smitty wrote:
I think you need to re-read the article. He's not saying anything much different than you. Although he also adds that lineup construction isn't all that important anyway. I think his main point is Manuel should stop tinkering so much with the lineup and simply use his best hitters further up in the lineup. Pretty much what folks here are saying.
A real shakeup would have the first four as Rollins, Victorino, Pence, Mayberry/Thome, where the better hitters bat upfront. I have no problem batting Rollins leadoff instead of Victorino, but it’s better for the Phillies if Vic and Pence are closer to the top of the order. Where they bat is more important than Rollins’ spot.
yep, didn't follow my own advice and read before snarking. in this case was not scrolling all the way to the end and thus missing the fact that he actually advocated putting rollins first. the weird thing is that he started off stating very clearly that victorino should bat ahead of rollins.
about batting order not being significant... i frankly don't trust 90% of what i read about batting order, because almost none of the studies cited take baserunning skills into account. the guys at inside-the-book have looked into this more than most. the combination of high sb counts, high sb %, good base advance skills and a high enough obp to take advantage of these is what matters, and...
it just got harder to hate pierre, even with all of the horrible memories of wheels drooling over him while he crushed philly hopes (really, that was pretty darn horrible). i didn't realize how favorably his baserunning value compared with that of rollins over the years. a bit lower in success rate (which is what I had in mind), but higher in frequency and apparently better base advance skills. that and defensive value really do put his typical seasons way ahead of the likes of nix and wiggy. the 2011 edition of pierre really truely sucked, and 2008 was pretty awful. baserunning and defense both down in those years. presumably problems with his wheels. other than that, older pierre is good for 1.5-2.5 wins a year. that's better than the negative from raul last year. better than wiggy and nix can give unless a platoon works perfectly. and, given that dom brown's defense still seems to totally cancel his offense, pierre may really be the phils best lf option... as long as his legs are healthy again.
so, i'll shut up about benching pierre and batting him lower until we have enough date to know whether we have the 09-10 version or the 2008/2011 version.
