half of the top 10 mlb 1b in fwar are guys who were at 3b or corner of or c at 23 and had moved to 1b by age 27-28. miggy and pujols are the most dramatic examples.
same holds for a bunch of guys on the top-20 all-time list, including pujols (again) murray, mcgwire, raffy, thome, mccovey, and killebrew (sorta... he had a strange career play 1b, 3b, and of for extended periods at just about any time in his career).

if the total available offensive firepower is the same, you put the worst of your corner if/of at 1b, even if he can handel a tougher position

phorever wrote:if the total available offensive firepower is the same, you put the worst of your corner if/of at 1b, even if he can handel a tougher position

That's the key. I'm tired of hearing about how, for example, Utley loses much of his value at 1B. That's true in a vacuum, but doesn't preclude it from being our best move. You're lucky to have even three or four good hitters nowadays

You may be tired of hearing it, Grote, but it's true. As a 2B Utley ranked 8th in 2014 in both wOBA and wRC+. As a 1B he would have ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in those categories. Because of his defense at 2B and the fact that 2B are generally less productive offensively than 1B, Utley is still in the top third of MLB 2B. As a 1B he'd be in the lower third and, consequently, considerably less valuable to the team. In fact, given the same number of PA, I'd be pretty sure Ruf would outproduce Utley at 1B in 2015.

JFLNYC wrote:You may be tired of hearing it, Grote, but it's true. As a 2B Utley ranked 8th in 2014 in both wOBA and wRC+. As a 1B he would have ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in those categories. Because of his defense at 2B and the fact that 2B are generally less productive offensively than 1B, Utley is still in the top third of MLB 2B. As a 1B he'd be in the lower third and, consequently, considerably less valuable to the team. In fact, given the same number of PA, I'd be pretty sure Ruf would outproduce Utley at 1B in 2015.

I said it's true. My point is that it doesn't necessarily preclude it from being our best option. It's about putting your best combination of eight players out there, not any one guy's WAR

Grotewold wrote:

phorever wrote:if the total available offensive firepower is the same, you put the worst of your corner if/of at 1b, even if he can handel a tougher position

That's the key. I'm tired of hearing about how, for example, Utley loses much of his value at 1B. That's true in a vacuum, but doesn't preclude it from being our best move. You're lucky to have even three or four good hitters nowadays

to me, this is a different problem, because it is much, much easier for the phils to put together 1b platoon with utley's firepower and the same defense he would provide at that spot (since a good deal of his range/positioning/throwing skills would be of less use there) than for them to find any combination of available middle infielders that can match the expected offensive and defensive contributions of utley before 2017 or 2018 [barring a trade of hamels... but i'm against that because i think he will have enough value at the end of his contract that trading him will hurt as much as it helps the 2017-18 teams]. jp may be able to take over one spot as soon as 2017, but that's about it, and he should be taking over for rollins, not utley. we would need a jp-type coming off a successful 2014 in aa or aaa to make a utley-to-first move anything but a step backwards. i'm one of those convinced that asche can't handle the switch to 3b. quinn in the infield doesn't seem to have worked, and he is by far our best hope for a real solution in center. galvis could break out (recovery from defense-limiting injuries plus some evidence he has discovered power-adding vitamins) but hasn't yet and would be a huge dropoff unless that happens. cesar hernandez looks like a bust, and valentin and pullin are the next in line with any decent potential, and they are years away.

the only way i see to get value out of a move of utley to 1b is somehow lucking into a trade partner for papelbon+brown that deals us a good young 2b. is there any gillick magic left for the phils? or wade's abreu-trade magic? or even raj lee-trade #1 magic? somehow, i doubt it.

my 2015 plan right now is to trade pap+brown for a rh platoon-only outfielder who can play a decent cf and another valentin/pullin type, and then maybe sign tomas to move sizemore to the bench or enable a trade of byrd for a pitching prospect. then just use galvis to (finally) keep rollins and utley rested, let franco learn on the job as our regular 3b (given occasional rest by asche), platoon ruf with howard/asche at 1b, trade pap+brown for a rh platoon-only outfielder who can play a decent cf and another valentin/pullin type, and then maybe sign tomas to move sizemore to the bench. either way, when/if dugan and/or altherr is/are ready, sizemore or byrd (or revere?) goes for a pitching prospect or two.

