A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gold!

Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:28:51

TomatoPie wrote: It is actuarial disaster, doesn't require a crystal ball to see where it's going.


Actuaries are not seers. They anticipate the future by looking with little exception at the past. Their health care predictions are predictably crap because they routinely either fail entirely to anticipate or radically inaccurately forecast the impact of practically every kind of health treatment innovation. Their methods work best when pretty much everything proceeds as it has proceeded in the past, with mild & predictable variations from "normal" - so on forecasting things like retirement payouts from invested assets, they can do a pretty decent job.

On health care, not so much. Their forecasts of Medicare expenditures are wildly inaccurate, and wildly variable, as I'm sure you're aware because you read that WSJ article I posted a link to yesterday.

And yet they wield some pretty effective tools. It's hard to do a better job than the crappy job that most of them do.

So, with respect to health care cost forecasting, fuck your actuarial disaster.
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby pacino » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:34:59

like this?
Image
we all cite the CBO when it suits us (me included), but they're much better at looking back than looking ahead
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Bucky » Wed Jul 16, 2014 13:09:11

THAT'S WHY RUBE DOESN'T DO FIVE YEAR PLANS

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Bucky » Wed Jul 16, 2014 14:05:52

Conservatives have an inherent biological negativity bias

No, this is not the onion. It's a real scientific study. I'd actually been postulating on common personality differences between liberals and conservatives and have been doing some googling to see if anyone else shares my theories. The most common theory is that there is a higher average intelligence amongst liberals- which is, as you could imagine, quite a controversial and argued topic.

But this one seems (at least at its genesis) to be a little more accepted. Interesting, and it also makes perfect sense to me.

One finding? That conservatives respond much more rapidly to threatening and aversive stimuli (for instance, images of "a very large spider on the face of a frightened person, a dazed individual with a bloody face, and an open wound with maggots in it," as one of their papers put it).

In other words, the conservative ideology, and especially one of its major facets—centered on a strong military, tough law enforcement, resistance to immigration, widespread availability of guns—would seem well tailored for an underlying, threat-oriented biology.

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jul 16, 2014 14:27:44

If that was a hard and fast rule, Soren would be the most right wing person on the board.

It makes sense on social and national security issues. I have the paper open and will give it a look, but it would seem the aligned response on most economic issues would be redistributionist/strengthening the social safety net, not adherence to the market.

Hibbing and his co-authors do some interesting work. I saw them present a paper at MPSA this year about how they were able to increase voter turnout in people who are prone to stress (high baseline levels of cortisol) with messaging that threatened to tell people if they didn't vote.

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Werthless » Wed Jul 16, 2014 14:36:52

Monkeyboy wrote:It's a trial run for the huge one they'll try to bill taxpayers to build around the US a decade from now.

Image

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Werthless » Wed Jul 16, 2014 14:40:30

jerseyhoya wrote:If that was a hard and fast rule, Soren would be the most right wing person on the board.

It makes sense on social and national security issues. I have the paper open and will give it a look, but it would seem the aligned response on most economic issues would be redistributionist/strengthening the social safety net, not adherence to the market.

Hibbing and his co-authors do some interesting work. I saw them present a paper at MPSA this year about how they were able to increase voter turnout in people who are prone to stress (high baseline levels of cortisol) with messaging that threatened to tell people if they didn't vote.

Yes, I googled MPSA so I could evaluate how I should judge this comment. :)

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Bucky » Wed Jul 16, 2014 15:01:07

jerseyhoya wrote:I but it would seem the aligned response on most economic issues would be redistributionist/strengthening the social safety net, not adherence to the market.


it's because the same negativity bias also nourishes a strong proclivation toward authoritative leaders

these leaders, being wealthy, thus exert their influence toward other policies that favor themselves, such as tax rates and other seemingly inverse beliefs like ridiculous rejection of things that would harm their financial standing, such as global warming

also, fox news

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby pacino » Wed Jul 16, 2014 15:39:51

Werthless wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:If that was a hard and fast rule, Soren would be the most right wing person on the board.

It makes sense on social and national security issues. I have the paper open and will give it a look, but it would seem the aligned response on most economic issues would be redistributionist/strengthening the social safety net, not adherence to the market.

Hibbing and his co-authors do some interesting work. I saw them present a paper at MPSA this year about how they were able to increase voter turnout in people who are prone to stress (high baseline levels of cortisol) with messaging that threatened to tell people if they didn't vote.

