Uncle Milty wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Feel like a lot of you aren't paying half attention to what's happening with the Dem candidates

?

For example, someone just posted that Warren is going to win the presidency

Trent Steele wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Feel like a lot of you aren't paying half attention to what's happening with the Dem candidates

Depends what echo chamber you live in

Biden has tried a few times to become president. It didn't work. He has a 120 year public service records. That's not helpful in presidential elections these days.

CalvinBall wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Feel like a lot of you aren't paying half attention to what's happening with the Dem candidates

Depends what echo chamber you live in

Biden has tried a few times to become president. It didn't work. He has a 120 year public service records. That's not helpful in presidential elections these days.

People who vote in the Midwest love him. That’s all that matters

Uncle Milty wrote:Still think Biden/Beto or Beto/Biden wins easily.

Woman on ticket is mandatory

I obviously have a very different view on these matters than most of the board, but leading with policy and a real consensus is going to win this primary. That ain't Biden. Beto should stay in Texas for the good of himself and the party.

If Bernie runs, he probably wins. He's set himself up to run and win. Now it's just up to him if he wants to. If he doesn't, Warren immediately steps in. I could see Harris doing it. Those are the top three I see. The rest, I either don't think they should run or don't think they actually have the people on the ground to actually do it.

Trent Steele wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Feel like a lot of you aren't paying half attention to what's happening with the Dem candidates

Depends what echo chamber you live in

Biden has tried a few times to become president. It didn't work. He has a 120 year public service records. That's not helpful in presidential elections these days.

People who vote in the Midwest love him. That’s all that matters

I hear ya.

Just think it's a tough road for him. He gets a lot of positive press and effectively has done very little for ten years as far as having to vote on something.

He still has a *ton* of baggage and once just a bit of light is shone on that again it won't be good for him.

pacino wrote:I obviously have a very different view on these matters than most of the board, but leading with policy and a real consensus is going to win this primary. That ain't Biden. Beto should stay in Texas for the good of himself and the party.

If Bernie runs, he probably wins. He's set himself up to run and win. Now it's just up to him if he wants to. If he doesn't, Warren immediately steps in. I could see Harris doing it. Those are the top three I see. The rest, I either don't think they should run or don't think they actually have the people on the ground to actually do it.

Beto raised a billion dollars and had suburban moms in Virgina Beto signs in their yards and college kids in Wisconsin wearing his t-shirts.

Then lit that money on fire and lost to Ted Cruz while running on fairly vague policy ideas that won't translate to a primary in the early states. This is going to be a full primary and he should sit out of it.

Stay in Texas and build an operation while you (Beto) refine yourself and help other candidates.

Still think Booker has the best chance. Dem turnout can't get any lower from 2016. Bringing up African American vote would have sealed it in all of the areas that HRC lost. No Super Predator type comments to get trolled on by Russia

Harris

With the caveat that I've never been more wrong about anything in my life than assessing how the presidential race would go in 2016, here are my thoughts reading the past page or two.

1) No Dem is unelectable. If you learned one lesson from 2016, it should be any major party nominee has a realistic shot at being president.

2) The likability, popularity, policy positions, race, gender, etc. of the individual nominated by the Democratic Party will have less of an impact on the outcome of which party wins in 2020 than it did in 2016. Beyond being unpopular, Hillary had to contend with the fact that she was the de facto incumbent, which manifested itself in voters who viewed both Trump and Hillary unfavorably voting for Trump by a wide margin. The 2020 election is going to be first and foremost about Trump. If the economy stays good and Trump survives Mueller and behaves like an adult for the two weeks before the election, he may be a solid favorite regardless of who the Dems run. If he keeps taking on water and the economy cools, he's going to have a very difficult time of winning regardless of who the Dems run.

3) Some people are more electable than other people. I think TV is right that party leader types may not be the best judge of who has the magical electability pixie dust and who doesn't, but that doesn't mean it isn't real. We did some stuff earlier this month in a few key swing states and Biden was up 11% on Trump aggregated while Warren was only up 1%. Some of that is down to name ID, and I also think Biden will be less popular once he becomes a candidate again rather than the out of the fray elder statesman role he's currently in, but it sure seems right now of the well known candidates (him, Sanders, Warren) he is best positioned to beat Trump. Harder to know how many of the 2nd and 3rd tier types will do until they join the fray both to see how they handle the national spotlight and to get their recognition with voters high enough that people have meaningful opinions.

4) No one is voting for another year, and most Dem voters (as opposed to people like ourselves who spend far too much time online or otherwise following politics) aren't going to engage with the race for a while and tons will change over the course of 2019.

5) If Trump isn't the GOP nominee, throw out most of what I just wrote though #1 should hold. Depending on why he isn't the GOP nominee and who is the GOP nominee, different Democrats might be better positioned to win than those who would be in best shape to beat Trump.

I do hope Trump faces a primary challenge. That would be fun.

Cory Booker is too tied to Wall Street and the pharmaceutical industry I think to have a real chance to win the Dem nomination. I also think his actual achievements are rather thin. This applies also to Beto.

This is going to sound dumb, but I actually think a lot of Biden's popularity has to do with the memes circulating during the transition than with the actual person.

Red States vote red.

No Dem evokes more hatred than Hilary

Warren first has to beat Bernie and Biden.

I am a Bernie supporter planning to vote for warren

I'd be surprised if Warren makes it to the PA primary

Grotewold wrote:Harris

I am interested in how she would do in the debates. I assume very well.

She’d cook em

Who is Harris?

Never mind. I found her on Google. She might be the answer. I think she'll be my initial favorite.

Crowded field with no obvious stand out. Jersey’s analysis dovetails nicely with what I would have said in my totally unprofessional and unscientific way. One thing about Biden, TV, that is real and not meme-based: he is good and convincing on camera at, for lack of a better term, convincing, incredulous “scoffing” - and to beat Trump I think you need that. Trump is a bully who has a talent for modern politics in that he knows how to put together pithy little statements and then mock any attempt to undermine him, no matter how rational, as liberal whining.

Joe Biden doesn’t whine and doesn’t come across as weak or whining.

Not sure he could get out of a primary though. Age, Anita hill, etc.