Trent Steele wrote:Brown will be fine. He has a 24% LD rate and an 11% BB rate. My fear is panic such that we end up seeing him on the bench when Young is activated. Rollins runs hot and cold. He'll be fine.

The problem is that Howard is terrible beyond my most pessimistic predictions. I cannot even remember the last time he came close to hitting a HR.

Also, although for some reason replacing Victorino's .340ish wOBA with the worst hitter in ML history seemed like a good idea at the time, it turns out that maybe that wasn't the way to go.

FTN wrote:i think charlie needs to be fired either way.

Shore wrote:

FTN wrote:i think charlie needs to be fired either way.

I don't care either way, but this mess isn't his.

The Phils are 9-12. The pitching, with a few exceptions, has been solid. The offense has been held to two or fewer runs 10 times.

Some people like it with a bit of butter, a smear of cream cheese. Some prefer jelly or a sprinkling of cinnamon. The more adventurous a poached egg or smoked fish or even baked beans. Whatever your preference, lather it onto the Philadelphia Phillies, because the Phils are toast.

//

So, what can the Phillies do to right their ship? They essentially have two options: retool for the short-term or rebuild for the long-term. The payroll and the organizational expectations for winning make both full of difficult choices. Coasting on dollars and the organizational strength of Pat Gillick's tenure are no longer good enough.

If the Phillies want a quick fix and postpone the day of reckoning, they'll have to do what the Red Sox did over the past year. During a 2012 season that could most kindly be described as an embarrassment, the Red Sox took a cleaver to the organization, cutting what it could, giving away a decent contract (that of Adrian Gonzalez) as the price paid to be relieved of a horrific one (Carl Crawford). This gave the Sox just enough breathing room to bring in enough midlevel free agents to hopefully support the team as it transitions to an age in which Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Allen Webster make up a good chunk of the team's core.

Doing a Boston-type deal might be the only way for the Phillies to get out from under the Ryan Howard contract. It's tough to pay someone to take a big part of your franchise's recent history off your hands, but with WARs of 1.3, 1.1, -1.1 and -0.1 (so far in 2013) going back to the start of 2010, Howard has little value to the team without some kind of rebirth.

Much like the Gonzalez-Crawford trade that the Red Sox made, Philly could tell teams: You can have Lee, but you must take Howard. Such a deal would clear a lot of payroll and possibly bring back some talent, as well. (Of course, that doesn't factor in contract clauses that allow Howard and Lee to block trades to two-thirds of the teams in the league.)

Option B is the total teardown and rebuild. The team still has tradable assets if it starts to prioritize the future rather than the present. But that requires a hard-hearted evaluation of the situation that the team finds itself in as of today, something that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and his organization have given little public indication that they recognize.

It means giving Domonic Brown the year to sink or swim, no matter what Delmon Young's recovery schedule is. It means giving Darin Ruf playing time in the majors to see what the team has in him, whether he can give the team five years as a solid starter. It means losing an asset such as Cliff Lee. It means giving prospects Jon Pettibone and Adam Morgan extended shots in the majors as soon as possible and not losing patience when they take a few lumps.

It's always tough for a team with a high payroll to admit that it needs to rebuild, but what's spent is practically irrelevant, a sunk cost, and fixing holes with the Delmon Youngs of the world won't get the Phillies a playoff spot. Remember, the Phillies have a harder climb now than they did three weeks ago; when the records were 0-0, they only had to be better than the Braves and Nationals to win the division, but now they have to be five games better than the Braves and two better than the Nationals, with fewer games to go.

Eem wrote:I think I would trade Howard straight up for all but like 5 major league players right now.

Some people like it with a bit of butter, a smear of cream cheese. Some prefer jelly or a sprinkling of cinnamon. The more adventurous a poached egg or smoked fish or even baked beans. Whatever your preference, lather it onto the Philadelphia Phillies, because the Phils are toast.

Shore wrote:What might have made sense is telling the Dodgers they can have Lee if they take Howard, too.

They're apparently made of money, and they play James effing Loney at 1B. We clear $50M, and can reload.

I say this because I believe that Howard's 2013-2016 seasons aren't really going to be worth $100M. Or maybe even $35M.

Shore wrote:3 weeks later, Dodgers and Red Sox make the move.

FTN wrote:crossing your fingers isnt a strategy.

FTN wrote:cliff lee is great. but what is the point in having a $25m starter on this team if you're looking at a 79-85 win team?

FTN wrote:we are paying him like hes one of the 5 best players in the game.