A Final Ode to Coal Hummus and other Phillies Thoughts

by **Grotewold** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 13:23:17

Nola rates pretty highly on my proprietary GroteX

by **my cousin mose** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 13:33:05

Aaron Nola!

by **Werthless** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 16:25:33

JFLNYC wrote:Heyward's never hit 7 WAR has hit 5+ twice in his 6-year career, averages about 4 WAR/year and is on pace for about 4 this year. He hasn't had an OPS above .776 since 2012. He played 140+ games only 3 out of his first 5 years, so he's got significant injury risk, too. He's not a safe bet for 5-7 wins per year over the next 6-7 years.

I have a hard time naming 10 hitters who I would bet on having a better 6 year WAR. And these hitters are generally not available.

Trout
Harper
Machado
Arenado
McCutchen
Stanton
Goldschmidt
Bryant?
Betts?
Pederson?

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 17:05:34

Shore wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Heyward's never hit 7 WAR has hit 5+ twice in his 6-year career, averages about 4 WAR/year and is on pace for about 4 this year. He hasn't had an OPS above .776 since 2012. He played 140+ games only 3 out of his first 5 years, so he's got significant injury risk, too. He's not a safe bet for 5-7 wins per year over the next 6-7 years.

You can cherry pick, if you'd like.

He's either averaged 4.92 or 4.34 WAR per year, depending on whether you trust BBREF or FG. And he's on pace this year for either 5.1 or 4.1, again, depending. Which means BBREF has him as a 5-win player, average, from ages 20-25. And FG has him at 4.3 per year, ages 20-24. He's on pace to play 155 games this year, which would put him at 139 games/year. He missed 50+ games in 2013 after having his jaw broken by a pitch; if that makes one an injury risk, I guess you can call him that. I'd say it's an aberration, which means he averages nearly 150 games per year, otherwise.

What I find really fascinating is the list of guys who've played as many games as he has thorugh their age 25 season, and had at least average success (OPS+ >= 100). There are only 55 players ever, including Heyward. And MOST of the list is really really impressive:

