A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gold!

Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Jun 11, 2014 13:52:15

sydnor wrote:
pacino wrote:
Also, it suggests that maybe spending tons of effort trying to get campaign finance reform passed isn't really worth it. Cantor had a ton of money and still got creamed. Moreover, we've seen how the interweb can be leveraged to provide lots of money from small contributors.

the vast majority of the time, the candidate with more money ends up winning. it's still a huge issue.


agree with pacino, that is some serious "exception that proves the rule" ish going on.

The natural response by the establishment, btw, will be to just raise MORE money to make sure this doesn't happen.


You do hit a point of diminishing returns though--I think when Corzine ran in 2000, he probably would have done better had he dialed back his spending a bit.

I'm in favor of CFR, I think the idea that money=speech is nonsense, and I don't think corporations have the same rights as people. But two things to keep in mind--candidates will find ways around any law you pass. PACs, Soft money, were actually the consequences of earlier reforms. Second, it would take a huge amount of political capital to do anything effective, and I'm not sure that's the best place to use those resources.

One last point--yes, the candidate with the most money usually wins. But the causal arrow isn't exactly clearly in one direction. Cantor was able to raise money not because those groups loved him, but because he was a powerful member of Congress. Candidates who are perceived as having no chance can't raise money. Candidates who are sure things raise money easily.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby swishnicholson » Wed Jun 11, 2014 14:44:39

jerseyhoya wrote:The guy who won tonight is an Econ Ph.D


With a Masters in Divinity FWIW.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby TomatoPie » Wed Jun 11, 2014 14:51:30

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... ntors.html

Cantor was what passes for a small-government conservative. Which is to say that Cantor was in favor of shrinking the size and scope and government…except for the endless list of exceptions that allowed him to help grow federal spending by more than 50 percent in real terms, and regulatory spending by even more, during the Bush years.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Wed Jun 11, 2014 15:28:51

TenuredVulture wrote:One last point--yes, the candidate with the most money usually wins. But the causal arrow isn't exactly clearly in one direction. Cantor was able to raise money not because those groups loved him, but because he was a powerful member of Congress. Candidates who are perceived as having no chance can't raise money. Candidates who are sure things raise money easily.


agreed, & so in such cases we should probably call it something other than "raising money", because it makes it sound like the money i being raised to accomplish some uncertain outcome, rather than being, let's face it, a bribe, or an "influence deposit" or the like.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Wed Jun 11, 2014 15:44:55

jerseyhoya wrote:What Cantor's Loss and Graham's Win Mean - Trende with a good piece, going along with some of what TV is saying, though I don't think all of it.


I liked this:

Trende wrote:Anecdotes are not data, but after passage of the Affordable Care Act, I called his office with a question about what autism therapies for my son would now be covered (I lived in Cantor’s district for six years). I never heard back. This surprised me, as constituent questions rarely go unanswered.


"Uh, Mr. Trende, you'll probably want to confirm this, but in our copy of the statute, on page 7,209,201, it seems to say your son is to be ritually sacrificed on the National Mall, along with others who have his condition. Thanks for calling, and have a blessed day."
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Wed Jun 11, 2014 18:43:46

"Basically, despite a historic opportunity to shrink government, almost everything that the GOP establishment achieved during that time moved the needle leftward on domestic policy."

And that's why the Republicans are in deep trouble as a party.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby dajafi » Wed Jun 11, 2014 19:46:05

I thought that Trende piece was quite good, though I'm not sure I buy this:

Luzinski's Gut wrote:"Basically, despite a historic opportunity to shrink government, almost everything that the GOP establishment achieved during that time moved the needle leftward on domestic policy."

And that's why the Republicans are in deep trouble as a party.


I guess part of it is how one defines "leftward." What I think is tough to argue is that they made government bigger. Wars tend to do that, plus the expansion of the surveillance state. I wouldn't call any of that "leftward," though. On the domestic stuff, maybe he has a better case, though the problem there was the attempt at progressive ends through Republican-friendly means. Most of it was Rove trying to buy the loyalty of certain constituencies. Medicare Part D was a fine idea that tried to solve a real problem, but just stunningly irresponsible in terms of public finance. No provision to pay for it, explicit prohibition of using government's purchasing power to get a better deal, and the administration lied about the numbers to get his own party to vote for it in Congress. NCLB I suspect was the closest thing to a legitimate attempt at legislating, and was truly bipartisan: Ted Kennedy was behind it, as I believe was George Miller. But the implementation was half-assed and hacky.

TARP was crisis response which any actor in the middle 90 percent of the political spectrum would have supported. Whatever your politics, unless maybe you're Littlefinger, you don't really want to see economic collapse and mass suffering.

