sydnor wrote:I know right, night?

If smitty assured me that he would have a .380 OBP, I'd sign up for that in a minute. For .360, I'd take it.

But the guy's best is .340. not good enough.

I know, right? 25 year old guys pretty much never improve.

.340 is much better in a league with a .315 average OBP. He's 26 next year. There's a fair chance he hasn't peaked. Depending on his foot/ankle obviously.

Monkeyboy wrote:My concern is they see him as a starter with good enough offense to play a corner OF spot, which in my opinion would negate anything gained by getting a top CFer.

We'd have two good outfielders instead of one.

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:A young, cheap corner outfielder who runs fast and could very well be a very fine defensive player. Who gets on base and adds value with base running.

Can't see any value in that.

The big key with Revere is the lingering effect of his injury. If he can't run fast, he's about worthless.

Clearly, he has zero power. That isn't good. But teams that focus on a guy's weakness and don't understand his strengths are bad teams.

The problem, of course, is that I saw very little of this elite defense and baserunning he's supposed to possess. Don't get me wrong, I would rather try to score him from 2B on a single than Ruf, but if that's the extent of his advantage, I'd rather go with Ruf or another option. And I don't buy his high OBP since it lasted about a month or so and was predicated on hitting .344 BABIP (and that includes his bad start) in a park that suppresses singles and doubles. It's also harder to score from 1B and that's almost always where he starts.

I do, however, think he has some value as a late game defender or baserunner. He could take over for Ruf or someone else when we have a lead or need a SB. So if they put him in that role, I'm fine with it. He's a better 5th OFer than Nix and some of the other clowns Ruben has put in that role. My concern is they see him as a starter with good enough offense to play a corner OF spot, which in my opinion would negate anything gained by getting a top CFer.

Why do you guys keep bringing up elite baserunning and defense? Who is saying that? Is he a better defender than say, Ibanez or Burrell? Most likely. By how much? By a lot. Could it be much more. Quite possible.

He has value. As a full time corner OFer? Some but not a LOT. As a 4th OFer type who gets quite a bit of playing time. I can see that.

I'm not sure what they see him as. It mostly depends on other moves they make. If he is completely healed, him as a starting Cfer would be fine if we get some help elsewhere. If we get a stud CFer and he becomes a full time LFer with Dom in right! that's not too bad. Not the best but not too bad. He MUST be a very good defender (and his arm really sucks so he has to make up for that as well). And he must get on base. And he must run the bases well. He showed some signs of being able to do that. We'll see.

How good a base runner is he? He is fast. That helps quite a bit. I don't think he played long enough last season to make a fair judgement.

In fact, I would say that for everything regarding him. He was looking pretty good when he went down with the foot. But last year was an incomplete. No one can say a whole lot with a ton of conviction regarding his ability although many do try.

I CAN say with conviction that his power is nonexistent and his arm is real bad. That a not a good start. But I believe he has some positives that might make him pretty valuable. That fact that last season ended so quickly and badly for a speed guy makes a good evaluation more guess work than anything else. But I am willing to try.

His OBP ranked 11th last year among MLB CF with 325+ PA. His year followed his career norm: Miserable April, followed by marked improvement in the middle of the year. However, for his career he's also tailed off in August and September.

I haven't done any research about how many hitters show a marked improvement in OBP as their careers progress, but I'd imagine it's a pretty small percentage. When you combine that with his mediocre career OBP (remember, league average OBP includes pitcher hitting), his disappointing defense and his injury, I would suggest that, if the goal is to add 15+ wins for 2014, at the moment Revere looks more like part of the problem than part of the solution. In fact, if we could be sure Hernandez will develop into a good defensive CF, I'd take him over Revere in a heartbeat.

the fact that he has absolutely zero power is a problem. hate having someone like that on the team.

smitty wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:A young, cheap corner outfielder who runs fast and could very well be a very fine defensive player. Who gets on base and adds value with base running.

Can't see any value in that.

The big key with Revere is the lingering effect of his injury. If he can't run fast, he's about worthless.

Clearly, he has zero power. That isn't good. But teams that focus on a guy's weakness and don't understand his strengths are bad teams.