Yes, I googled MPSA so I could evaluate how I should judge this comment. :)

gotta wonder how the after party is
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Wed Jul 16, 2014 16:32:31

Bucky wrote:. I'd actually been postulating on common personality differences between liberals and conservatives and have been doing some googling to see if anyone else shares my theories. The most common theory is that there is a higher average intelligence amongst liberals- which is, as you could imagine, quite a controversial and argued topic.


Adorno et al's mid-20th-century work on "authoritarian personality" traits (conservatism in different clothes, mostly knee-high leather boots and Sam Browne belts) was eventually pretty universally rained on. People and their world-modeling predilections are a funny game.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jul 16, 2014 17:33:36

Bucky wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:I but it would seem the aligned response on most economic issues would be redistributionist/strengthening the social safety net, not adherence to the market.

it's because the same negativity bias also nourishes a strong proclivation toward authoritative leaders

these leaders, being wealthy, thus exert their influence toward other policies that favor themselves, such as tax rates and other seemingly inverse beliefs like ridiculous rejection of things that would harm their financial standing, such as global warming

also, fox news

I can't tell how serious this response is, but I think the idea they're going for here are these are innate, instinctual reactions to stimuli that get translated into a broader worldview that leads to one being likelier to favor certain kinds of policy prescriptions. I think it's properly viewed as an individual level thing initially, not something having to do with wealthy people and Fox News. How this translates into the real world of politics matters, but that's skipping a step. You've got this negativity bias leading to people wanting the state to do more to protect them from criminals/terrorists/foreigners and the state to do more to uphold various moral/religious structures. I would think the state to do more to protect people from economic distress/uncertainty is the natural third leg of the stool to complete the set. The terminology of liberalism and conservatism might do more harm than good here because modern conservatives generally advocate for classically liberal economic policies.

In practice the Republican Party/conservatives trying to build a coalition that attracts these voters could emphasize tangential economic issues like immigration (they took our jerbs!). Or they can reframe the thing that you need to be protected from economically is the state. I don't think either is as natural or intuitive, though they have some resonance. The Democratic Party/liberals have as straightforward sell on the economic issues (they are shipping your jobs overseas/coming after your Social Security/favoring Wall Street and killing Main Street, we will protect you), and can reframe on national security issues that avoiding the threatening stimuli all together by withdrawing from the areas of threat is the most appealing course. Messaging on the social issues is harder, which might explain the socially conservative working class drift to the GOP if that segment of voters are psychologically inclined in such a way, but millions still vote the other way.

There is a lot of disagreement in the poli sci literature on how ideological the mass public is (if at all) and the causal direction of ideologies being adopted/evolving (mass public directing elites or elites dictating to masses). And even though the parties have become more polarized and the public has become more ideologically polarized, I don't think the polarization has been with this as the fault line. Modern American conservatism and liberalism make enough sense as coherent ideologies, but they don't match up precisely with this negativity bias idea.

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Wed Jul 16, 2014 18:33:06

Werthless wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote: they were able to increase voter turnout in people who are prone to stress (high baseline levels of cortisol) with messaging that threatened to tell people if they didn't vote.

Yes, I googled MPSA so I could evaluate how I should judge this comment. :)


I was wondering what it was that they threatened to tell people
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Jul 16, 2014 23:43:39

I mentioned a while back that I graduated high school with a guy that is now running for Congress in Washington. He showed up on the national radar today...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/g ... nvironment

fwiw, he's mormon. I'm not sure if that impacts his view on this particular issue, but it seems like it could be relevant. I really don't know how mormons view the environment as a whole
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Werthless » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:41:19

Monkeyboy wrote:I mentioned a while back that I graduated high school with a guy that is now running for Congress in Washington. He showed up on the national radar today...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/g ... nvironment

fwiw, he's mormon. I'm not sure if that impacts his view on this particular issue, but it seems like it could be relevant. I really don't know how mormons view the environment as a whole


Funny, related Louis CK bits:



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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Thu Jul 17, 2014 15:55:38

Israel launches ground offensive in Gaza.
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Jul 17, 2014 16:01:20


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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Jul 18, 2014 01:29:01

Remember that time Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby slugsrbad » Fri Jul 18, 2014 07:24:11

Cool story?
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby pacino » Fri Jul 18, 2014 07:53:53

God you're fucking insufferable sometimes
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby slugsrbad » Fri Jul 18, 2014 08:40:06

pacino wrote:God you're fucking insufferable sometimes


I'm sorry :(
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