I'm not really sure what the positive Republican agenda is, or if one even exists. Douthat and Ponnuru and some of the other reform conservatives have a bunch of proposals on social assistance, school reform, tax reform, et al, some of which strike me as worth considering. But their underlying presumption is that the party exists to address real problems--which, in the nature of how societies work, mostly affect the less well off, which in the U.S. means a lot of non-white people. There are a lot more votes on the Republican side in demonizing those folks and fully blaming them for their own problems than in proposing solutions.

Basically the incentives of our politics are all kinds of fucked up.

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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Luzinski's Gut » Wed Jun 11, 2014 20:56:33

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/worl ... 116273.ece

Just when you thought Iraq couldn't get more fucked up, it does! Iranian Al Quds forces enter the fray.

Awesome mess.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Thu Jun 12, 2014 02:14:51

drsmooth wrote:I hope someone can explain Virginians' mania for immigration, illegals, amnesty for same

Mexico borders Virginia.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:05:03

Cantor dropping his Congressional seat is pretty amazingly stupid. It's like losing a cushy job because you accidentally dropboxed your porn stash to your contact list.

I mean, how do you explain that to your spouse: "Uhhh, honey, I forgot to campaign this year, so I got shitcanned"
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:20:09

The Dude wrote:then what's the point in celebrating



I'm a day late and I haven't read the rest of the thread, but I can see an upside here. Cantor was relatively respectable (for a dick), so low info voters just saw him as just another politician. I don't think things get better in congress until things move back to the left a bit as we've swung too far to the right. Having a lunatic speaker may help low info voters see what's going on more than a guy like Cantor would. Nothing was getting done anyway, so maybe a nutcase will help people turn on the current group of republicans. When I saw Cantor on tv talk shows, he always seemed reasonable and almost likeable.... and he made some good points. That won't probably happen with the new guy.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:24:15

jerseyhoya wrote:Dave Brat Talks Big Victory on Hannity - It's a Miracle

I personally wouldn't have suggested the god acting through humans bit, but I was pleasantly surprised by the interview. Guy sounds completely grounded and within the GOP mainstream and fucking loves free markets so much it might give docsmooth a stroke. Sounds like he'll be a good addition to Congress. Wish it didn't come with the disruption to GOP House leadership narrative, but I feel good for the guy, and feel a lot better about the election outcome than I did when I figured he was some bomb throwing populist know nothing sort.



so he goes from crazy person to great guy based on one tv interview.

Do you have problems not rushing out to buy stuff you see in commercials?
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Roger Dorn » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:40:53

http://reason.com/blog/2014/06/11/woman-dies-in-jail-because-she-failed-to

Glad to see debtors prison for the poor is alive and well in PA.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby pacino » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:58:12

hey, that's here!

it's pretty big news
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby pacino » Thu Jun 12, 2014 07:58:48

Luzinski's Gut wrote:http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/iraq/article4116273.ece

Just when you thought Iraq couldn't get more #$!&@ up, it does! Iranian Al Quds forces enter the fray.

Awesome mess.

who knew sectarian violence would start popping off?!
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby Roger Dorn » Thu Jun 12, 2014 08:12:27

pacino wrote:hey, that's here!

it's pretty big news


It's pretty fucked up, had no idea there was a legal basis for it.
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Thu Jun 12, 2014 08:30:40

Our Canadian politics correspondent has probably already noted this development, but it's news to me:

Rob Ford: the Musical now casting
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby drsmooth » Thu Jun 12, 2014 08:40:51

41 doing another birthday skydive today

90 yrs old

the older & crazier he gets, the more likeable he is
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby slugsrbad » Thu Jun 12, 2014 09:10:59

Serious question guys, is Brat worst?
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Re: A New Politics Thread? That's Gold Gerry(mandering); Gol

Postby thephan » Thu Jun 12, 2014 09:26:01

Depends on your beliefs. For VA Cantor's absence has a political tax. He was a power player with senior positions on important committees. Brat or his competitor, will be a freshman congressman with no suction. So that is a bad chess move.

Understand these this: 1) Cantor never, ever did anything positive, or rally nothing at all, for my part of VA. He was pretty much a black hole to NVA, except when pointing a finger at us as what is wrong with the state. Certainly be did not help the economic fall out of our prime employer shutting down and taking private employers to the mat with it. 2) Many of his positions and tactics are not appreciated by my political system believes, so I am no fan.

Now Brat, and people act like Brat has already won (he is to his constituents what a democratic mayoral candidate is to DC - so maybe that is fair), seems to take more extreme positions as his agenda. My take is that he is not talking to the base, but talking to the fringe. He has said that he is essentially unwilling to consider any position other then his agenda (aka Tea Party like), which means that he is for gridlock and opposed to working across the isle. For Cantor's publicly trotted out difficulties in doing this, he did demonstrate a willingness to work together for some thing, Brat seems that he is just for the polar right.

Personally, I do not see any positives in electing people who are committed to a cause without concern with good governance. So, to me, Brat is not a good candidate.
yawn

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