Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest GM?

Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Jul 31, 2013 18:36:21

I must be missing this. Top prospects are traded still. There have been several of these types of deals over the past three years. I just don't buy it.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Wed Jul 31, 2013 18:52:25

Brantt wrote:Salisbury says there was no interest in Young, Ruiz or Papelbon.


wouldn't be surprised to see Ruiz back again next year since he has sucked so bad he'll probably sign cheap.
I would rather see you lose than win myself

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby dajafi » Wed Jul 31, 2013 20:02:55

smitty wrote:Just read BP article by a guy from around here. He's some kind of smart guy. Anyway, he did this study using all sorts of terms and regression analysis chats and stuff I don't understand.

The study looked at GMs and their trading record. Amaro wasn't the greatest. He was second behind Dombrowski.

Basically, the Phillies got tons of WAR from Halladay, Oswalt and Pence and the guys we gave up for him haven't done much (yet, in several cases).

The bottom line is Amaro got a lot of value from guys he traded for and the guys he traded have yet to accumulate much in the way of value.


This doesn't surprise me. Generally, when you get the best player in the deal, you win the deal. Lee #1 and Doc were clear wins, even if D'Arnaud works out. Oswalt, we'll see, though even if Gose and Villar turn out to solid guys, I can't hate the deal because Oswalt was unhittable down the stretch that year. Even the Pence trade was defensible--though it was pretty clearly an overpay even at the time. Short of the unbelievable haul the Braves sent for Tex in 2007, I can't think of many quality plus quantity packages that compare. And he was a much better player than Pence.

The case against Amaro has almost nothing to do with trades. It's resource allocation, contracts, and general approach. That he's obnoxious adds some flavor to the disdain, admittedly, and that they claim to be a scouting organization yet have had so many high profile evaluation failures suggests he's simply full of shit.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Wed Jul 31, 2013 20:12:27

Squire wrote:Next time everyone says it makes sense to wait because "Player X" will be more valuable at the trade deadline, should remember today. I don't think that is the case anymore. If it ever was.

What people were saying that?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Soren » Wed Jul 31, 2013 20:16:13

dajafi wrote:The case against Amaro has almost nothing to do with trades. It's resource allocation, contracts, and general approach. That he's obnoxious adds some flavor to the disdain, admittedly, and that they claim to be a scouting organization yet have had so many high profile evaluation failures suggests he's simply full of #$!&@.


Head on. The bumbling makes the bravado unbearable. It's been death by paper cuts and the personality is just the salt for the wounds.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby sydnor » Wed Jul 31, 2013 20:17:22

dajafi wrote:
smitty wrote:Just read BP article by a guy from around here. He's some kind of smart guy. Anyway, he did this study using all sorts of terms and regression analysis chats and stuff I don't understand.

The study looked at GMs and their trading record. Amaro wasn't the greatest. He was second behind Dombrowski.

Basically, the Phillies got tons of WAR from Halladay, Oswalt and Pence and the guys we gave up for him haven't done much (yet, in several cases).

The bottom line is Amaro got a lot of value from guys he traded for and the guys he traded have yet to accumulate much in the way of value.


This doesn't surprise me. Generally, when you get the best player in the deal, you win the deal. Lee #1 and Doc were clear wins, even if D'Arnaud works out. Oswalt, we'll see, though even if Gose and Villar turn out to solid guys, I can't hate the deal because Oswalt was unhittable down the stretch that year. Even the Pence trade was defensible--though it was pretty clearly an overpay even at the time. Short of the unbelievable haul the Braves sent for Tex in 2007, I can't think of many quality plus quantity packages that compare. And he was a much better player than Pence.

The case against Amaro has almost nothing to do with trades. It's resource allocation, contracts, and general approach. That he's obnoxious adds some flavor to the disdain, admittedly, and that they claim to be a scouting organization yet have had so many high profile evaluation failures suggests he's simply full of #$!&@.


I think there are myriad ways to criticize the Pence trade because trades aren't made in a vacuum and this brings up something Matt Schwartz wrote about - they ignored where they were on the marginal revenue curve. The playoffs were basically a foregone conclusion at this point. So those wins were not worth as much to us as they would have if we were less likely to make the playoffs.

To me we traded a bunch of treasure to go from a ~20% chance to win the world series to ~21% chance to win the world series and a 95% chance of making the playoffs to a 98% chance. Note the numbers may be off in terms of level, but not increment.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Soren » Wed Jul 31, 2013 20:23:32

nevermind it's jeff

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Jul 31, 2013 21:04:41

dajafi wrote:
smitty wrote:Just read BP article by a guy from around here. He's some kind of smart guy. Anyway, he did this study using all sorts of terms and regression analysis chats and stuff I don't understand.

The study looked at GMs and their trading record. Amaro wasn't the greatest. He was second behind Dombrowski.

Basically, the Phillies got tons of WAR from Halladay, Oswalt and Pence and the guys we gave up for him haven't done much (yet, in several cases).

The bottom line is Amaro got a lot of value from guys he traded for and the guys he traded have yet to accumulate much in the way of value.


