Instead of stealing trump lawn signs people should be sticking Putin stickers on them

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

Ugh, that's what I did on 2016. I still feel some shame about it. Toomey appears to have few principles.

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

It's more common than you or I would expect I think. It will be more common this election as people can't vote for Trump but can vote for a more 'normal' republican.

Sad that tommy tuberville who appears to not know that the voting rights act exists, is almost guaranteed a seat.

Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

MoBettle wrote:Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

The good news is that Dems will be in a great position to take back the Senate in 2022 if they don't accomplish that task this year.

I imagine, given his age and power lust, Turtle will retire once the Dems have the majority.

Werthless wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

Ugh, that's what I did on 2016. I still feel some shame about it. Toomey appears to have few principles.

when doing advocacy work one year we met with a staffer of his in DC. she literally told us that they prefer to decide whether they are voting yes or no on a bill the day before the vote. so i would argue even further that he has no principles.

Just good business to make sure the check clears first.

CalvinBall wrote:

Werthless wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

Ugh, that's what I did on 2016. I still feel some shame about it. Toomey appears to have few principles.

when doing advocacy work one year we met with a staffer of his in DC. she literally told us that they prefer to decide whether they are voting yes or no on a bill the day before the vote. so i would argue even further that he has no principles.

Not any principles that I would endorse.

MoBettle wrote:Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

It's a much better spot for dems than republicans. Dems are only playing defense on really a seat they should never have anyway. Alabama is a republican seat that Doug Jones has because he was going up against a pedophile. The next one up is Michigan which...just isn't turning this year. Everything else is a D pickup opportunity (AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT). AZ is likely and will cancel out AL. NC and ME are D leans right now. IA and ME probably toss ups to Lean R. MT is a stretch but is tough to poll and Bullock is popular.

JUburton wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

It's a much better spot for dems than republicans. Dems are only playing defense on really a seat they should never have anyway. Alabama is a republican seat that Doug Jones has because he was going up against a pedophile. The next one up is Michigan which...just isn't turning this year. Everything else is a D pickup opportunity (AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT). AZ is likely and will cancel out AL. NC and ME are D leans right now. IA and ME probably toss ups to Lean R. MT is a stretch but is tough to poll and Bullock is popular.

Also CO, which is basically gone

Both Georgia seats are 100% in play too

Yeah, CO and AZ are the sure things for Ds I would think. The rest are hard because they are in red states (outside of ME) with R incumbents. They just have a good shot because there are SO MANY opportunities.

Can add GA, TX, KS, and AK to that list too. It is pretty wild how many seats Rs have to play varying degrees of actual defense on.

jerseyhoya wrote:

JUburton wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

It's a much better spot for dems than republicans. Dems are only playing defense on really a seat they should never have anyway. Alabama is a republican seat that Doug Jones has because he was going up against a pedophile. The next one up is Michigan which...just isn't turning this year. Everything else is a D pickup opportunity (AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT). AZ is likely and will cancel out AL. NC and ME are D leans right now. IA and ME probably toss ups to Lean R. MT is a stretch but is tough to poll and Bullock is popular.

Also CO, which is basically gone

Ah right I knew I was missing one. But really it's a very good map for 2020. You generally expect these candidates to be buoyed in a presidential year but that's maybe not the case with a president with a shit approval rating.

jerseyhoya wrote:Both Georgia seats are 100% in play too

Agree. With the stupid run-off it will always be hard. Also with Lieberman's son in the one race refusing to drop out, who knows if Warnock will even get to a run off.

JUburton wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Just seems like a more difficult map for democrats in the senate? They’re starting down and they’re gonna lose Alabama and there aren’t a lot of obvious pick ups.

The turn towards the GOP probably just means there was a bad poll in Maine or Iowa or something rather than some sort of national shift out of whack with the presidential race.

It's a much better spot for dems than republicans. Dems are only playing defense on really a seat they should never have anyway. Alabama is a republican seat that Doug Jones has because he was going up against a pedophile. The next one up is Michigan which...just isn't turning this year. Everything else is a D pickup opportunity (AZ, NC, ME, IA, MT). AZ is likely and will cancel out AL. NC and ME are D leans right now. IA and ME probably toss ups to Lean R. MT is a stretch but is tough to poll and Bullock is popular.

Oh for sure they can still get control (even the odds were talking about give them >50% chance) I was just laying out the structural reasons why the senate odds were dragging behind Biden’s. They’re starting behind and while there are pickup opportunities it’s not like they’re just gonna coast to most of those. Like if it was a 2022 map in this climate you could probably predict it much more confidently.

JUburton wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

It's more common than you or I would expect I think. It will be more common this election as people can't vote for Trump but can vote for a more 'normal' republican.

Sad that tommy tuberville who appears to not know that the voting rights act exists, is almost guaranteed a seat.

In 2016, besides promising me Hilary would win PA, 538 also promised me McGinty would beat Toomey.

I'm still aggravated.

wrong thread

Wolfgang622 wrote:

JUburton wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:Hopefully it's just lagging their Presidential forecast. After narrowing to 67:32 on August 31st it's back to 76:23, just off the 79:21 high.

I can envision split ballots (Biden for pres. but (R) down-ballot) to keep the "radical left" in check.

It's more common than you or I would expect I think. It will be more common this election as people can't vote for Trump but can vote for a more 'normal' republican.

Sad that tommy tuberville who appears to not know that the voting rights act exists, is almost guaranteed a seat.

In 2016, besides promising me Hilary would win PA, 538 also promised me McGinty would beat Toomey.

I'm still aggravated.

I don't think 538 promised you anything. I think they gave you the percentage/probability of an outcome.

I know you know the difference, but that logic to the extreme is where most of Trump's base sits. I hope that polling has gotten better since then.

saw earlier that the4re is another sexual assault claim on Trump. No big deal, right, just another day.

thephan wrote:saw earlier that the4re is another sexual assault claim on Trump. No big deal, right, just another day.

that's so 2016, maybe some collusion with the russians, maybe some shady tax returns... oh wait, think they've been used up to. hmmmm. getting tough to pull a new one out of the hat for an october surprise.

lesson of the day.... don't blow all your ammo shooting at fish in the lake. might need some for the grizzly waiting for you on the shore.