Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby swishnicholson » Wed Jun 24, 2020 00:01:48

CalvinBall wrote:I did not win. Frustrating experience in many ways. It was in the bag for the person who won before it even started. Truly, she could have said anything and would have won. I feel confident I have better messages than her let me read the bullet points on my resume snooze fests.

The zone leaders of the two largest zones in the district were actively campaigning for her. One sent out and email telling everyone to vote for her or else kind of thing.

I'm glad it's over but it is amazing how much weird group think there is. Sigh.


sorry to hear
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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jun 24, 2020 00:12:58

Cballs, I love to rag on you in this thread, but I am impressed that you took this step and my takeaways from this experience (based on knowledge from this thread and educated guesses) if I were you would be:

You did the right thing - you identified a potential opportunity and capitalized. You targeted the right audience with your pitch, and at the very least made an introduction/impression.

Literally nothing you could have done would have changed the outcome. So certainly no room for recriminations. People's minds were made up, and probably deals/discussions happened before you would have even had an inkling of the opportunity.

Think of people who you've met through this but didn't side with you as potential friends moving forward rather than current opponents. Not trying to sound like a motivational speaker, but politics are quick moving, transactional, and not a lot of room to hold any grudges. It's frustrating, but there's no upside.

Chin up. If you keep throwing your hat in the ring, you'll land something. You are in an enviable spot right now where there's a lot of turnover and you're politically on the right side of it.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Jun 24, 2020 00:30:00

jerseyhoya wrote:Cballs, I love to rag on you in this thread, but I am impressed that you took this step and my takeaways from this experience (based on knowledge from this thread and educated guesses) if I were you would be:

You did the right thing - you identified a potential opportunity and capitalized. You targeted the right audience with your pitch, and at the very least made an introduction/impression.

Literally nothing you could have done would have changed the outcome. So certainly no room for recriminations. People's minds were made up, and probably deals/discussions happened before you would have even had an inkling of the opportunity.

Think of people who you've met through this but didn't side with you as potential friends moving forward rather than current opponents. Not trying to sound like a motivational speaker, but politics are quick moving, transactional, and not a lot of room to hold any grudges. It's frustrating, but there's no upside.

Chin up. If you keep throwing your hat in the ring, you'll land something. You are in an enviable spot right now where there's a lot of turnover and you're politically on the right side of it.


Thanks pal. And you're absolutely right. Unfortunately there is this fringe group of folks in our county who are extremely online. Not sure they have jobs, truly. Think I let some of their negativity get to me a bit, which is the hardest part. They have no clue who I am. Don't live in the district but feel the need to bash everyone from their high horses with little actual insight into how legislation gets passed.

I got a few emails and texts from people who didn't vote for me saying I did a great job. So I will hang my hat on that. I did not think I'd be this frustrated with it as I expected to lose. But I'll work through the emotions, drink some beers and move on.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Jun 24, 2020 06:10:22

A 24 year old destroyed Trump endorsed candidate in NC-11 runoff.
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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Jun 24, 2020 06:14:10

threecount wrote:Prepare for a Biden Landslide(From National Journal)

Josh Kraushaar: “Right now, it looks more likely that Biden will win a landslide victory, picking up states uncontested by Democrats in recent elections, than it is that Trump can mount a miraculous turnaround in just over four months. Even as Trump tries to advance a law-and-order pitch amid growing violence and tumult in the nation’s cities, it’s unlikely to benefit the president because he’s the leader in charge. The chaos candidate is now the chaos president. Biden is the challenger pledging a return to normalcy.”

“Just look at the swing-state map: Biden is leading in every battleground state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, with the exception of North Carolina where the race is tied. Trump trails by 6 points in the electoral prize of Florida, where the president’s newfound willingness to meet with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro prompted a fierce backlash and quick White House retreat. He’s down 4 points in Arizona, a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1964. He’s not close to hitting even 45 percent of the vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin—the Midwestern states he flipped to win the presidency.”

“Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is airing ads in Iowa and Ohio, two states he won by near double-digit margins in 2016, as recent polls show Trump in precarious shape in both states.”


I absolute hate these articles. Afraid it will energize Trumpers and create complacency in Dems.
Drunk and stupid is no way to be remembered but it is an easy way to forget.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Grotewold » Wed Jun 24, 2020 06:53:03

The return to normalcy message will be very powerful imo

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby thephan » Wed Jun 24, 2020 07:06:44

Seems racist stuff here the biggest cheers in Trump world. Just wait till he gets going
yawn

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby pacino » Wed Jun 24, 2020 07:35:13

Uncle Milty wrote:A 24 year old destroyed Trump endorsed candidate in NC-11 runoff.

Don't worry. His platform sucks, too.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 07:47:57

PSUsarge wrote:
momadance wrote:@ddale8
Q: "Mr. President, at that rally when you said you asked your people to slow down testing, were you just kidding, or do you have a plan to slow down testing?"

Trump: "I don't kid."

With video:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1275438150119088130

Another perfect Biden ad clip, beautiful.


