2011 Random Phillies Stuff IV: A New Injury

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 00:21:38

I know this has been said many times, many ways, but that this team has not scored more than 4 runs in its last 13 games and it is 9-4 in that span is so fucking absurd

by **Eem** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 00:22:00

jerseyhoya wrote:I know this has been said many times, many ways, but that this team has not scored more than 4 runs in its last 13 games and it is 9-4 in that span is so fucking absurd

CLIFF LEE

by **swishnicholson** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 01:42:46

So I just got back from Montreal where they care a awful lot, no really, an abnormally, distorted and totally incomprehensible amount about hockey and next to nothing about west coast baseball, so I had a lot of catching up to do.

But it was easy peasy since since:

the Phillies still can't hit

Roy Halladay is throwing lots and lots of pitches but

It's the guys who only throw a few pitches at a time who keep getting hurt and

The Phillies keep on winning anyway.

It's a good plan or at least a workable one and maybe I just need another foreign country to travel to to keep it working.

PS Rollins will be fine and maybe Ibanez too and Roy is awesome.

by **stevelxa476** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 07:36:20

BigEd76 wrote:I believe someone has to get dropped from the 40-man, right?

They had an open spot from when they sent that reliever whose name is escaping me back to the Cubs.

by **CFP** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:04:44

http://www.thefightins.com/danger-guerr ... more-13962

Classic

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:04:39

Big 4

10-4
110.1 IP
94 H
34 ER
5 HRA
22 UIBB
113 Ks
5.13 K to BB ratio
1.06 WHIP
2.78 ERA

by **jamiethekiller** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:07:56

Trent Steele wrote:Big 4

10-4
110.1 IP
94 H
34 ER
5 HRA
22 UIBB
113 Ks
5.13 K to BB ratio
1.06 WHIP
2.78 ERA

kind of a let down honestly

by **bleh** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:13:34

I just realized that Jimmy leads the team with 11 walks. He has 7 walks in the last 8 games (and a .457 OPS unfortunately).

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:35:44

jamiethekiller wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Big 4

10-4
110.1 IP
94 H
34 ER
5 HRA
22 UIBB
113 Ks
5.13 K to BB ratio
1.06 WHIP
2.78 ERA

kind of a let down honestly

If you believe they only control (to an extent) BB, Ks, and HRA, it's hard to imagine how they could be much better.

by **BigEd76** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:41:44

bleh wrote:I just realized that Jimmy leads the team with 11 walks. He has 7 walks in the last 8 games (and a .457 OPS unfortunately).

and he has as many RBIs as Blanton and less than 2-hit Schneider

by **Wheels Tupay** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:50:17

jerseyhoya wrote:I know this has been said many times, many ways, but that this team has not scored more than 4 runs in its last 13 games and it is 9-4 in that span is so #$&! absurd

Merry Christmas to you?

by **Soren** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:54:06

CHOLE minus BABIP special vs the Mets:

22 IP, 2 ER 23K/6BB

by **drsmooth** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:56:56

Wheels Tupay wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:I know this has been said many times, many ways, but that this team has not scored more than 4 runs in its last 13 games and it is 9-4 in that span is so #$&! absurd

Merry Christmas to you?

it's like the mid-70s again

foreeeeeeeeeverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr youngggggggggggggg......

by **BigEd76** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 12:11:30

AP points out the Phils are hitting .212 during this 5-game winning streak, while their opponents are hitting .188

by **Barry Jive** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 13:46:22

hey, it's like the '60s!

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 13:50:07

Howard has some crazy swing stats going on

Out of Zone Swings: 32.8% (same as last year, but up from 26% from 2005 -2009)
In Zone Swings: 65.5% (68.4% last year and around 74% from 2005 -2009)
Out of Zone Swings that make contact: 64% (48% last year and up from around 40% from 2005-2009)
In Zone Swings that make contact: 77% (82% last year and 79% for career)
Contact rate: 72% (68% last year and 67% for career)
Swinging Strike %: 12.6% (14.6% last year and over 15.5% from 2005-2009)
First Strike %: 66% (54.8% for his career)

So, this year so far has seen a continuation of the following trends:

1.) Howard swings at alot more pitches out of the zone
2.) Howard swings at alot fewer pitches in the zone
3.) Howard makes ALOT more contact with the non-strikes
4.) Howard makes less contact with the strikes (of which he swings at alot less frequently than he used to)

