BigEd76 wrote:it ends bad?

Just when I think I am out...yadda yadda yadda.

another bump. we got to stick together!

There used to be a society...

FTN wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:We are going to sweep the Mets this weekend. Believe it.

no we're not.

you don't believe it.

i don't.

not even shore does.

its over.

I really did think we would sweep them. Right up until that inning. No longer. I'm obviously not bailing at this point, however.

you should bail.

none of us deserve all of this

TenuredVulture wrote:There used to be a society...

of tom gorzelanny?

Still in, but worried.

People, people, people. There is no reason at all to give up hope of the division. In a race this close, which this one has been all year, it's all about who gets hot last, and there is no reason to think the Phillies can't be that team. Looking at their remaining schedules, the Phillies have 12 of 18 at home, and 14/19 against .500 or worse teams, and two off days remaining, one during the final week. The Mets have the same number of home games, but have a four game series with the Cubs during the last week of the season (and I know they might not be playing for anything, but I can't imagine the Cubs taking a dive against a possible playoff opponent), and use all their remaining off days this week. I'd say the schedule favors the Phillies slightly.

More importantly, I just did a quick review of each fifteen game stretch, beginning with game 1, through game 120. Take a look:

Games Phillies Mets Difference

1-15 7-8 9-6 -2
16-30 10-5 7-8 +3
31-45 7-8 6-9 +1
46-60 11-4 8-7 +3
61-75 7-8 7-8 -
76-90 6-9 9-6 -3
91-105 8-7 11-4 -3
106-120 8-7 7-8 +1

I know that, to be thorough, I should look at literally EVERY 15 game stretch (1-15, 2-16, 3-17, etc.), but just a quick glance at this tells me its as likely as not that one team will outperform the other over the course of 19 games by 2 games or more (and the Phillies have the jump, winning last night). Here's what the Phillies and Mets did between game 120 and last night, to get us up to the current minute:

Games Phillies Mets Difference

121-143 14-9 16-7 -2


I know the other flaw --- the Phillies and Mets played each other during many of these stretches, and thus directly affected the difference between them. But, it just seems to me that all teams that are not "very memorably god" (i.e., at least 100 wins, and maybe more like 105) go through good and bad streaks. The Mets have recently played quite well; the Phillies a little less so. Which team will be hot for the final 19? Which team might go ice cold for the final 19? Maybe both? Maybe neither? I feel like it's a crap shoot, that the Phillies odds here are really not much off 50/50.

So, keep the faith. It's fun this time of year.

still out

1 wrote:still out

And still posting (is there some ironic humor here ? If so, sorry --- hard to tell).

mozartpc27 wrote:

1 wrote:still out

And still posting (is there some ironic humor here ? If so, sorry --- hard to tell).

i still like the team. i just know they aren't going to win.

By the end of this week the Phils will be in 1st place and will win the division by at least 2 games.

JFLNYC wrote:By the end of this week the Phils will be in 1st place and will win the division by at least 2 games.

There you go. Show a little backbone/strength of character everyone!

JOIN US

ALL WE WANT TO DO IS EAT YOUR BRAINS

JFLNYC wrote:By the end of this week the Phils will be in 1st place and will win the division by at least 2 games.

I want back out!!

LongDrive wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:By the end of this week the Phils will be in 1st place and will win the division by at least 2 games.

JFLNYC wrote:

LongDrive wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:By the end of this week the Phils will be in 1st place and will win the division by at least 2 games.