This doesn't surprise me. Generally, when you get the best player in the deal, you win the deal. Lee #1 and Doc were clear wins, even if D'Arnaud works out. Oswalt, we'll see, though even if Gose and Villar turn out to solid guys, I can't hate the deal because Oswalt was unhittable down the stretch that year. Even the Pence trade was defensible--though it was pretty clearly an overpay even at the time. Short of the unbelievable haul the Braves sent for Tex in 2007, I can't think of many quality plus quantity packages that compare. And he was a much better player than Pence.

The case against Amaro has almost nothing to do with trades. It's resource allocation, contracts, and general approach. That he's obnoxious adds some flavor to the disdain, admittedly, and that they claim to be a scouting organization yet have had so many high profile evaluation failures suggests he's simply full of shit.


Trying to figure out how we won all these trades, added a bazillion dollars in payroll, and dropped like 30 games in standings in last two years.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Jul 31, 2013 21:05:35

Team doesn't stretch enough, that's how
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Jul 31, 2013 21:35:53

That's the magic that is Ruben Amaro, Jr.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Shore » Wed Jul 31, 2013 21:53:02

Trent Steele wrote:
dajafi wrote:
smitty wrote:Just read BP article by a guy from around here. He's some kind of smart guy. Anyway, he did this study using all sorts of terms and regression analysis chats and stuff I don't understand.

The study looked at GMs and their trading record. Amaro wasn't the greatest. He was second behind Dombrowski.

Basically, the Phillies got tons of WAR from Halladay, Oswalt and Pence and the guys we gave up for him haven't done much (yet, in several cases).

The bottom line is Amaro got a lot of value from guys he traded for and the guys he traded have yet to accumulate much in the way of value.


This doesn't surprise me. Generally, when you get the best player in the deal, you win the deal. Lee #1 and Doc were clear wins, even if D'Arnaud works out. Oswalt, we'll see, though even if Gose and Villar turn out to solid guys, I can't hate the deal because Oswalt was unhittable down the stretch that year. Even the Pence trade was defensible--though it was pretty clearly an overpay even at the time. Short of the unbelievable haul the Braves sent for Tex in 2007, I can't think of many quality plus quantity packages that compare. And he was a much better player than Pence.

The case against Amaro has almost nothing to do with trades. It's resource allocation, contracts, and general approach. That he's obnoxious adds some flavor to the disdain, admittedly, and that they claim to be a scouting organization yet have had so many high profile evaluation failures suggests he's simply full of shit.


Trying to figure out how we won all these trades, added a bazillion dollars in payroll, and dropped like 30 games in standings in last two years.


I've had the same questions about contracts. Every guy we sign "earns" their money by FanGraphs WAR times Cost of Win or whatever, but our team blows.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Wed Jul 31, 2013 23:56:34

Heyman says Yankees offered to assume Young's money and give a prospect, Amaro said no.

Cashman then asked for Ruiz and was told he was unavailable.

Hmmm
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby mcare89 » Wed Jul 31, 2013 23:57:21

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Heyman says Yankees offered to assume Young's money and give a prospect, Amaro said no.

Cashman then asked for Ruiz and was told he was unavailable.

Hmmm

I have absolutely no idea why either of these things would happen.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Jul 31, 2013 23:58:04

Someone explain please

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jul 31, 2013 23:58:58

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Heyman says Yankees offered to assume Young's money and give a prospect, Amaro said no.

Cashman then asked for Ruiz and was told he was unavailable.

Hmmm

He also said Ruiz has no home runs this year.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Thu Aug 01, 2013 00:00:44

jerseyhoya wrote:
The Nightman Cometh wrote:Heyman says Yankees offered to assume Young's money and give a prospect, Amaro said no.

Cashman then asked for Ruiz and was told he was unavailable.

Hmmm

He also said Ruiz has no home runs this year.

He's off by one.

Gosh.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby mcare89 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 00:06:29

Trent Steele wrote:Someone explain please

The only, and I mean ONLY thing I can think of is the following. (This is a Grote-level Rube defense)

Rube knows Young will clear waivers and his thought process is that another month might bring a couple more bidders into the picture due to injuries or whatever. Maybe the same with Chooch, although I think he might be a more intriguing waiver claim given that he's really cheap.

I disagree with him, because I don't think Young's trade value gets any higher, and the point should be to get Asche and Ruf as many AB's as possible, but that's really the only possible rationale for not trading them today for literally anything.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby The Dude » Thu Aug 01, 2013 00:16:02

the easier thing is it's heyman,who blows, and let's not let our biases determine which sources piss us off
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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby mcare89 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 00:18:29

The Dude wrote:the easier thing is it's heyman,who blows, and let's not let our biases determine which sources piss us off

I mean, I agree, but the information is so specific that I feel like it's coming directly from the Yankees.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts- Ruben Amaro: Great GM or The Greatest

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Thu Aug 01, 2013 00:20:03

He also was pretty much the only one right on Lee as FA, kind of.
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