WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Wed Feb 20, 2013 22:18:01

Jon Heyman wrote:domonic brown's name came up in trade talks with the #astros this winter, but philly isnt eager to trade an OF

hmmmm

by **Trent Steele** » Wed Feb 20, 2013 22:22:25

maybe we get tim byrdak or some other dogshit reliever

by **Barry Jive** » Thu Feb 21, 2013 00:26:09

i'm guessing that's about Wilton Lopez, and the Phils were like "nope"

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Thu Feb 21, 2013 02:41:27

Warszawa wrote:
Jon Heyman wrote:domonic brown's name came up in trade talks with the #astros this winter, but philly isnt eager to trade an OF

hmmmm

Well, you can't trade outfielders when the plan is to throw a bunch of them on the wall to see which ones stick.

by **uncle milt** » Thu Feb 21, 2013 07:53:31

Phan In Phlorida wrote:Well, you can't trade outfielders when the plan is to throw a bunch of them on the wall to see which ones stick.

that explains why they didn't bring abreu in

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Feb 21, 2013 16:12:07

uncle milt wrote:
Phan In Phlorida wrote:Well, you can't trade outfielders when the plan is to throw a bunch of them on the wall to see which ones stick.

that explains why they didn't bring abreu in

by **phorever** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 15:51:20

since no one bothered to bump yet...

one thing the pundits seem to overlook about the phils is the number of key spots manned by
(a) players in the age 25-30 peak window where career years happen
or
(b) veterans whose tendency to decline in productivity is this year balanced by the tendency to regress upward from an anomalously bad year relative to the normal career curve, particularly if it was caused by an injury that is expected to be fully healed.

group (a) is brown,revere, hamels, kendrick, lannan, bastardo, horst, cloyd, mayberry, evil young, and a whole bunch of back-of-pen-fodder.
group (b) is m.young, halladay, utley, howard

brown and evil young might fit in both groups depending on how much of a problem the hamate was for brown in 2012, and how much young really was suffering and really can recover.

so, lots more upside potential than the ¨aging core¨ reality normally implies.

by **smitty** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 15:56:55

They also have a couple of guys like Joseph and Asche who might be pretty close. They need to make a bit of a leap. Valle might be in that group. Galvis' glove is fantastic and even Cesar Hernandez might be helpful soon.

Their young guys aren't close to the Texas farm or one of the other stocked systems around MLB. But they have more young position players ready or possibly ready than at any time I can think of recently.

by **phorever** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:19:05

smitty wrote:They also have a couple of guys like Joseph and Asche who might be pretty close. They need to make a bit of a leap. Valle might be in that group. Galvis' glove is fantastic and even Cesar Hernandez might be helpful soon.

i didn´t include galvis and asche only because they are technically too young for the peak window, and joseph because he definitely will be kept in the minors to get defensive experience and i was only considering 2013. i do think the contribution galvis and asche could make this year is being underestimated.

also worth noting that my post was inspired by the recent release of the 2013 marcel projections at the baseballheatmaps site. the estimates there for young were pretty good, and that system is more regression-to-the-mean heavy than most.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:26:07

All that is true. But, with the exception of Hamels, all of the the peak or near-peak (or minor-league) guys are essentially complementary guys, not the elite, MVP/Cy Young level of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee at their peak. So, looking down the road over the next few years, you've pretty much got a donut, with some really solid guys around the edge, but a pretty big hole to fill in the center as Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee continue to decline.

by **Grotewold** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:33:41

JFLNYC wrote:All that is true. But, with the exception of Hamels, all of the the peak or near-peak (or minor-league) guys are essentially complementary guys, not the elite, MVP/Cy Young level of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee at their peak. So, looking down the road over the next few years, you've pretty much got a donut, with some really solid guys around the edge, but a pretty big hole to fill in the center as Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee continue to decline.

I wouldn't lump Lee in there yet, and we'll either have an effective Halladay next year or a good replacement.

