You’re right, JH, but she was playing with such a weak hand it was worth a try.

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Also, if Pelosi just sent them on this wouldn't have even been a conversation regardless how slim it still is.

wHaT iS ShE doINg?!?

Of course it would have been a conversation. Jesus

It just would have been a conversation that would have had to happen sooner. Because the trial would have started last week instead of next week. We'll get to discuss it at the end of January now instead of the middle of it.

The lone tangible impact Pelosi holding back sending impeachment for a week is making sure all the Dem senators running for President are stuck in DC for the 2-3 weeks leading up to Iowa.

She's held it back for nearly a month, not a week.

Trial would've started the week after New Year's when Congress got back into session. Now it will likely start Tuesday after MLK Day. Last week instead of next week. And it will start with the same rules it would have started with on the 6th because she never had any leverage or chance of changing anything with her aimless plan. And the same cross pressures will exist for moderate or safe from primary challenge or retiring GOP members once the initial portion was over.

But it gave more time for additional information to come out about Deutsch Bank and the other emails that surfaced, things that should be entered into evidence when the Senate trial takes place. It also allowed time for a conversation to happen and allowed more people to know what is happening who would have otherwise missed it in the midst of the holidays. This is about November, not January or February. There was never any chance the GOP was not going to bow to their leader no matter what he did, but Pelosi has a responsibility to run an opposition party and to signal to her supporters that she's trying and to help set up the talking points for the election.

CalvinBall wrote:Think you're underestimating how it hanging out there a few extra weeks allowed people to talk about it more as opposed to going to trial and having it over already

Also, Bolton in the interim said he would testify. Probably doesn't happen if the trial had ended already.

and all those damning emails surfaced, which now the dems will be able to push as evidence in the senate trial and the GOP will have to go on record as not wanting it entered into evidence.

People notice and care less if you pull a band aid off quickly. Do it slowly and it makes some at least a bit uncomfortable.

JHs prognostication has had some significant misses despite how confident and smarmy he writes them all.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

Augustus wrote:While I do think Trump is a favorite against the field, I don't think it's quite as dire as you say...

Good post, Augustus. You should post more! Maybe keep my fatalistic impulses in check.

I would also add that the tariffs are unpopular and have caused real harm to people in his base.

I'm more concerned about stuff he's going to pull with voter suppression and what the russians might do. They were in our servers last time and in a position to change results. Even if they don't do it themselves, does anyone here believe people in Trump's orbit aren't capable to using that russian knowledge to set up something in another country to attack the servers again? They gutted the money that was supposed to help protect the integrity of the election for a reason and it's not because they believe in small government.

The more I read and look at the numbers, I think it might come down to Wisconsin and there have been some very unfavorable court rulings there about taking voters off the rolls right before the election.

I think it's going to be a bareknuckle fight and the dems better come prepared for that fact.

CalvinBall wrote:Think you're underestimating how it hanging out there a few extra weeks allowed people to talk about it more as opposed to going to trial and having it over already

Also, Bolton in the interim said he would testify. Probably doesn't happen if the trial had ended already.

It faded from the news cycle over Christmas/New Years and has largely been a distant story in the early part of this year overshadowed by Iran and the Dem primary and 100 other things. It will pick back up once the trial starts.

Bolton said he would testify because the court ruled the lawsuit he was connected to was moot after the House passed impeachment, which would have happened with or without Pelosi's delay. His announcement came the day the trial otherwise would have started. It would not have already finished. Would've been a hell of an opening day though.

And now the president is calling for a dismissal of the charges. They're feeling pressure that is real that they were not feeling two weeks ago if you believe that Trump signals most everything via tweet.

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Think you're underestimating how it hanging out there a few extra weeks allowed people to talk about it more as opposed to going to trial and having it over already

Also, Bolton in the interim said he would testify. Probably doesn't happen if the trial had ended already.

It faded from the news cycle over Christmas/New Years and has largely been a distant story in the early part of this year overshadowed by Iran and the Dem primary and 100 other things. It will pick back up once the trial starts.