The problem, of course, is that I saw very little of this elite defense and baserunning he's supposed to possess. Don't get me wrong, I would rather try to score him from 2B on a single than Ruf, but if that's the extent of his advantage, I'd rather go with Ruf or another option. And I don't buy his high OBP since it lasted about a month or so and was predicated on hitting .344 BABIP (and that includes his bad start) in a park that suppresses singles and doubles. It's also harder to score from 1B and that's almost always where he starts.

I do, however, think he has some value as a late game defender or baserunner. He could take over for Ruf or someone else when we have a lead or need a SB. So if they put him in that role, I'm fine with it. He's a better 5th OFer than Nix and some of the other clowns Ruben has put in that role. My concern is they see him as a starter with good enough offense to play a corner OF spot, which in my opinion would negate anything gained by getting a top CFer.

Why do you guys keep bringing up elite baserunning and defense? Who is saying that? Is he a better defender than say, Ibanez or Burrell? Most likely. By how much? By a lot. Could it be much more. Quite possible.

He has value. As a full time corner OFer? Some but not a LOT. As a 4th OFer type who gets quite a bit of playing time. I can see that.

I'm not sure what they see him as. It mostly depends on other moves they make. If he is completely healed, him as a starting Cfer would be fine if we get some help elsewhere. If we get a stud CFer and he becomes a full time LFer with Dom in right! that's not too bad. Not the best but not too bad. He MUST be a very good defender (and his arm really sucks so he has to make up for that as well). And he must get on base. And he must run the bases well. He showed some signs of being able to do that. We'll see.

How good a base runner is he? He is fast. That helps quite a bit. I don't think he played long enough last season to make a fair judgement.

In fact, I would say that for everything regarding him. He was looking pretty good when he went down with the foot. But last year was an incomplete. No one can say a whole lot with a ton of conviction regarding his ability although many do try.

I CAN say with conviction that his power is nonexistent and his arm is real bad. That a not a good start. But I believe he has some positives that might make him pretty valuable. That fact that last season ended so quickly and badly for a speed guy makes a good evaluation more guess work than anything else. But I am willing to try.

I don't think we're that far apart. You seem to see him having value as a 4th OFer, while I would go further and say he has value as a 5th OFer. I forgot to point out his God awful arm, which is also a problem.

He was sold to us as an elite defender and baserunner. That was supposed to be a lot of his value. I don't see many saying it these days, but I'm concerned the ptb still see him that way.

I don't even really like him in CF because I don't think it would take much to get something better, but he is still cheap, so I could live with it if they get a legit LFer. I just find it strange that you say he MUST be a very good defender and MUST get on base and MUST run the bases well in order to be any good and we still haven't seen him do at least two of those three things very well. He has gotten on base well over a short period, but his defense was average in CF, especially when you consider his noodle arm, and his base stealing was barely above the break even level. I feel like you're doing a lot of wishcasting here. Maybe he'll do the things you're hoping he'll do, but I think the odds are against him. His power is so bad that pretty much everything else has to go well for him to have value, and everything else rarely goes well.

My prediction for Revere, assuming he has a starting role, is that teams will learn to pitch to him because they'll have zero fear of making a mistake against him. The worst that happens is they groove one and he hits a line drive for a single. That's not going to scare anyone. I think the AL figured him out and the NL will too. I hate to be negative because he's likable and I want him to do the things you say he might do, but I think it's really, really unlikely.

My problem with saying things like "for his career" in regards to Revere is he's 25 years old. He was a September callup in 2010, then played 117 and 124 games, then 88 this season before getting hurt (on a completely fluky play so it's not like he's brittle)
I'm fine with people thinking he might stink but he's also going to be in his prime so we don't really know. It's not like we're talking about Michael Young here where the skills are only going to deteriorate.

Grotewold wrote:FWIW, there were only 12 qualifying left fielders this year with a higher OPS than Revere. (It's not 2003 anymore.) YMMV with the fielding and base-running data, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Revere would be near the top of that list.

National League teams got a composite .745 OPS out of LF last year. Revere's .691, a (brief) career high, would have put the Phillies ahead of 4 teams, behind 10.

NL teams got a composite .777 OPS out of RF. Revere's .691 would put the Phillies in 14th out of 15, ahead of the Pirates.

NL CFs went for a .722 OPS... Revere would have placed us 9th.