Rollins and Utley are declining, but were very effective last year. Howard I feel like declined in 2009 and can be productive the next few years, but we'll see about that. Obviously we'll need another difference-making hitter soon, preferably on a low deal

But really, how many teams can't you say this stuff about? And of those, how many have our resources?

There's a big gap between We're Not the Nationals and We're Gonna Suck

by **smitty** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:34:07

We gonna buy us some elite guys. And after that Maikel Franco and Roman Quinn will be battling for MVP awards with a couple of their tool sheds like Cozens and Greene (or Green).

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:43:34

Grotewold wrote:But really, how many teams can't you say this stuff about? And of those, how many have our resources?

There's a big gap between We're Not the Nationals and We're Gonna Suck

The goal is not to be like many teams, but to be better than them and the gap between the Nats and suckage is called mediocrity.

The Phils excelled when they had 3 elite hitters in their primes. Those 3 hitters may still be productive, but they're no longer elite and that's the point. None of the team's peak or past-peak hitters are elite and replacing 3 of them is hugely difficult no matter what your resources are.

by **Grotewold** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:45:25

JFLNYC wrote:The goal is not to be like many teams, but to be better than them and the gap between the Nats and suckage is called mediocrity.

Eight teams advance to the division series each year.

JFLNYC wrote:The Phils excelled when they had 3 elite hitters in their primes.

With one elite starting pitcher. Now they're based on tremendous pitching, like the Giants, and have doubled their payroll.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:51:52

How's that working out so far?

by **Grotewold** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 16:54:07

JFLNYC wrote:How's that working out so far?

It's working really well for the Giants. Until last year's injury-wrecked season, it was working really well for us, with more and more wins each year.

If you're referring to the offense's playoff performance, that was actually no great shakes in 2008. We got that one with Cole, great relief, and some huge timely hits from "non-elites," after barely sneaking in to the playoffs

by **smitty** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 17:28:09

141; 117; 96; 79; 104. That was the ERA pluses of the starting rotation of the WFC Phillies.

Hamels was great. Moyer, Myers, Eaton and Blanton not really great.

They did have a pretty badass bullpen which is what I'm predicting for our guys this year.

by **phorever** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 17:30:35

JFLNYC wrote:All that is true. But, with the exception of Hamels, all of the the peak or near-peak (or minor-league) guys are essentially complementary guys, not the elite, MVP/Cy Young level of Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee at their peak. So, looking down the road over the next few years, you've pretty much got a donut, with some really solid guys around the edge, but a pretty big hole to fill in the center as Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay and Lee continue to decline.

they´ve got halladay and utley money available to sign their replacements, lee isn´t yet declining.
brown and revere have at least all-star potential. i think asche and joseph do too. they have enough solid starters coming up to be able to fill the back of the rotation at above average levels and still be able to trade for someone like olt if another team gets desperate for pitching.

2014-15 could have
hamel lee free-agent martin biddle in the rotation
free-agent revere brown starting outfield
howard-olt-rollins-asche-joseph (with galvis as defensive sub and ruf to platoon with howard) in the infield
papelbon-bastard-aumont-horst etc in the pen

quinn and franco and other good guys in the lower levels could be ready to step up after that.

by **phdave** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 17:47:33

smitty wrote:141; 117; 96; 79; 104. That was the ERA pluses of the starting rotation of the WFC Phillies.

Hamels was great. Moyer, Myers, Eaton and Blanton not really great.

They did have a pretty badass bullpen which is what I'm predicting for our guys this year.

And they were second in the league in runs scored.

by **Barry Jive** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 17:54:19

I don't get the stuff about our resources, Grote. They're not cracking the luxury tax. It's possible they may not have done it this year because there wasn't an elite talent they wanted. But that doesn't help them for 2013. And the resources they do have that would help them this year are paltry, because they expended most of their farm system over the past few years. I'm not disagreeing with your overall point but I don't get that part.

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