jerseyhoya wrote:UKIP doing unexpectedly well in the local council elections. European parliament results come in Sunday, and on the back of this I imagine they'll be doing very well there too. Right wing Euroskeptic parties rising across Europe. UKIP seems a lot less offensive than the National Front in France and Geert Wilders party in the Netherlands, but that might be an incorrect assessment from afar. All three might actually win the most votes in their countries this weekend.
The UKIP thing is interesting for a lot of reasons. They have benefitted from relentless media coverage (scottish Greens media guy recently said that the BBC wouldn't consider including Greens in any debate until they had an MP. They have one now. UKIP still have none. Still got the coverage and inclusion in debates) and, surprise surpise, they have built on that coverage to good effect. They're getting away with an anti-EU, anti-immigration line and nothing else. Labour were all dead chuffed they were the tories problem, because these areas were traditionally tory policies, and labour assumed they'd be splitting the tory vote until UKIP started making gains in councils which were usually labour strongholds.
They're unlikely to get many seats in the next parliamentary election. Lord Ashcroft (tory well-to-do) funded another poll over the weekend which indicated that at least 50% of those voting ukip would of return to tory for the election in 2015. But they've forced the tories to say there'll be an in-out referendum on europe if they get in. There are knock-on implications for the referendum in september - Scotland's views on immigrations aren't that out of step with the rest of the UK, but scottish folk want to be in europe, and BetterTogether (the unionists/anti-independence bunch) have backed off their line that scotland wouldn't be allowed into the EU. So voting no means that there's no guarantee that scotland will stay in europe. And as long as UKIP get to dictate immigration and the EU membership issue, even without having MPs, they have influence on policy decisions in London. Furthermore, it weakens the labour part of the better together alliance - they say vote no, and labour will win, and scotland won't have to worry about the tories. But the ashcroft poll suggests the tories still might squeak it. As a conservatie minister is noting on the telly just now - only the conservatives can guarantee an in/out vote - ukip won't get the mp's to pull it off.
There's an interesting take by a smart labour blogger here: http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot. ... sults.html. I don't think he's right about everything, but he makes some interesting points.
Me, I'm hoping the Don't knows (anywhere between 15 and 20 odd percent - the balance of power in the referendum which is likely to have at least a 75% turnout) get a fright from the UKIP stuff and move towards yes to scottish independence. We'll need every edge we can get. Can't lie though - it's very interesting times in politics in the UK. So many different factors in play.