You'd have to assume that your replacement 2B would be defensively equal (or better) to Chase though.

phorever wrote:the only way i see to get value out of a move of utley to 1b is somehow lucking into a trade partner for papelbon+brown that deals us a good young 2b.

Or preferring Hernandez to Ruf moving forward, and accounting for Utley's knees. But I was talking in theoretical terms, not necessarily advocating Utley to 1B

JFLNYC wrote:You may be tired of hearing it, Grote, but it's true. As a 2B Utley ranked 8th in 2014 in both wOBA and wRC+. As a 1B he would have ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, in those categories. Because of his defense at 2B and the fact that 2B are generally less productive offensively than 1B, Utley is still in the top third of MLB 2B. As a 1B he'd be in the lower third and, consequently, considerably less valuable to the team. In fact, given the same number of PA, I'd be pretty sure Ruf would outproduce Utley at 1B in 2015.

All true, but you also have to consider if your replacement 2B would outperform your replacement 1B and also keep in mind how many more games Utley might play at 1B over 2B. There are a lot of variables, even in a vacuum.

The entire coaching staff has agreed to return. fkk

BigEd76 wrote:The entire coaching staff has agreed to return. fkk

Can't argue with success.

Shows a lack of integrity in my opinion.

BigEd76 wrote:The entire coaching staff has agreed to return. fkk

What needs to change? GM's doing a great job. Manager's fantastic. We're coaching the hell out of these kids.

Or let the next GM pick his people

Grotewold wrote:Or let the next GM pick his people

I'll celebrate that moment as much or more than anyone. Forgive me if I don't assume that every shitty decision we make is a prelude to a good one.

Shore wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Or let the next GM pick his people

I'll celebrate that moment as much or more than anyone. Forgive me if I don't assume that every shitty decision we make is a prelude to a good one.

I wasn't saying you should, really. I just think him being gone by next year is more likely than him being renewed, and that coaching changes would make more sense then

It's just crazy. Everyone seems to think/know/agree that ownership/Gillick(?) realizes that we need to clean house entirely from the front office on down, yet it feels like we're going to stretch it all out over a long, painful 2-3 year process

Woody wrote:It's just crazy. Everyone seems to think/know/agree that ownership/Gillick(?) realizes that we need to clean house entirely from the front office on down, yet it feels like we're going to stretch it all out over a long, painful 2-3 year process

Having a GM candidate who won't be available until next year would explain it. The scouting hires are pretty big, and Amaro's public comments of late sound like those of a dead man walking to me

That someone as dialed-in as Steaks would say we could make a push for Maddon -- even if a huge longshot -- speaks to big changes coming imo

I think they try and get Beane

Grotewold wrote:Having a GM candidate who won't be available until next year would explain it. The scouting hires are pretty big, and Amaro's public comments of late sound like those of a dead man walking to me

That someone as dialed-in as Steaks would say we could make a push for Maddon -- even if a huge longshot -- speaks to big changes coming imo

grote, i love ya man, and, because i do, it is my duty as a friend and fellow stubborn optimist (sometimes) to warn you that you are moving into "connect the dots" territory. that's not somewhere you want to be. reminding us of alternative explanations is one thing. turning everything into evidence of one particular alternative explanation is another, and can be just as bad as is the phils-management-is-stupid confirmation bias filter that you and i try to oppose.

The Dude wrote:I think they try and get Beane

could you imagine Beane with a 200 million dollar payroll?

Swoon