WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

He may not be up by 8. but let him just win the state by 1%...I'll take it....Biden has been consistently up there which is a good sign

threecount wrote:

WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

He may not be up by 8. but let him just win the state by 1%...I'll take it....Biden has been consistently up there which is a good sign

Biden's lead is 3% higher than HRC had in 2016 in national polls. In AZ specifically, Trump led in late polls by around 5%. (Trump won AZ by 3.5%, so in fact that's one state where Trump actually underperformed his polling.

It just seems like at times the numbers are so diluted that it almost becomes a negative for Biden. "Oh well he has it wrapped up".

Same thing happened with a lot of people that didn't like Hillary but hated Trump.

TenuredVulture wrote:

threecount wrote:

WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

He may not be up by 8. but let him just win the state by 1%...I'll take it....Biden has been consistently up there which is a good sign

Biden's lead is 3% higher than HRC had in 2016 in national polls. In AZ specifically, Trump led in late polls by around 5%. (Trump won AZ by 3.5%, so in fact that's one state where Trump actually underperformed his polling.

Yea and when you read deeper into today's poll, Biden is up 8% in Maricopa County(Phoenix area)...this is the largest county in the country that Trump won in 2016...

WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5832.html


?

Good. I am not as well informed as most of you and half of my family deleted me on facebook for making a joke about Trump. They added me back but I just want it to be over with. I want to throw up almost as soon as someone starts politics when I am at a bar or whatever.

CalvinBall wrote:

WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5832.html


?

Damn...those RCP polls were dead-on...

threecount wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

WilliamC wrote:

threecount wrote:Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.
Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race

Not doubting you but your polls are horrifyingly exactly the same as 4 years ago.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5832.html


?

Damn...those RCP polls were dead-on...

The two immediately following the debate had it tied and HRC up 2. Being up 8 is not the same as that is all my point was.

Also I think most pollsters have adjusted for undercounting white voters with no college degree in their methodology last time. Add that in and Biden is way ahead of where HRC was.

The big fear for a Biden loss at this point isn't Trump actually getting more votes or carrying more states-it's Republicans in the Justice Department, federal judiciary, and state legislatures actively stealing the election.

Exactly. After November 3 Trump will do the following:

1. Claim massive fraud and that he really won.
2. Activate Republican officials in key states to help manipulate the vote count as much as possible and, if possible, delay certification of electors so as to disrupt the Electoral College timeline.
3. Send teams of lawyers to key states to challenge results and mail-in ballots in particular with appeals, where necessary, to the SCOTUS.
4. Encourage his supporters to take to the streets to protest with violence dog whistles.
5. Continue to hammer away through Twitter, Fox News and other sympathetic media that he really won despite what the votes might say.

WilliamC wrote:My Republican uncle who I shall call Randall told me that new voter registration in PA is 55% Republican. He is full of shit but usually doesn't make shit up.

Maybe a lot of the marginal people who don't usually vote already registered with dems in 2018 mid-terms? I hope so.

Or maybe Russian bots getting ballots emailed to a russian server in Lititz?

i wouldn't be surprised if it was something like the latter. Not for the purpose of actually voting, but to be used as examples to cast doubt on the outcome.

I definitely think they will be planting some fraud examples to get people riled up.

One thing I think will help is the media finally seems to be doing a better job. They don't believe anything he says at this point.

Anyone else watching the Biden town hall on NBC?

Recording it and just about 10 minutes in.

I'm watching it. Think he is doing a solid job. Don't think he should be saying give police more money as he talks about how they have too much on their plates. Get that he means need to bring in other folks who specialize in non violent crime response but just not the right way to phrase it.

BigEd76 wrote:Anyone else watching the Biden town hall on NBC?

I'm watching it. Maybe I am missing something but I think Biden has been outstanding. He is really on top of his game tonight. Clear, concise, thoughtful answers. The townhall format is in his wheelhouse.

traderdave wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Anyone else watching the Biden town hall on NBC?

I'm watching it. Maybe I am missing something but I think Biden has been outstanding. He is really on top of his game tonight. Clear, concise, thoughtful answers. The townhall format is in his wheelhouse.

IT’S THE DRUUUUGGGGGZZZZ

Here’s the deal, it’s in fact Joe being Joe.

JFLNYC wrote:Here’s the deal, it’s in fact Joe being Joe.

Look.