Not sure how Revere solves any problems this team has. The guy can't hit for ANY power. Guys like that don't have a rising OBP, because no one walks them. If he can't put one in the seats, he sees strikes. His OBP will be entirely BA driven.

during his major hot streak before he got hurt Revere had a 0.61 ISO. He's basically a little league hitter.

Love his Twitter though. He got game there.

philliesphhan wrote:My problem with saying things like "for his career" in regards to Revere is he's 25 years old. He was a September callup in 2010, then played 117 and 124 games, then 88 this season before getting hurt (on a completely fluky play so it's not like he's brittle)
I'm fine with people thinking he might stink but he's also going to be in his prime so we don't really know. It's not like we're talking about Michael Young here where the skills are only going to deteriorate.

I think people last year talked about the fact that maybe he would develop some more power. After watching him hit, there's just no way that happens. He's all arms. That mean he has to improve his batting average or walks to improve offensively. There's no way his walks will improve because he'll see more and more strikes as people come to the idea that he cannot really hurt them. That leaves improving his BA, which is also pretty unlikely for a guy with no power (OF cheats in) and an already high BABIP. He's at max value right now, imho. As soon as his price starts going up, which it will shortly, he'll have negative value for the team. He should be the first guy they replace on offense.

smitty wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Which sounds nice, but means nothing.

It means something. The guy had a godawful start. He's not a .380 OBP guy. But he showed on base talent.

You can't take more data out of a sample size and have it give you a better picture of a player outside of extenuating circumstances. (Like injury)

Shore wrote:

Grotewold wrote:FWIW, there were only 12 qualifying left fielders this year with a higher OPS than Revere. (It's not 2003 anymore.) YMMV with the fielding and base-running data, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Revere would be near the top of that list.

National League teams got a composite .745 OPS out of LF last year. Revere's .691, a (brief) career high, would have put the Phillies ahead of 4 teams, behind 10.

NL teams got a composite .777 OPS out of RF. Revere's .691 would put the Phillies in 14th out of 15, ahead of the Pirates.

NL CFs went for a .722 OPS... Revere would have placed us 9th.

Not sure how Revere solves any problems this team has. The guy can't hit for ANY power. Guys like that don't have a rising OBP, because no one walks them. If he can't put one in the seats, he sees strikes. His OBP will be entirely BA driven.

My whole thing -- and Amaro's comments as I understood them -- is predicated on adding a good center fielder. In which case you have Brown RF every day, and some combination of Revere and Ruf and maybe Asche at some point or whoever else in LF. I think that hodgepodge would be in the middle of the pack for LF with some above average range and base running, especially if, as many fear, Revere got most of the time.

If they can find decent value for Revere and/or make a second move for a corner guy, fine. No one here is saying he's an everyday lock, not even Amaro.

Monkeyboy wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:My problem with saying things like "for his career" in regards to Revere is he's 25 years old. He was a September callup in 2010, then played 117 and 124 games, then 88 this season before getting hurt (on a completely fluky play so it's not like he's brittle)
I'm fine with people thinking he might stink but he's also going to be in his prime so we don't really know. It's not like we're talking about Michael Young here where the skills are only going to deteriorate.

I think people last year talked about the fact that maybe he would develop some more power. After watching him hit, there's just no way that happens. He's all arms. That mean he has to improve his batting average or walks to improve offensively. There's no way his walks will improve because he'll see more and more strikes as people come to the idea that he cannot really hurt them. That leaves improving his BA, which is also pretty unlikely for a guy with no power (OF cheats in) and an already high BABIP. He's at max value right now, imho. As soon as his price starts going up, which it will shortly, he'll have negative value for the team. He should be the first guy they replace on offense.

If he's so worthless, why would his price be all that high? I don't think he's even arb eligible yet though. It also seems to me that a fast guy can have a higher BABIP. He can beat out a fair amount of ground balls in the infield for hits. I suppose the outfield can play in but outside of being lucky on some line drives, I'm not sure what advantage that really has as they're the toughest hit to defend.

I'm not the biggest fan of Revere, but I think it's silly that the criticism of him has now become "all his faults will undoubtedly continue and his good points are undoubtedly flukes"

philliesphhan wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:My problem with saying things like "for his career" in regards to Revere is he's 25 years old. He was a September callup in 2010, then played 117 and 124 games, then 88 this season before getting hurt (on a completely fluky play so it's not like he's brittle)
I'm fine with people thinking he might stink but he's also going to be in his prime so we don't really know. It's not like we're talking about Michael Young here where the skills are only going to deteriorate.