Bolton said he would testify because the court ruled the lawsuit he was connected to was moot after the House passed impeachment, which would have happened with or without Pelosi's delay. His announcement came the day the trial otherwise would have started. It would not have already finished. Would've been a hell of an opening day though.

Damn pelosi to hell for not knowing Iran would happen and suck some/most of the oxygen out of the impeachment story for the week the emails and Deutsch Bank stuff came out.

When fighting authoritarians, you do not lay back for a moment, you attack, attack, attack. Otherwise, they will run the show and drive the narrative. Pelosi was driving the narrative and it had an effect on Trump. His whining made him look weak, and that stuff matters. And, more importantly, new information came out that would have been missed. The Dems now have quality new evidence that they can say should be added to the evidence and the weak, helpless GOP senators, who can't stand up to the man-child in the WH, will have to go on record as obstructing that new evidence.

Ole Rand looks forward to calling Hunter Biden.

Bernie Twitter is fire tonight. #RefundWarren

If this was a leak by Elizabeth Warren’s camp it was a political misstep. Yes, she needs to overcome Bernie somehow, but this ain’t it. I really like her too, she’s probably my preferred candidate in a vacuum.

yeh, I think she's my first choice. I like her more than sanders and I think she has a slightly better chance than him in a general election. She would destroy Trump in a debate while I'm not sure how sanders will perform. I'm not even sure Trump will agree to debate because I honestly think he's deteriorating cognitively. Fast. I'm not sure how he can get out of debating, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to find a way. He's redefining presidenting, you know.

Uncle Milty wrote:Bernie should not be punished for telling her the truth

that's certainly the most amazing reaction out of all of this

in any event, i think this is being vastly overrated as far as importance. the amount of umbrage the Bernie people are taking with this is a little weird when they hired David Sirota and Briahna Joy Gray as their press people; they have a clear history of distortions and dirty play.

I'm voting Sanders currently and will in April if he's ahead but this is all fairly silly. Just two days ago they were defending attacking Biden; now they take offense to Warren responding to this report. it just seems selective.

also, it's certainly possible both of them are correct; Sanders says something that Warren interprets a different way than Sanders intended. this has happened throughout history a million times. they are pretty obviously holding it unless Sanders whipped support against her; having a volunteer script highlight perceived negative aspects of Warren's base is a pretty core critique of the 'not me, us' idea of campaigning. saying she can't fire up new people is signaling that she's just another party elite.

anyway, this is is all very mild stuff. we had republicans calling each other's dicks small ad alleging their dads killed JKF last go around and we had Clinton intimating that Obama might get shot back in 2008.

momadance wrote:Ole Rand looks forward to calling Hunter Biden.

my bang-bang reaction to this was:

1) That is so stupid since he has nothing to do with the charges to be put before congress

2) Since he took a swipe at Don the other day he needs to find someway to crawl back into his good graces

Another train load of coal being blocked in Kentucky because the miners say that they have not been paid. #WeLoveOurMiner

slugsrbad wrote:If this was a leak by Elizabeth Warren’s camp it was a political misstep. Yes, she needs to overcome Bernie somehow, but this ain’t it. I really like her too, she’s probably my preferred candidate in a vacuum.

Definitely my first choice but this was right out of the Hillary playbook, and you should never, ever do anything out of that playbook.

thephan wrote:Another train load of coal being blocked in Kentucky because the miners say that they have not been paid. #WeLoveOurMiner

I know Iowa is coming up, but if I were a Democrat running for President, I'd make an appearance.

Trump flirted with bumping off a US ambassador.

This is real life folks:

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/12 ... 1594780674

06hawkalum wrote:Trump flirted with bumping off a US ambassador.

This is real life folks:

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/12 ... 1594780674

Holy shit. Is this from Parnas's phone?

The house released Parnas's hand written notes from the Ritz Vienna stationary where Rudy bragged about meetings. Holy shit.