The Report That Changed The World (or not) - Politics Thread

by **Slowhand** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 17:14:17

I saw “President Trump expected to resign”

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 17:21:20

Well oiled machine of an administration

by **thephan** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 18:37:28

He has to get a tough guy in there. Some bully man. Who will it be? Who might be the interim don't care nothing except orchestrating a reign of fear to keep this over filled country from popping like a filled up tick?

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 21:22:51

Maybe he can get Michael Cohen on a work release basis.

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 08:39:56

I like Elizabeth Warren a lot more than most but early polls haven’t been kind. It’s April though so while polls may be informative they’re not dispositive.

by **traderdave** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 09:12:29

thephan wrote:He has to get a tough guy in there. Some bully man. Who will it be? Who might be the interim don't care nothing except orchestrating a reign of fear to keep this over filled country from popping like a filled up tick?

He could improve government efficiency by just putting Stephen Miller in there to cut out the middle man/woman.

by **traderdave** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 09:39:31

President Obama:

“One of the things I do worry about sometimes among progressives in the United States ... is a certain kind of rigidity where we say, ‘I’m sorry, this is how it’s going to be,’ and then we start sometimes creating what’s called a circular firing squad where you start shooting at your allies because one of them is straying from purity on the issues, and when that happens, typically the overall effort and movement weakens,” he told the audience.

I have experienced this first-hand and believe this to be WIDELY true of the self-identified progressives in my town. Their attitude is very much "my way or the highway". It is one of the reasons why, though I certainly agree with a number of "progressive" policy positions, I would not identify as a progressive.

by **JUburton** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 09:45:11

Alternatively, those people are important and push the overton window to the left. M4A is almost a default position for democratic hopefuls now.

by **JFLNYC** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 10:05:53

Overton is an unincorporated town located in Clark County, Nevada. The town is on the north end of Lake Mead. The town is home to Perkins Field airport and Echo Bay Airport.

I was not able to push the window to the left.

by **Phred** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:03:32

Secret Service Director Randolph "Tex" Alles fired.

by **traderdave** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:27:16

"There is a near-systematic purge happening at the nation's second-largest national security agency," one senior administration official says. United States Citizenship and Immigration Services director Francis Cissna and Office of the General Counsel's John Mitnick are expected to be gone soon, and the White House is eyeing others to be removed. The President in recent weeks empowered Stephen Miller to lead the administration's border policies "and he's executing his plan" with what amounts to a wholesale decapitation or the Department of Homeland Security leadership, the official says.

Well, at least we don't have to go on pretending that a white supremacist isn't running things.

by **JUburton** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:29:37

You thought they were cruel before? Trump is convinced the only way he can win is on immigration and he's further convinced that the way to do that is through the cruelest policies possible. And he will find people who will implement them.

by **TenuredVulture** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:45:14

Firing a bunch of people at DHS just before hurricane season gets going. Putting Stephen Miller in charge. What could go wrong? Since only a fool would work for this administration, I wonder if the administration even has people prepared to fill these vacancies.

by **swishnicholson** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:49:52

JUburton wrote:Alternatively, those people are important and push the overton window to the left. M4A is almost a default position for democratic hopefuls now.

The use of obscure abbreviations is the reason why, though I certainly agree with a number of "progressive" policy positions, I would not identify as a progressive.

by **traderdave** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 14:52:17

swishnicholson wrote:
JUburton wrote:Alternatively, those people are important and push the overton window to the left. M4A is almost a default position for democratic hopefuls now.

The use of obscure abbreviations is the reason why, though I certainly agree with a number of "progressive" policy positions, I would not identify as a progressive.

I was going to post the same thing. :lol:

Could also be a reason they wouldn't let me into the club.

by **JUburton** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 15:04:18

Get with it, my dudes, errr, comrades.

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 16:32:50

Warren polling at 14% in her home state behind Bernie and Biden.

That's bad news for that campaign. She will be lucky to make it to Iowa, but I hope she stays in for as long as possible. People and $$$ will start going elsewhere in a hurry.

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 16:46:23

Augustus wrote:The rise of self identifying independents has much more to do with the institutional weaknesses of the parties than it does any kind of migration toward the middle of the political spectrum. Most independents consistently vote one way or the other. Here's some good data from Pew on the subject: https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/ I think your "true independents" remain mostly low information voters.

Not to go all Chuck Schumer on everybody, but let's take a white, male suburban dad in Chester County or Waukesha County or Oakland County. Old Gen-Xer/youngish Boomer. He makes a six figure salary and considers himself an "independent." Maybe he voted Obama once or twice and he voted Trump in 2016. If the economy holds steady, why wouldn't he vote Trump again? He already knew who Trump was the first time. I know JH mentioned the polling data on Biden vs. Trump, but I'm convinced that the "shy Trumper" effect very much exists.

Biden is wildly preferable to Trump, but his limitations and liabilities are very real and I think he'd make a pretty lousy president. If I'm going to take on an old guy who's incapable of articulating policy, has a history of lousy votes, has questionable interactions with women, has run two failed campaigns for president, displays limited imagination and intellectual ability, and whose chief qualification seems to be the memes about him and Obama being friends, it should be for a better reason than some aging white people might vote for him.

The article is interesting. There is also a spectrum on the "Lean D" or "Lean R". Even if most are really Ds and Rs and will vote that way, I still believe there are a substantial number of "I could go either way depending on the candidate" Independents who dislike Trump and maybe like the economy. Of the 37%, that could be 10%? 15? Either of those numbers would be substantial: a higher percentage of the eligible 2020 voting electorate than "26 and under" or African-Americans. So, its not insignificant.

I'd very interested in seeing that data by state for PA, Wis, Mich, Min, VA, NM, Col, and Nev. I have no sense of the number of self-identifying independents there.

by **TenuredVulture** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 16:52:53

Especially for Dems, early poll results aren't great predictors of success:

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.c ... g-part-ii/

More interesting, when the Dems did nominate an early front runner (someone polling first or second and a non-incumbent), that person typically went on to lose the general election. (Mondale, Gore, Kerry, H. Clinton but Obama is an exception though at this point he was far behind HRC.) On the other hand, a Democrat who polls in the single digits at this point but manages to get the nomination have good track records (both Carter and Clinton were at less than 2% this point). There's a face validity argument here--a candidate who can prevail despite a lack of institutional support and all that goes with it is going to have serious political skills and be a formidable campaigner.

My take away from this is that if you care about electability, you shouldn't listen to establishment Democrats, and you should also ignore the polls.

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Apr 08, 2019 17:05:43

Maybe. I’m not sure historical comparisons are relevant predictors or anything anymore. The 2020 election cycle started the night Hilary lost. This whole process has been stretched out already in way I can never recall happening. Of course things can change and someone like Kamala could catch fire (love her) or Buttegig could rise (like him, in no way qualified for the job, although I realize that’s not a thing that matters any more).

But regardless of 538, a poll that puts you at 14 percent in your home state is devastating. You aren’t coming back from that. This isn’t about name recognition for her

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