Code: Select all
Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ G From To Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Ty Cobb 55.8 180 1021 1905 1912 18-25 4339 3917 738 1433 230 109 43 684 286 324 37 402 34 .366 .414 .513 .927 2 Mickey Mantle 52.2 174 952 1951 1957 19-25 4114 3418 763 1080 164 49 207 669 670 35 653 5 59 19 .316 .427 .574 1.002 3 Rogers Hornsby 46.9 165 858 1915 1921 19-25 3576 3184 500 1073 165 90 57 486 295 285 28 84 30 .337 .398 .499 .897 4 Alex Rodriguez 46.3 142 952 1994 2001 18-25 4247 3758 760 1167 228 14 241 730 385 15 747 47 151 39 .311 .378 .571 .949 5 Jimmie Foxx 45.2 171 959 1925 1933 17-25 3940 3323 737 1127 196 66 222 830 556 470 6 31 36 .339 .435 .638 1.073 6 Mel Ott 44.1 153 1136 1926 1934 17-25 4649 3949 799 1249 224 41 211 846 622 301 21 38 .316 .412 .554 .966 7 Ken Griffey 40.2 147 917 1989 1995 19-25 3920 3440 570 1039 201 19 189 585 426 106 530 18 92 43 .302 .379 .536 .915 8 Arky Vaughan 39.4 147 849 1932 1937 20-25 3712 3164 572 1057 166 78 58 501 466 148 27 40 .334 .424 .491 .915 9 Eddie Mathews 38.9 154 880 1952 1957 20-25 3807 3206 606 902 147 33 222 586 561 42 522 7 29 15 .281 .388 .556 .943 10 Hank Aaron 38.5 151 886 1954 1959 20-25 3866 3524 612 1137 205 46 179 617 281 59 315 13 20 9 .323 .372 .559 .931 11 Andruw Jones 37.6 112 981 1996 2002 19-25 3971 3520 574 940 188 23 185 559 377 28 745 39 114 40 .267 .342 .491 .833 12 Albert Pujols 37.5 167 790 2001 2005 21-25 3428 2954 629 982 227 11 201 621 401 70 344 44 29 15 .332 .416 .621 1.037 13 Frank Robinson 37.4 146 888 1956 1961 20-25 3790 3286 618 994 177 34 202 573 392 55 491 66 81 24 .302 .384 .561 .946 14 Al Kaline 36.0 128 1051 1953 1960 18-25 4405 3919 598 1200 185 38 140 612 409 44 336 19 70 35 .306 .372 .480 .851 15 Johnny Bench 35.4 128 934 1967 1973 19-25 3880 3444 504 922 159 15 179 616 371 68 553 8 24 22 .268 .336 .479 .814 16 Cesar Cedeno 35.1 133 970 1970 1976 19-25 4126 3735 597 1097 221 33 121 523 318 43 506 29 313 98 .294 .351 .468 .819 17 Vada Pinson 34.8 123 962 1958 1964 19-25 4228 3899 661 1177 216 61 125 530 275 19 522 18 139 47 .302 .349 .485 .833 18 Cal Ripken 34.5 129 830 1981 1986 20-25 3562 3210 529 927 183 20 133 472 313 10 417 10 11 13 .289 .351 .483 .834 19 Rickey Henderson 34.1 132 791 1979 1984 20-25 3488 2916 586 850 129 29 51 271 520 21 416 20 493 138 .291 .400 .408 .808 20 Sherry Magee 33.9 145 984 1904 1910 19-25 4091 3582 552 1062 205 96 28 553 349 301 53 287 .296 .367 .431 .798 21 Roberto Alomar 29.4 116 914 1988 1993 20-25 4032 3551 548 1054 181 37 56 395 372 23 436 20 247 65 .297 .364 .416 .780 22 Joe Medwick 29.3 148 788 1932 1937 20-25 3406 3224 573 1101 258 65 110 634 154 291 14 22 .342 .374 .564 .938 23 Jim Fregosi 28.6 118 844 1961 1967 19-25 3487 3102 410 859 128 45 67 335 297 13 495 15 51 25 .277 .341 .412 .753 24 Travis Jackson 27.6 106 899 1922 1929 18-25 3633 3284 474 969 162 47 81 492 239 299 4 45 13 .295 .344 .447 .791 25 Jason Heyward 27.5 113 775 2010 2015 20-25 3189 2797 415 739 145 18 93 325 341 13 605 32 78 26 .264 .349 .429 .778 26 Ron Santo 27.0 123 898 1960 1965 20-25 3793 3359 433 933 168 35 137 524 385 36 512 13 18 16 .278 .351 .471 .822 27 Joe Torre 26.0 133 787 1960 1966 19-25 3101 2799 358 840 125 18 112 429 251 29 371 28 7 19 .300 .361 .478 .839 