And the velocity was . . . ?

You see, my hypothesis is that Lidge has to approach mid-90's on his FB to be effective. Why? He doesn't throw the slider for strikes very often. If hitters lay off it, work the count to their advantage and then sit on an 89-91 MPH FB, Lidge is going to have trouble getting guys out.

Where did they land?

JFLNYC wrote:Where did they land?

Hopefully Will Caroll's pie hole

Speaking of Jimmy Rollins, I've always been curious as to how his early swinging effects his numbers as opposed to him being more patient and working long counts. You always read and hear that he'd be a lot better if he waited pitchers out more.

Fortunately, Bill James has data that allows us to look at this stuff. It's called the Short and Long AB. He breaks it out as follows: One and done; Short ABs (1-3); long (4+) and 7 up (7+). I guess the one and done and 7 up are also included in the short and long AB stuff so those two are just further break downs of the short and long ABs.

Anyways, here's the league averages for 2007:

One and done: .344/.349/.543 .892 OPS

Short AB: .301/.317./.467 .784 OPS

Long AB: .223/.352/.348 .700 OPS

7 up: .230/.406/.372 .778 OPS

Here's Rollins OPS in the four categories since 2005:

'05 -- .907 -- ..733 -- .816 -- .657

'06 -- .806 --.795 -- .820 -- .522

'07 -- .807 -- .804 -- .932 -- .891

'08 -- .830 -- .825 -- .745 -- .636

'09 -- .911 -- .756 -- .670 -- .697

He does better in his long ABs than in his short ones, which is unusual But his one and done stats are pretty good (although below the average). In his best year, he was really good in his long at bats(and he had more of them than short ABs). Last year, a very bad one for him, he did poorly in his long ABs (and he had fewer of then than short ABs).

An interesting thing I ran across when doing this. Utley is usually better in short ABs than in long ABs. Sometimes by a lot -- often more than 100 OPS points. Last year he had a 1.074 OPS in short ABS and only .764 in long ABs. Also:

In 2008, Chase Utley had 51 7-ups. This matches his career high from 2006. Utley's batting average for 7-ups was .216 in 2008, .235 in 2007, .235 for 2006, .214 for 2005, and .227 for 2004. That's a pretty narrow range. In contrast, Bobby Abreu has been in the 50s for 7-ups (56 in 2007 and 54 in 2006 and 2005), but his average in 7-ups fluctuates quite a bit (.217 in 2008, .357 in 2007, .278 in 2005).
- Andrew Walsh

RE: the fluctuation in 7 and ups

How many PAs are we talking here? Also, going by the eye test IRT Utley, if he is swinging early it's because he got some kind of meatball. I thought I remember seeing an article about the overwhelming number of first pitch fastballs he gets because he almost always takes.

Soren wrote:RE: the fluctuation in 7 and ups

How many PAs are we talking here? Also, going by the eye test IRT Utley, if he is swinging early it's because he got some kind of meatball. I thought I remember seeing an article about the overwhelming number of first pitch fastballs he gets because he almost always takes.

7 ups will have fluctuation due to small samples (i.e. Abreu). The thing that's weird abut Utley is, he has been very consistently bad in those ABs. Obviously he's gonna walk a lot when he has a 7 up type AB. But he consistently has not hit much in those instances.

He's had 234 ABs in this situation in his career. It looks like his BA is in the .220s somewhere. His slugging averages over the last three seasons in 7+ ABs have been: .290; .313 and ,191 (!). This is over 128 ABs -- not a huge sample but pretty interesting nonetheless.

I'd like to fool around with this some more and look at some of the other Phillie hitters. It's kinda interesting and eye-opening in many ways as well.

Regarding his one and done ABs. He hits the ball fair between 30 and 50 times a year. Last year, it was only 27 times. He crushes the ball really well first pitch hitting.

Looking at the Phillies' 25-man roster... what do the Phillies do when Blanton, Lidge, and Romero all return? Looks dicey.

For Blanton... Kendrick to AAA.
For Romero... offer Herndon back to the Angels?
For Lidge... cut Figueroa? cut Baez?

CrashburnAlley wrote:Looking at the Phillies' 25-man roster... what do the Phillies do when Blanton, Lidge, and Romero all return? Looks dicey.

For Blanton... Kendrick to AAA.
For Romero... offer Herndon back to the Angels?
For Lidge... cut Figueroa? cut Baez?

Figueroa; Kendrick and Bastardo? I think they really like Herndon and for good reason I believe.

CrashburnAlley wrote:Looking at the Phillies' 25-man roster... what do the Phillies do when Blanton, Lidge, and Romero all return? Looks dicey.

For Blanton... Kendrick to AAA.
For Romero... offer Herndon back to the Angels?
For Lidge... cut Figueroa? cut Baez?

Blanton...Kendrick
Romero...Bastardo
Lidge...Wilson Valdez (Jimmy won't be gone forever )

They might as well offer Herndon back now because I can't see them going the whole season and playoffs with only one lefty in the pen. If not Bastardo then Eyre when he gets back from his RV trip.

Plus if you keep the outsider Herndon as long relief and demote good soldier Kendrick that could maybe cause some grumbling.

Hasn't Kendrick been kind of a bitch?

I gotta say, I respect what he's done for this team during his time here, but I'm not that pumped up about Romero's return

Safe to assume they'll skip Happ's spot next week thanks to the off day on 4/29? I have tickets to 5/1 and want me some Roy

ek wrote:i don't think they do that this early in the year. maybe later on

note: I had a post here about giving Doc an extra day that I deleted somehow. thanks ek

Grotewold wrote:

ek wrote:i don't think they do that this early in the year. maybe later on

note: I had a post here about giving Doc an extra day that I deleted somehow. thanks ek

I'd have thought they would want to keep Doc on his regular rest as much as possible, given how much he sticks to his routines.

Moyer is now 109-0 when given a 5-run lead (with 8 ND).

Grotewold wrote:Safe to assume they'll skip Happ's spot next week thanks to the off day on 4/29? I have tickets to 5/1 and want me some Roy

samsies. I would kill for a Roy start. Literally I would end another human being's life.

Soren wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Safe to assume they'll skip Happ's spot next week thanks to the off day on 4/29? I have tickets to 5/1 and want me some Roy

samsies. I would kill for a Roy start. Literally I would end another human being's life.

(Cody Ross...)

WheelsFellOff wrote:I'd have thought they would want to keep Doc on his regular rest as much as possible, given how much he sticks to his routines.

I know it keeps me regular being able to routinely pencil in a W on the days of his starts

Grotewold wrote:

Soren wrote:

Grotewold wrote:Safe to assume they'll skip Happ's spot next week thanks to the off day on 4/29? I have tickets to 5/1 and want me some Roy

samsies. I would kill for a Roy start. Literally I would end another human being's life.

(Cody Ross...)

But is Ross human? I think it's some sort of troll-gnome hybrid.