TomatoPie wrote: It is actuarial disaster, doesn't require a crystal ball to see where it's going.
Actuaries are not seers. They anticipate the future by looking with little exception at the past. Their health care predictions are predictably crap because they routinely either fail entirely to anticipate or radically inaccurately forecast the impact of practically every kind of health treatment innovation. Their methods work best when pretty much everything proceeds as it has proceeded in the past, with mild & predictable variations from "normal" - so on forecasting things like retirement payouts from invested assets, they can do a pretty decent job.
On health care, not so much. Their forecasts of Medicare expenditures are wildly inaccurate, and wildly variable, as I'm sure you're aware because you read that WSJ article I posted a link to yesterday.
And yet they wield some pretty effective tools. It's hard to do a better job than the crappy job that most of them do.
So, with respect to health care cost forecasting, fuck your actuarial disaster.