Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

by **Trent Steele** » Sun Aug 31, 2014 21:37:54

in 2013, he 128 Ks and 4 BBs

i mean, it's mayberry, so you cant expect anything back, but this guy has no chance

by **BigEd76** » Sun Aug 31, 2014 21:52:23

karabellespn
Phillies just traded for a minor league 3B with, over past 2 seasons, 17 walks, 239 K. And career .282 OBP. Of course it's the Phillies.

by **phorever** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 09:38:05

random thought, presented without comment:
after their offensive outbursts last night, howard and brown are at -0.9 and -1.7 bwar through 556 and 442 pa's.
ruf and sizemore are at 0.6 and 0.7 through 65 and 130 pa's. if i first lower those latter two production rates by a bit more than half each (around 0.25 and 0.3) and then scale up to the pa's of howard and brown, i get 2.4 and 1.4 bwar.
that is, in the fictional world where the phillies had been able and willing to play those two replacements instead of the regulars at their positions all season and the replacements had contributed value at a bit less than half the rate they actually have, those positions would have been worth +3.8 bwar, instead of the actual -2.6, a gain of more than 6 wins, implying that the phillies would have a .500 record instead of being 12 games under.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 09:39:14

i'd rather be 12 games under.

by **Grotewold** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 09:53:18

phorever wrote:random thought, presented without comment:
after their offensive outbursts last night, howard and brown are at -0.9 and -1.7 bwar through 556 and 442 pa's.
ruf and sizemore are at 0.6 and 0.7 through 65 and 130 pa's. if i first lower those latter two production rates by a bit more than half each (around 0.25 and 0.3) and then scale up to the pa's of howard and brown, i get 2.4 and 1.4 bwar.
that is, in the fictional world where the phillies had been able and willing to play those two replacements instead of the regulars at their positions all season and the replacements had contributed value at a bit less than half the rate they actually have, those positions would have been worth +3.8 bwar, instead of the actual -2.6, a gain of more than 6 wins, implying that the phillies would have a .500 record instead of being 12 games under.

It makes sense because you can't point at many other positions as the problem. It looks like Asche is a .690 OPS type guy with questionable defense, but fortunately we have Franco looming. I'd seek much more of an impact bat than Sizemore

Need way more from the 2-3-4 starting rotation spots next year obvs

by **phorever** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:42:26

Grotewold wrote:
phorever wrote:It makes sense because you can't point at many other positions as the problem. It looks like Asche is a .690 OPS type guy with questionable defense, but fortunately we have Franco looming. I'd seek much more of an impact bat than Sizemore

nah... those are overpriced on the fa market (remember rauuuul), unless maybe your team already is a likely playoff contender.
better just to get an upgrade of brown as a lefty platoon for byrd, and a good-fielding righty to be defensive caddy and platoon partner for revere till quinn arrives. add that to having ruf at 1b and franco at 3b with asche as quasi-platoon for each and i think we have a real +6 win offensive improvement even with the actuarily inevitable average -0.5 win aging decline for the remaining veterans in the starting lineup. even if lee doesn't come back at all, that's enough for a less embarrasing season that keeps even more fans from deserting the ship while waiting for quinn/nola/crawford and the rest to develop.

by **Bucky** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:49:43

Marlon Byrd is .768 vs. RHP....is that poor enough to justify a platoon???

by **ReadingPhilly** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 17:34:43

cesar, rupp, garcia, mag, franco and gwynn jr are the callups.

by **CFP** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 17:40:31

Adams is back too

by **BigEd76** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 17:51:17

No Aumont.....a severe blow to our tanking hopes

by **bleh** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 17:58:01

I know we all hate him and stuff but the Mayberry trade seems bad. I'm willing to accept they can't get better than what they got for him, but then just keep him. He's not good but he's at least capable, and he's been great against lefties and he's controllable for 2 more years. I guess it depends on who they sign to replace him with though.

by **bleh** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 17:58:33

and where is Jake Fox???????!!!!!

by **ReadingPhilly** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 18:28:38

bleh wrote:I know we all hate him and stuff but the Mayberry trade seems bad. I'm willing to accept they can't get better than what they got for him, but then just keep him. He's not good but he's at least capable, and he's been great against lefties and he's controllable for 2 more years. I guess it depends on who they sign to replace him with though.

just shows they have no plans to commit to a platoon at any spot.

by **Ace Rothstein** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 18:28:44

I know I bitch about this every year but the September roster expansion is pretty stupid

by **Grotewold** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 18:46:51

ReadingPhilly wrote:
bleh wrote:I know we all hate him and stuff but the Mayberry trade seems bad. I'm willing to accept they can't get better than what they got for him, but then just keep him. He's not good but he's at least capable, and he's been great against lefties and he's controllable for 2 more years. I guess it depends on who they sign to replace him with though.

just shows they have no plans to commit to a platoon at any spot.

You might be right, but I hope they'll consider them at 3B and 1B (Ruf)

It's probably irrational, but I bid good riddance to Mayberry. Way too many herp derps on the bases and in the field. Not as many as Brown, mind, but Dom still has upside

by **phatj** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 22:29:47

Ace Rothstein wrote:I know I bitch about this every year but the September roster expansion is pretty stupid

I guess I've missed you bitching about this previously. Why?

by **Wheels Tupay** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 22:48:38

phatj wrote:
Ace Rothstein wrote:I know I bitch about this every year but the September roster expansion is pretty stupid

I guess I've missed you bitching about this previously. Why?

I somewhat like the idea but there needs to be a limit, say 5 players or so. It does get old when there is a pitching change every batter and a pitch runner every time a slow player gets on.

But it also gives fans something to look forward to when their team sucks like the Phils do.

by **Ace Rothstein** » Mon Sep 01, 2014 22:49:05

phatj wrote:
Ace Rothstein wrote:I know I bitch about this every year but the September roster expansion is pretty stupid

I guess I've missed you bitching about this previously. Why?

You make a huge change to the game at the most important time of the season

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Sep 02, 2014 00:07:43

It feels like the Phillies win less than 46% of the time

by **JFLNYC** » Tue Sep 02, 2014 02:50:46

bleh wrote:I know we all hate him and stuff but the Mayberry trade seems bad. I'm willing to accept they can't get better than what they got for him, but then just keep him. He's not good but he's at least capable, and he's been great against lefties and he's controllable for 2 more years. I guess it depends on who they sign to replace him with though.

Agreed.

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