Imagine:



+

"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 07:51:34

CalvinBall wrote:I did not win. Frustrating experience in many ways. It was in the bag for the person who won before it even started. Truly, she could have said anything and would have won. I feel confident I have better messages than her let me read the bullet points on my resume snooze fests.

The zone leaders of the two largest zones in the district were actively campaigning for her. One sent out and email telling everyone to vote for her or else kind of thing.

I'm glad it's over but it is amazing how much weird group think there is. Sigh.


Sorry Cal. Most things in politics like that in my experience are dog and pony shows. When there is something serious at stake, there are few genuine "let the chips fall where they may" moments.

Jersey's advice is on point. Short memory and a willingness to keep at it will go a long way in the long run. You've introduced yourself; keep showing up, doing the things, being reliable, and when opportunities come, people will know you need a shot.
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 07:58:30

Uncle Milty wrote:
threecount wrote:Prepare for a Biden Landslide(From National Journal)

Josh Kraushaar: “Right now, it looks more likely that Biden will win a landslide victory, picking up states uncontested by Democrats in recent elections, than it is that Trump can mount a miraculous turnaround in just over four months. Even as Trump tries to advance a law-and-order pitch amid growing violence and tumult in the nation’s cities, it’s unlikely to benefit the president because he’s the leader in charge. The chaos candidate is now the chaos president. Biden is the challenger pledging a return to normalcy.”

“Just look at the swing-state map: Biden is leading in every battleground state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling averages, with the exception of North Carolina where the race is tied. Trump trails by 6 points in the electoral prize of Florida, where the president’s newfound willingness to meet with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro prompted a fierce backlash and quick White House retreat. He’s down 4 points in Arizona, a state that has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1964. He’s not close to hitting even 45 percent of the vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin—the Midwestern states he flipped to win the presidency.”

“Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is airing ads in Iowa and Ohio, two states he won by near double-digit margins in 2016, as recent polls show Trump in precarious shape in both states.”


I absolute hate these articles. Afraid it will energize Trumpers and create complacency in Dems.


They make me nervous too. So did this headline from fivethirtyeight yesterday:

What Economists Fear Most During This Recovery

It suggests that the Recovery is both presumed and already underway.

Good for the country in one sense, but to the extent that economic recovery of any significance all but assures Trump's re-election, also bad for the country.
"I'm in a bar with the games sound turned off and that Cespedes home run still sounded like inevitability."

-swish

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby CalvinBall » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:45:08

A group in Madison, WI knocked down a statue commemorating women's suffrage, another of an abolitionist, and then beat up a State Senator.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby CFP » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:53:43

I think there are a few of us who believe NYT/Siena is the best polling out there:

Biden 50%
Trump 36%

Trump Favorability:
40% Favorable
56% Unfavorable

Biden Favorability:
52% Favorable
42% Unfavorable

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby CalvinBall » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:54:53

Long way to go, outlier perhaps but the mid 30s is bonkers. Wonder what the other 14 percent of people want.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:00:49

NYT is the best going, and Nate Cohn's transparency in his methodology is phenomenal.

That said, that's way too many undecideds. Been seeing around 6-8%. I wonder if it will be lower in the battleground state polls they're releasing tomorrow, which will be places that have had more TV spending and other attention to the race.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby Uncle Milty » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:02:38

CalvinBall wrote:Long way to go, outlier perhaps but the mid 30s is bonkers. Wonder what the other 14 percent of people want.

Obviously they're Trump voters who won't admit it so it's basically a tie.
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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby JUburton » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:03:50

jerseyhoya wrote:NYT is the best going, and Nate Cohn's transparency in his methodology is phenomenal.

That said, that's way too many undecideds. Been seeing around 6-8%. I wonder if it will be lower in the battleground state polls they're releasing tomorrow, which will be places that have had more TV spending and other attention to the race.
That 14% includes 9% undecided, 2% wouldn't vote, and 3% other candidate.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ ... a/full.pdf
Last edited by JUburton on Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:06:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby Bucky » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:06:19

CalvinBall wrote:A group in Madison, WI knocked down a statue commemorating women's suffrage, another of an abolitionist, and then beat up a State Senator.


that should make you feel at least a little better about not getting the nomination

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby Bill McNeal » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:09:12

This has no bearing on anything, but I felt like you need to see it

https://twitter.com/thistallawkgirl/sta ... 58720?s=20
man I drew all these penises for nothing - housh

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Re: Politics Thread: Dad, Pull Over! I have to VP!

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:10:24

JUburton wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:NYT is the best going, and Nate Cohn's transparency in his methodology is phenomenal.

That said, that's way too many undecideds. Been seeing around 6-8%. I wonder if it will be lower in the battleground state polls they're releasing tomorrow, which will be places that have had more TV spending and other attention to the race.
That 14% includes 9% undecided, 2% wouldn't vote, and 3% other candidate.

I should probably have clicked through.

9% undecided is in line then. Looking at the tabs it's not clear to me if "Another Candidate" was a read option or volunteered. If the latter, that's fine. I don't love a read option of a generic other candidate, though 3% isn't too high.

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