28 Orlando Cepeda 25.7 140 920 1958 1963 20-25 3849 3566 571 1105 196 20 191 650 209 56 533 41 83 41 .310 .352 .537 .889 29 Ivan Rodriguez 24.7 101 880 1991 1997 19-25 3516 3264 445 948 192 15 88 417 181 26 419 28 26 16 .290 .330 .439 .770 30 Adrian Beltre 23.3 108 966 1998 2004 19-25 3818 3462 456 949 176 18 147 510 286 32 590 27 62 26 .274 .332 .463 .794 31 Johnny Callison 23.3 123 780 1958 1964 19-25 3131 2794 436 771 130 49 102 366 273 15 482 18 35 18 .276 .343 .467 .810 32 Freddie Lindstrom 22.5 116 944 1924 1931 18-25 3991 3647 622 1186 186 58 76 511 236 185 9 74 10 .325 .368 .471 .838 33 Stuffy McInnis 22.4 124 892 1909 1916 18-25 3594 3242 412 1020 128 46 13 488 186 155 24 109 43 .315 .356 .395 .751 34 Ted Simmons 22.0 120 844 1968 1975 18-25 3537 3204 371 956 177 24 77 494 275 55 263 16 7 13 .298 .353 .441 .794 35 Alan Trammell 21.6 102 850 1977 1983 19-25 3324 2897 431 811 126 23 42 303 319 6 328 8 91 48 .280 .350 .383 .733 36 Carl Crawford 21.0 103 816 2002 2007 20-25 3578 3343 490 990 145 74 62 377 166 15 505 19 277 57 .296 .331 .439 .771 37 Miguel Cabrera 20.9 140 880 2003 2008 20-25 3756 3310 534 1022 219 12 175 650 378 76 718 28 18 11 .309 .381 .541 .921 38 Cecil Travis 20.2 105 814 1933 1939 19-25 3367 3055 440 982 161 43 16 404 237 172 24 18 21 .321 .375 .418 .793 39 Buddy Bell 20.0 103 845 1972 1977 20-25 3483 3156 391 859 128 19 58 324 258 25 289 16 23 45 .272 .328 .380 .708 40 Rusty Staub 19.8 125 991 1963 1969 19-25 3979 3455 386 958 182 17 86 449 433 86 372 30 11 10 .277 .360 .414 .774 41 Buddy Lewis 19.8 109 895 1935 1941 18-24 4104 3658 614 1112 178 65 53 449 385 223 11 69 46 .304 .372 .432 .804 42 Bobby Doerr 19.1 106 909 1937 1943 19-25 3841 3425 477 982 191 32 88 542 344 306 4 31 44 .287 .353 .438 .791 43 Elbie Fletcher 17.8 116 777 1934 1941 18-25 3200 2727 395 741 129 36 47 350 427 260 21 24 .272 .374 .397 .772 44 Ruben Sierra 17.2 118 909 1986 1991 20-25 3856 3543 505 993 196 37 139 586 253 39 529 7 74 29 .280 .325 .474 .799 45 Justin Upton 16.7 119 880 2007 2013 19-25 3673 3221 532 886 174 30 135 433 381 36 855 40 88 35 .275 .356 .473 .830 46 Lloyd Moseby 16.7 103 822 1980 1985 20-25 3337 2969 424 779 149 41 81 384 287 27 575 30 129 53 .262 .331 .422 .753 47 Brooks Robinson 15.2 100 781 1955 1962 18-25 3117 2856 318 798 135 31 54 307 180 11 289 13 10 10 .279 .322 .405 .727 48 Vic Saier 14.9 123 801 1911 1916 20-25 3219 2761 431 733 139 58 53 377 358 355 20 116 46 .265 .354 .415 .769 49 Dick Hoblitzell 13.0 113 919 1908 1914 19-25 3834 3401 427 970 142 68 24 442 268 242 25 139 24 .285 .342 .388 .730 50 Tony Conigliaro 12.8 124 781 1964 1970 19-25 3229 2898 433 783 120 23 160 492 256 27 568 32 16 20 .270 .333 .493 .826 51 Boog Powell 12.5 129 811 1961 1967 19-25 3106 2706 370 706 104 7 143 471 356 46 571 11 4 11 .261 .347 .463 .810 52 Eddie Yost 10.6 106 865 1944 1952 17-25 3892 3185 503 821 163 30 46 282 620 347 34 28 25 .258 .384 .371 .755 53 Fred Merkle 10.3 109 853 1907 1914 18-25 3255 2925 407 796 148 51 38 406 243 391 22 175 18 .272 .333 .397 .729 54 Claudell Washington 9.3 105 824 1974 1980 19-25 3243 3023 396 845 154 36 57 370 166 34 570 18 149 75 .280 .318 .411 .729 55 Phil Cavarretta 6.5 101 805 1934 1942 17-25 3064 2741 360 751 135 38 35 344 263 253 17 38 .274 .341 .389 .731

