'll regret in short order.
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Postby drsmooth » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:23:48

jeff2sf wrote:The problem I have with what Monkeyboy and Doc are saying is that you both throw around "transparency" and "no strings attached" too easily. Of course there were strings attached to the 700 billion. They're not the strings YOU would like to attach, but hey, that's why the plan is being negotiated.


fair enough, jeff. fill me in on these strings you speak of & what you like about them; but your confidence in paulson has me itching to pitch you a deal on a timeshare in boca.
Last edited by drsmooth on Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:25:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby drsmooth » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:25:28

VoxOrion wrote: There's ideology and perspective mixed up in this, and I can't even tell what is ideology and what is a representation of "fact based" sound economic guesswork.


try a simpler means of making the distinction you posit:

compare your bank statement with your best estimate of Paulson's.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:32:21

VoxOrion wrote:I find this entire thing baffling. I not only feel helpless in terms of forming an opinion, but in trusting that the folks who intend to do something will to the right thing. There's ideology and perspective mixed up in this, and I can't even tell what is ideology and what is a representation of "fact based" sound economic guesswork.



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Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:43:45

Image

These are probably going to be a lot more common as critical swing states attract ever more fly by night polling operations.
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Postby Wizlah » Wed Sep 24, 2008 08:45:24

VoxOrion wrote:I know I'd prefer to let a failed private institution fail, but I feel like the cost is very high to allow that to happen in this case because of the nature of these businesses (sorry, I'm not sweating the little guy and his job).


Really? Because it does seem like if a lot of these businesses went down, that's a nice hefty leap in your unemployed figures, at at time when many companies will be worried about taking on new labour. No matter how limited your unemployment benefit may be, that's still a cost to the treasury, and running the risk of bumping up your Long-Term Unemployed (6 months of more folks).
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Sep 24, 2008 09:04:50

Would it be unconstitutional to set up some sort of ad hoc committee consisting of congressmen, Senators, administration officials and maybe a private citizen or two of note to decide where the bailout money goes?

Like say Barney Frank, Spence Bauchus, Chris Dodd, Richard Shelby, Hank Paulson and Robert Rubin all sat at a table and they needed a majority to approve the money going somewhere?

Also, why the fuck are both ranking members of the banking committees from Alabama?

Additionally, McCain's gonna lose this election unless we have something really nasty on Obama saved up and/or a global war breaks out between now and November. Yikes, nine points, WaPo/ABC?

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