I think people last year talked about the fact that maybe he would develop some more power. After watching him hit, there's just no way that happens. He's all arms. That mean he has to improve his batting average or walks to improve offensively. There's no way his walks will improve because he'll see more and more strikes as people come to the idea that he cannot really hurt them. That leaves improving his BA, which is also pretty unlikely for a guy with no power (OF cheats in) and an already high BABIP. He's at max value right now, imho. As soon as his price starts going up, which it will shortly, he'll have negative value for the team. He should be the first guy they replace on offense.

If he's so worthless, why would his price be all that high? I don't think he's even arb eligible yet though. It also seems to me that a fast guy can have a higher BABIP. He can beat out a fair amount of ground balls in the infield for hits. I suppose the outfield can play in but outside of being lucky on some line drives, I'm not sure what advantage that really has as they're the toughest hit to defend.

I'm not the biggest fan of Revere, but I think it's silly that the criticism of him has now become "all his faults will undoubtedly continue and his good points are undoubtedly flukes"

His price will naturally go up as he reaches arbitration. His injuries and mediocre numbers should keep him from being very expensive, but he doesn't have to cost too much before he's a negative because he's just not very good.

I think his faults will continue because they are the types of things that do continue. Complete lack of power is unlikely to change. Bad arm. Will he develop a robotic one?

And I think his high average will not continue because it was largely BABIP driven. I agree fast guys have an advantage in BABIP, but it was really high even by his own norms.

Chances are, his batting average and OBP will go down and his power will not improve substantially. I'm playing the odds, not picking favorites.

philliesphhan wrote:If he's so worthless, why would his price be all that high? I don't think he's even arb eligible yet though. It also seems to me that a fast guy can have a higher BABIP. He can beat out a fair amount of ground balls in the infield for hits. I suppose the outfield can play in but outside of being lucky on some line drives, I'm not sure what advantage that really has as they're the toughest hit to defend.

I'm not the biggest fan of Revere, but I think it's silly that the criticism of him has now become "all his faults will undoubtedly continue and his good points are undoubtedly flukes"

Revere hit .231 on grounders (.231 OBP, .231 SLG) last year, as is normal. People who hit a lot of grounders generall suck. His problem is that he's worse on flyballs (due to no power). So line drive or bust.

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:A young, cheap corner outfielder who runs fast and could very well be a very fine defensive player. Who gets on base and adds value with base running.

Can't see any value in that.

The big key with Revere is the lingering effect of his injury. If he can't run fast, he's about worthless.

Clearly, he has zero power. That isn't good. But teams that focus on a guy's weakness and don't understand his strengths are bad teams.

The problem, of course, is that I saw very little of this elite defense and baserunning he's supposed to possess. Don't get me wrong, I would rather try to score him from 2B on a single than Ruf, but if that's the extent of his advantage, I'd rather go with Ruf or another option. And I don't buy his high OBP since it lasted about a month or so and was predicated on hitting .344 BABIP (and that includes his bad start) in a park that suppresses singles and doubles. It's also harder to score from 1B and that's almost always where he starts.

I do, however, think he has some value as a late game defender or baserunner. He could take over for Ruf or someone else when we have a lead or need a SB. So if they put him in that role, I'm fine with it. He's a better 5th OFer than Nix and some of the other clowns Ruben has put in that role. My concern is they see him as a starter with good enough offense to play a corner OF spot, which in my opinion would negate anything gained by getting a top CFer.

Why do you guys keep bringing up elite baserunning and defense? Who is saying that? Is he a better defender than say, Ibanez or Burrell? Most likely. By how much? By a lot. Could it be much more. Quite possible.

He has value. As a full time corner OFer? Some but not a LOT. As a 4th OFer type who gets quite a bit of playing time. I can see that.

I'm not sure what they see him as. It mostly depends on other moves they make. If he is completely healed, him as a starting Cfer would be fine if we get some help elsewhere. If we get a stud CFer and he becomes a full time LFer with Dom in right! that's not too bad. Not the best but not too bad. He MUST be a very good defender (and his arm really sucks so he has to make up for that as well). And he must get on base. And he must run the bases well. He showed some signs of being able to do that. We'll see.

