By an incredibly slim margin. Seriously. Which Obama closed by 20%, give or take, in the last couple of months.

jerseyhoya wrote:Not true. A very real part of the story is more than half of the Democratic base in one of the three or four most important states electorally in the whole country prefers someone who is not going to be the nominee of their party.

Edit - Re: Bakestar's point.

Let's hold off on how incredibly thin. It could end up being double digits still. Somehow she's winning Delaware County and slaughtering him in Bucks. If he's not winning the Philly burbs, this will still be a big ouchy.

jerseyhoya wrote:Not true. A very real part of the story is more than half of the Democratic base in one of the three or four most important states electorally in the whole country prefers someone who is not going to be the nominee of their party.

Edit - Re: Bakestar's point.

But does that mean they wouldn't support Obama in November, especially since he was competitive in those states?

(Real question...I'm a political n00b. Just doesn't seem like a logical argument to me.)

Most of them will, but some won't.

From tonight's exit poll.

Vote for President in November

Obama (72%)

McCain (15%)

Would Not Vote (10%)

Hillary begging for coin.

Also, open GOP seat in Mississippi that we should win EASILY might go to a runoff, though looks like we might squeak past 50%. That would be nice. Actually, it doesn't look like we'll squeak past 50% at all.

Looks like it will be in the area of 8-10 points.

In other words, absolutely nothing changes, as that was the expected difference.

That said, I think it ends in two weeks' time, unless Obama makes some gruesome mistake and loses Indiana by a decent-sized margin. In which case we keep going until the convention.

What a screwed up party. I can not wait to leave it.

We're now losing in MS-01. Unreal. I can't wait to watch how much money we waste trying to save it in the next month.

jerseyhoya wrote:Let's hold off on how incredibly thin. It could end up being double digits still. Somehow she's winning Delaware County and slaughtering him in Bucks. If he's not winning the Philly burbs, this will still be a big ouchy.

does it always squeak when you spin?

really distracting

jerseyhoya wrote:We're now losing in MS-01. Unreal. I can't wait to watch how much money we waste trying to save it in the next month.

Based on very little, Childers seems similar to Huckabee. There has always been a strong social conservative/populist tradition in Southern politics. But in recent years few in either party have been willing to run that way.

drsmooth wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Let's hold off on how incredibly thin. It could end up being double digits still. Somehow she's winning Delaware County and slaughtering him in Bucks. If he's not winning the Philly burbs, this will still be a big ouchy.

does it always squeak when you spin?

really distracting

It's not spinning to call losing a state by 8%/200,000ish votes "incredibly thin." It's spinning to point out that might not be properly defined as incredibly thin.

Point of reference: Kerry beat Bush by less than 7% in New Jersey in 2004.

We "lost" MS-01 49-47. Woo! Time for another 400k down the tubes for the NRCC.

We weren't losing seats like this frequently in 2006. It hasn't gotten any better.

LOL at the THREE Abercrombie & Fitch dudes right behind Obama.

3 interesting things I heard on MSNBC

Olbermann - She's not so much running for something or against the Republicans so much as she's simply running against Obama. Not much of a general election strategy there to 'unite' the party or get independents

Matthews - The Clintons really believe it's their party and they can do with it what they want

Russert - They keep trying to buy time in order to get to convention to sway party leaders. Look at all the establishment behind her

BTW, I noticed that once again it's split by age more than anything else. Freaking old people.

I love how 10% is now some great victory in an old-heavy state where she was up 20 going in. THE GOALPOSTS KEEP MOVING. Classic, really


According to FOX News, 43% of Clinton voters will either vote McCain or stay home if Obam's the nominee. 28% vice-versa. Sheesh people are petty morons

Pat Buchanan is the dumbest man on the face of the earth

pacino wrote:BTW, I noticed that once again it's split by age more than anything else. Freaking old people.

I love how 10% is now some great victory in an old-heavy state where she was up 20 going in. THE GOALPOSTS KEEP MOVING. Classic, really


According to FOX News, 43% of Clinton voters will either vote McCain or stay home if Obam's the nominee. 28% vice-versa. Sheesh people are petty morons

Pacino, you're the one setting up the goal posts. She just won PA by 200k votes while getting outspent 3-1. Just because she's up 20% in some poll a few months before the populace starts paying attention due to name ID doesn't mean that's where the goalposts are set up.

She's been behind the entire time and refuses to drop out when she is just about a mathematical impossibility. First she had to hit it out of the park on Super Tuesday. Then it was all about Texas and Ohio when that didn't work out. When she didn't do as well as expected, it was then to Pennsylvania. Now it's to Indiana. Then Guam!

pacino wrote:3 interesting things I heard on MSNBC

Olbermann - She's not so much running for something or against the Republicans so much as she's simply running against Obama. Not much of a general election strategy there to 'unite' the party or get independents

Matthews - The Clintons really believe it's their party and they can do with it what they want

Russert - They keep trying to buy time in order to get to convention to sway party leaders. Look at all the establishment behind her

My theory throughout has been that even if she somehow kills Obama's chances, it's a murder-suicide: she can't win without the constituencies he pretty much owns (over-educated big-city libburls who can do what I did tonight and send his campaign $25 basically because she pisses me off, and African-Americans who now reject the Clintons by about 9 to 1). So how can she possibly "sway party leaders"?

The truth is that the Democrats would have been unbeatable this year if they'd quickly moved to nominate Edwards... and that he probably would have done better had the mortgage feces hit the fan a little sooner. But this widely hated, entirely unelectable and seemingly ethics-free woman won't Go. Away. ... and her continued presence, and the gutter campaign she's run, does call into question whether the country will elect an African-American.

Still, it's worth the effort, and I think he's head and shoulders above any of the others who ran--most of whom (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) I liked.

dajafi wrote:

pacino wrote:3 interesting things I heard on MSNBC

Olbermann - She's not so much running for something or against the Republicans so much as she's simply running against Obama. Not much of a general election strategy there to 'unite' the party or get independents

Matthews - The Clintons really believe it's their party and they can do with it what they want

Russert - They keep trying to buy time in order to get to convention to sway party leaders. Look at all the establishment behind her

My theory throughout has been that even if she somehow kills Obama's chances, it's a murder-suicide: she can't win without the constituencies he pretty much owns (over-educated big-city libburls who can do what I did tonight and send his campaign $25 basically because she pisses me off, and African-Americans who now reject the Clintons by about 9 to 1). So how can she possibly "sway party leaders"?

The truth is that the Democrats would have been unbeatable this year if they'd quickly moved to nominate Edwards... and that he probably would have done better had the mortgage feces hit the fan a little sooner. But this widely hated, entirely unelectable and seemingly ethics-free woman won't Go. Away. ... and her continued presence, and the gutter campaign she's run, does call into question whether the country will elect an African-American.

Still, it's worth the effort, and I think he's head and shoulders above any of the others who ran--most of whom (Edwards, Dodd, Biden) I liked.

But she offered him the vice-prez! she's willing to cooperate, he's not!