I don't like any of this. He looks like a guess hitter that is guessing wrong more often than in the past, resulting in him taking more good pitches and making weak contact on bad

by **smitty** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 14:09:59

Speaking of freaking out about high pitch counts, this is really where it matters and where guys are actually getting arm damage:

Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

Another weekend, another great start for Bauer and more time to debate his workload. He was incredible again in Friday, striking out 17 while tossing a four-hit complete game against Stanford, and once again, he threw a ton of pitches, finishing the night at 135. With more that three times as many whiffs (127) than hits allowed (41) over 82 2/3 innings, he's been the most dominant performer in a great year for college arms, and scouts adore his combination of stuff and pitchability to the point that he's moved into the top five picks in the draft, and maybe even the top three. That being said, the workload is still too high. There are plenty who want to write it off due to his unique routines and long tossing, but that's a dangerous act. Sure, he just might be that next guy like Sabathia, or Halladay, or Lincecum, where the pitch counts really don't matter than much, but baseball has never found a pattern for identifying them, and it's still a huge risk.

From KG at BP.

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 14:12:41

Trent Steele wrote:Howard has some crazy swing stats going on

Out of Zone Swings: 32.8% (same as last year, but up from 26% from 2005 -2009)
In Zone Swings: 65.5% (68.4% last year and around 74% from 2005 -2009)
Out of Zone Swings that make contact: 64% (48% last year and up from around 40% from 2005-2009)
In Zone Swings that make contact: 77% (82% last year and 79% for career)
Contact rate: 72% (68% last year and 67% for career)
Swinging Strike %: 12.6% (14.6% last year and over 15.5% from 2005-2009)
First Strike %: 66% (54.8% for his career)

So, this year so far has seen a continuation of the following trends:

1.) Howard swings at alot more pitches out of the zone
2.) Howard swings at alot fewer pitches in the zone
3.) Howard makes ALOT more contact with the non-strikes
4.) Howard makes less contact with the strikes (of which he swings at alot less frequently than he used to)

I don't like any of this. He looks like a guess hitter that is guessing wrong more often than in the past, resulting in him taking more good pitches and making weak contact on bad

We should hire the world's best Rock/Paper/Scissor player to instruct Ryan how to guess better.

by **lethal** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 14:35:19

jerseyhoya wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Howard has some crazy swing stats going on

Out of Zone Swings: 32.8% (same as last year, but up from 26% from 2005 -2009)
In Zone Swings: 65.5% (68.4% last year and around 74% from 2005 -2009)
Out of Zone Swings that make contact: 64% (48% last year and up from around 40% from 2005-2009)
In Zone Swings that make contact: 77% (82% last year and 79% for career)
Contact rate: 72% (68% last year and 67% for career)
Swinging Strike %: 12.6% (14.6% last year and over 15.5% from 2005-2009)
First Strike %: 66% (54.8% for his career)

So, this year so far has seen a continuation of the following trends:

1.) Howard swings at alot more pitches out of the zone
2.) Howard swings at alot fewer pitches in the zone
3.) Howard makes ALOT more contact with the non-strikes
4.) Howard makes less contact with the strikes (of which he swings at alot less frequently than he used to)

I don't like any of this. He looks like a guess hitter that is guessing wrong more often than in the past, resulting in him taking more good pitches and making weak contact on bad

We should hire the world's best Rock/Paper/Scissor player to instruct Ryan how to guess better.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/scie ... ssors.html

by **JFLNYC** » Mon Apr 25, 2011 14:37:01

Howard's always been a guess hitter. Early in his career they used to throw him first-pitch fastballs to try and get ahead of him, but he murdered those pitches. So, for the last few years, they mostly throw him off speed first pitches. At first, he was still guessing fastball and was horrible. Now he guesses off speed. He has absolutely horrible pitch recognition which, of course, is why he is so much of a guess hitter. To his credit, he's learned to hit the off-speed stuff better. The big problem is he's a fastball hitter who pretty much never guesses fastball anymore. And, since he's guessing off-speed, it appears he chases a lot of it out of the zone because he's so happy he's guessed right.

I wonder if he wouldn't be better off never swinging at an off-speed pitch until he's got two strikes in the hope that, by working the count and being patient, he'd get a fastball he could mangle rather than settling for some of those funky swings he takes at off-speed stuff, simply because he knows it's coming.

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