I'll have to see what these guys averaged in WAR pre-age 26, vs age 26-32 or so. Not sure how to get it, without doing it manually.

Yeah, I have zero problem with the Phillies opening up their checkbook for Heyward, especially if Hamels is off the books and with Lee only costing $12.5M for his buyout.

It'd be kinda like Werth and the Nats, except much younger and less production. They have money. This isn't Josh Hamilton (was always on record as hating that idea). This is a soon-to-be 26 year old who may not give you elite production, but is still tied for 7th in the majors in fWAR since 2010. Here are the guys in front of him:

Trout 35.8
McCutchen 34.4
Bautista 30.4
Zobrist 27.8
Stanton 24.9
Alex Gordon 24.6
Holliday 24.2
Heyward 24.2

He's in front of Braun, Adam Jones, Ellsbury, Gardner, Carlos Gomez, and Justin Upton.

(And how crazy is it that Trout is generally 100-200 games behind all of those guys?)

He'd immediately be the Phillies best hitter and would fill a position of desperate need: a corner OF who has anything resembling power and can field a fly ball without falling down. It makes way too much sense. At the same time, I find it highly unlikely that the either the Phillies would make a run at him or that he'd be interested in Philly. But you never know. Like I said, you'd never have thought that Werth would've signed with the Nats until it happened.

by **smitty** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 17:15:03

He hasn't been improving though. In fact, he's dropping some. Getting hit in the face may have had some effect on him. It looks like he's walking less and striking out more.

A lot of his value is tied to the defense. I wonder how the big league computers see him in that regard.

He looks like an above average player. Those guys aren't easy to find. But I'm concerned about his future. At least I would be concerned if he was a Phillie. If he stays with St. Louie, the hell with him.

by **Soren** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 17:23:56

There would also be the sweet, sweet Schadenfreude if a flamed out Barves prospect had an incredible run with the Phillies.

by gr » Mon Jul 27, 2015 17:35:22

Remember Andruw Jones?

Seems pretty rare that stars flame out wo injury in their mid 20s.

He'd be a good signing for a megadeal, overall, but the fact is, other places would want him and we're not a destination right now.

by **smitty** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 17:49:19

It's not common but it happens. Melvin Upton peaked at 22 and was stinky at age 28.

by **Wheels Tupay** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 18:11:53

Soren wrote:There would also be the sweet, sweet Schadenfreude if a flamed out Barves prospect had an incredible run with the Phillies.

Frenchy says hi

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 18:53:07

Fwiw, I've been pretty outspoken on being willing to hold out on a Hamels deal until the next GM comes aboard, but I'd seriously consider letting Papelbon go for nothing if someone claims him on waivers. Or preferably, working out a deal with whomever claims him to eat some salary and steal a prospect.

by gr » Mon Jul 27, 2015 18:58:45

Pretty sure we all would

by **Bucky** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 20:05:49

if you're dumping cole with 4 years left, why would you go sign heyward for big bucks this offseason??

by **The Dude** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 20:51:20

Bc he could still be in his prime when they're good again

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 21:04:05

Bucky wrote:if you're dumping cole with 4 years left, why would you go sign heyward for big bucks this offseason??

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 21:04:28

Bucky wrote:if you're dumping cole with 4 years left, why would you go sign heyward for big bucks this offseason??

You'd keep him in that scenario guy

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 22:04:48

RyHo frustrates us all at times, but I think it is cool that he is now in the top 100 all-time in HRs, and he did it firmly outside the steroid era and without their help (I'm looking at you, Rafael Palmeiro). If he gets to 30 this year he'll be 80th all time, ahead of Joe DiMaggio but behind Lance Berkman.

Top 100 might not seem like much, but on the other hand, think of all the damn people who have played baseball and all of sudden it's fucking impressive.

Side note: Lance Berkman and his career 144 OPS+ in 15 seasons has a better HOF case to be made for him than one might think, but I don't think he'll ever be seriously considered.

by **Woody** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 22:31:27

Ryan Howard definitely top 1% of all-time mammals

by **BigEd76** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 23:32:45

Cole has to share NL Player of the Week with CarGo

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:02:32

Bucky wrote:if you're dumping cole with 4 years left, why would you go sign heyward for big bucks this offseason??

Because it's damn near impossible to find 26-year-old above average OF who plays elite defense on the open market. You take the chance to sign him, then build around him. And between the Hamels trade, bad contracts coming off the books (Lee, Howard, Chooch), and the development of prospects, they'll have the financial flexibility to do that moving forward (more in 2017 but even somewhat in 2016).

And I think more teams will be willing to take on Papelbon on a rental next season. That damn vesting option. Fucking Amaro.

by **lowcountry** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:26:17

Rosenthal. Not some sick, fake person. Also not Incarcerated Bob.

Sources: #Nationals making progress on acquiring Papelbon from #Phillies. Papelbon has said he will only approve deal if he can close.

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