I want the Phillies to give Kazmir a minor league deal.

And sign Vlad.

Barry Jive wrote:

joe table wrote:Ya but 7 years for Chole would take him to age 34, while we're paying Lee to age 36. And apparently Lee had an offer for 7 from Yanks

I just think it's hard to draw sensible lines for objective worth of Hamels (ie I'm okay with 6, but 7, see ya). He's potentially worth so goddamn much to the 2013-15 teams with Lee and Halladay (ie they could maintain our WS contention status even if we do really decline to piss suck offense) that I personally find it hard to see a point where diminishing marginal utility would make me unhappy with a deal. Plus 170mm payroll teams can survive these surplus contract years (w/high probabilities of poor return on investment at the back end of deals), we've seen it here with Lidge and Ibanez and the Yanks/Sox have been carrying those deals for years. IMO it's okay to take this "credit card" type approach for certain FAs if 1) their short term value is crucial and 2) we think the revenues are going to remain stable in future. I see 1) and 2) as both true in this case

I recognize the differences there but I also just mean for an extension. I just don't see the point in locking him up pre-FA if we're just going to give him a FA-esque deal anyway

Yeah I don't see pre-FA signing likely at this point, so my assumption is open market. Would love to be wrong. At this point I just hope they keep it cordial/don't give any reason for Chole to get sand in his vagina from the negotiations. Right now I'd probably offer him exact Lee deal (good offer and good for symbolic purposes). When he gets to FA, I'd be willing to go as far as exactly what Yankees are offering (which probably IMO will be 7 years, assuming no injury this season). If he turns us down at exact terms Yankees offer and he's willing to relocate his family at no extra cash, then we did what we could

i was just thinking about how fucking intense it's going to be to see thome in those blue shorts and red warmup jacket in a few days

SMUG on NBC10 Sports Final

-- the age of the regulars isn't a concern and it wouldn't be brought up all the time if the guys weren't injured
-- still no room for Oswalt, and they think Pineiro could fill in if they needed another starter
-- expects Utley and Howard to have big bounceback years
-- Dom could still be in the mix for LF if he has a huge spring training, but they aren't counting on that happening
-- expects more smallball

BigEd76 wrote:-- the age of the regulars isn't a concern and it wouldn't be brought up all the time if the guys weren't injured

hmm

Barry Jive wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:-- the age of the regulars isn't a concern and it wouldn't be brought up all the time if the guys weren't injured

hmm

chicken meet egg

Barry Jive wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:-- the age of the regulars isn't a concern and it wouldn't be brought up all the time if the guys weren't injured

hmm

I lol'd. Then hit my head on my desk.

Then I remembered that the Phillies will still win 90+ games this season.

Here's a quote for us all to over-analyze:

“You accomplish it by guys stepping up and noticing some of their, you know, their faults, and reorganizing the way they think about the offense,” Amaro said on Saturday during an interview with Howard Eskin on 94 WIP. “You have to understand that the long ball’s not going to be as essential a part of our game, and we have to kind of live by that. We have some speed on the club. We have some guys who move runners. If they dedicate themselves to doing that, we’ll have a much better offensive club.”

Given his age, his overall health and the fact that he's added velocity/a solid 3rd pitch I can't see any reason why you wouldn't offer CHOLE solid money.

There is a difference between solid money and money that screws the rest of the team.

Its easy to say "Give Cole 7/140", which I'm sure is the starting point. You hope you can get him for 6/110.

Lets say its 6/120. That means you have your top 3 starting pitchers making $65M combined. Halladay has a vesting option for 2014, Lee is signed through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. Hamels will be locked up through 2017 or 2018.

Howard is here forever. Rollins for 3 or 4 years. But you need to figure out CF, 2B when Utley's contract expires in 2 years, 3B which is currently a black hole, RF if Pence walks, and maybe C as Ruiz nears the end of his productive years.

If the team wasn't afraid of the lux tax, then it wouldn't be an issue keeping Hamels, but so far that appears to be the internal cap.

As much as I dont want to really say it, this might have been the winter to trade Hamels. Considering how awesome he is, even with only 1 year before free agency, we might have been able to add 2-3 elite talents with 0-1 years of service time that could have helped set up our club for the next 5 years. I also think that instead of paying Hamels $20M per, it might make sense to allocate $25M total next winter on 2 SP, one to replace Hamels and 1 to replace Blanton. There will be relative bargains. The Yankees got Kuroda fairly cheaply on a 1 year deal this year. Obviously having a top 10-15 SP locked up for 6 years is nice, but we don't appear to be getting a discount from him. That could be posturing. He seems to love Philly, and it might just be his agent telling him to wear the stone face now and appear willing to walk, when in reality he just wants to get as much as he can from Philly with no intention of leaving.

let's plat small ball in a ballpark that suppresses singles and doubles.

I don't care how many big trades he pulls off (thanks to a stocked minors), I'll never think RAJ knows what he's doing. I think he hit his peak for me the week he was Batboy.

Fangraphs says Papelbon had the best fastball in all of the majors in 2011 and they did it without mentioning his contract: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -fastball/

Monkeyboy wrote:let's plat small ball in a ballpark that suppresses singles and doubles.

I don't care how many big trades he pulls off (thanks to a stocked minors), I'll never think RAJ knows what he's doing. I think he hit his peak for me the week he was Batboy.

I tend not to believe anything Rube says for public consumption. But if he does believe his veteran hitters are fundamentally going to change their approach at the plate, he's delusional.

yeah I've been staunchly against overanalyzing anything Rube says but the more he and Cholly talk about hitting the more annoyed I get

I'm not sure its really fundamentally possible for a hitter with 7-8 years of big league experience to change their approach. Hitters generally improve their batting eye as they age, but I don't think the same holds true for contact rate.

Eem wrote:Fangraphs says Papelbon had the best fastball in all of the majors in 2011 and they did it without mentioning his contract: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -fastball/

thats pretty awesome i loved the video from late september striking out 3 bitches on straight cheese

Ruben is once again ahead of the curve. Run scoring is down. When that happens, teams start using one run strategies a bit more. Phils will use the hit and run 3 more times in 2012 than they did last year. Book it.

Howard will also chase 4 fewer slop pitches out of the strike zone.

Veteran hitters reinventing themselves is the new market inefficiency.

Gonna win 95 to 105 in the regular season, regardless of what size ball they play.

I just want there to at least be the possibility of being able to go walk/sb/bunt/sac fly at some point late in a postseason game.

Single game ticket presale for Phillies E-mail Club members until 10 PM tonight. Can purchase up to 6 games (limit of 6 tix per game). YE.