How good a base runner is he? He is fast. That helps quite a bit. I don't think he played long enough last season to make a fair judgement.

In fact, I would say that for everything regarding him. He was looking pretty good when he went down with the foot. But last year was an incomplete. No one can say a whole lot with a ton of conviction regarding his ability although many do try.

I CAN say with conviction that his power is nonexistent and his arm is real bad. That a not a good start. But I believe he has some positives that might make him pretty valuable. That fact that last season ended so quickly and badly for a speed guy makes a good evaluation more guess work than anything else. But I am willing to try.

I don't think we're that far apart. You seem to see him having value as a 4th OFer, while I would go further and say he has value as a 5th OFer. I forgot to point out his God awful arm, which is also a problem.

He was sold to us as an elite defender and baserunner. That was supposed to be a lot of his value. I don't see many saying it these days, but I'm concerned the ptb still see him that way.

I don't even really like him in CF because I don't think it would take much to get something better, but he is still cheap, so I could live with it if they get a legit LFer. I just find it strange that you say he MUST be a very good defender and MUST get on base and MUST run the bases well in order to be any good and we still haven't seen him do at least two of those three things very well. He has gotten on base well over a short period, but his defense was average in CF, especially when you consider his noodle arm, and his base stealing was barely above the break even level. I feel like you're doing a lot of wishcasting here. Maybe he'll do the things you're hoping he'll do, but I think the odds are against him. His power is so bad that pretty much everything else has to go well for him to have value, and everything else rarely goes well.

My prediction for Revere, assuming he has a starting role, is that teams will learn to pitch to him because they'll have zero fear of making a mistake against him. The worst that happens is they groove one and he hits a line drive for a single. That's not going to scare anyone. I think the AL figured him out and the NL will too. I hate to be negative because he's likable and I want him to do the things you say he might do, but I think it's really, really unlikely.

The fact that his age 25 season was an incomplete makes evaluating him difficult -- in fact impossible because we have no idea how his injury will effect him. Using his career numbers makes little sense as he started his career at age 22 and is now only 26.

Anyways we are indeed close in our thinking. I'm giving an optimistic view of his future because I believe there are possibilities for him to provide value. What I meant by the things he MUST do is those are the things he must do in order to be a valuable starter. That doesn't mean he'll be worthless if he doesn't improve every aspect of his game.

Some other thoughts:

Stolen bases are only a part of baserunning. He is fast. I'm pretty confident he will provide value with his baserunning.

Getting on base is an important skill. He has shown some ability here.

He takes some crazy routes at times in the outfield. But he has speed. He can certainly be a good if not elite defender.

He will not hit for power and his arm sucks.

He debuted in MLB at age 22. I don't think there are a lot of pitchers around who haven't figured out how to pitch to him.

He's only 26.

He should be a very good 4th OFer if his foot/ankle is not screwed. He might even be a good starter. It's too soon to tell. That is the only thing I'm sure about regarding his prognosis.

A lot of people are not huge Revere fans. Not just the goths here. It's understandable. My main point though, is I like to not focus on a guy's weaknesses but to see if there is value in a player based on all available data. Using something like OPS is not exceptionally productive because his zero power means he will never wow you with his OPS. But that doesn't mean he is worthless.

He is a unique player. There aren't a lot of zero power guys who have been decent to good offensive players in recent decades. But there have been some. Revere gets a lot of infield hits. I think that means he'll have a high BABIP if I'm not mistaken. So him having a high BABIP may not be so unusual.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

smitty wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Which sounds nice, but means nothing.

It means something. The guy had a godawful start. He's not a .380 OBP guy. But he showed on base talent.

You can't take more data out of a sample size and have it give you a better picture of a player outside of extenuating circumstances. (Like injury)

You might not be able to do it but I sure can because I just did. It's an indicator. A young guy in a new league starting very slowly and then getting into a groove and begin to show some valuable skills is not merely taking data out of a small sample size. It's an indicator. It's not perfect. But it's an indicator.

It's something us Scouty types do all the time. Especially to the glove side.

wonder if they could talk the rockies into taking revere in a package for fowler. tell them he can cheaply patrol the vast coors outfield for a few years.