JUburton wrote:everybody dont forget to get on the SorosbusTM down to ga-06 and vote.

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

thephan wrote:From a Washington Post story about gerrymandering, the graphic below is exceptional. The big news of the article is that the SC is going to take up a case about gerrymandering.

analysis suggests the GOP won between 25 and 37 extra seats in the 2012 election because of its redistricting advantage

Read it for yourself

Not surprising since it was an actual implemented plan in 2010 to win as many state seats as they could with gobs of money and then redistrict everything to install house control for a decade.

I posted a clip from the Maddow show from a few years ago before on how they did it. She actually interviewed one of the guys who helped plan it.

The vote/seats efficiency thing is not a useful proxy for partisan gerrymandering and the paper says as much. The GOP advantage in winning more seats than votes would suggest was a combination of benefiting from partisan gerrymandering, nonpartisan gerrymandering, political geography, incumbency advantages, and the vagaries of individual campaigns. Would guess partisan gerrymandering is a third of the edge there at best. Which isn't to say it's irrelevant, but it's overrated.

Anyway, replying because it is precious to say it's not surprising the GOP has this advantage since they tried to win states in 2010! and then redistrict things afterwards! As if the Democrats did not have similar actual plans in 2010. And both parties in 2000. This is in large part what political parties exist to do. The GOP benefited from a wave election in 2010. They got to draw the lines in a bunch of key states. Democrats might win a bunch of statehouses next year in an anti Trump wave and control redistricting in them. There will probably even be TV clips talking about how they tried very hard to win the races they won.

JUburton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

thephan wrote:From a Washington Post story about gerrymandering, the graphic below is exceptional. The big news of the article is that the SC is going to take up a case about gerrymandering.

analysis suggests the GOP won between 25 and 37 extra seats in the 2012 election because of its redistricting advantage

Read it for yourself

Not surprising since it was an actual implemented plan in 2010 to win as many state seats as they could with gobs of money and then redistrict everything to install house control for a decade.

I posted a clip from the Maddow show from a few years ago before on how they did it. She actually interviewed one of the guys who helped plan it.

The vote/seats efficiency thing is not a useful proxy for partisan gerrymandering and the paper says as much. The GOP advantage in winning more seats than votes would suggest was a combination of benefiting from partisan gerrymandering, nonpartisan gerrymandering, political geography, incumbency advantages, and the vagaries of individual campaigns. Would guess partisan gerrymandering is a third of the edge there at best. Which isn't to say it's irrelevant, but it's overrated.

Anyway, replying because it is precious to say it's not surprising the GOP has this advantage since they tried to win states in 2010! and then redistrict things afterwards! As if the Democrats did not have similar actual plans in 2010. And both parties in 2000. This is in large part what political parties exist to do. The GOP benefited from a wave election in 2010. They got to draw the lines in a bunch of key states. Democrats might win a bunch of statehouses next year in an anti Trump wave and control redistricting in them. There will probably even be TV clips talking about how they tried very hard to win the races they won.

On the troubling side, there is clear evidence that aggressive gerrymandering is distorting the nation’s congressional maps, resulting in both large and remarkably durable levels of partisan bias. The rise of extreme gerrymandering, enabled by more accurate political data and better map-drawing software, seems poised to continue if left unchecked, allowing parties to manipulate maps to lock in a guaranteed artificial advantage for themselves. The threat to democracy is both real and alarming.

this conclusion seems relatively clear to me. it just happens the GOP won more in 2010 and used it more effectively. i'm all for a nonpartisan solution to end it on both sides.

slugsrbad wrote:Bruce Bond, a radio host in central PA had to resign after management told him to stop criticizing President Trump. The station is 92.1 WTPA-FM which seems to be based out of Ephrata. He's apparently invoked controversy before per a pennlive article in 2013 including serving 2 years in prison for his involvement in a forged-check scheme.

slugsrbad wrote:ICE believes the attacker in the Muslim teen attack was an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador. There is no confirmation of this, as far as I can see.

thephan wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:ICE believes the attacker in the Muslim teen attack was an undocumented immigrant from El Salvador. There is no confirmation of this, as far as I can see.

The kidnapping/assault/murder is now reported as a road rage incident. The road that the kids, and apparently there were a lot of them, has a bike lane, but the area that things went down is where it ends/before it. It also answers my question about 'why Fairfax' as that road is the border between FFxCo and Loudoun. Sadly it sounds like the victim was simply the easiest for the accused murder to catch up with. All of this is somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 miles from the mosque, which explains some of the response lag, not that this road would be heavily patrolled.

As far as status, it was also reported that he emigrated from El Salvador 4 or 5 years ago, and that he lives within 5 miles of the kidnapping and murder sites. His extended family lives there as well.

slugsrbad wrote:Bruce Bond, a radio host in central PA had to resign after management told him to stop criticizing President Trump. The station is 92.1 WTPA-FM which seems to be based out of Ephrata.

Central PA Radio Legend Bruce Bond hosts the "Bruce Bond Late Afternoon show....Saturday Morning" On 92.1 WTPA.

Tune in Bruce each Saturday morning from 9am - 12noon His show features special guests, and engaging and interesting conversations on a variety of topics. Bruce has a long history of being one of the most talked about personalities in local radio. And now you can hear him Saturdays on 92.1 WTPA.

drsmooth wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The vote/seats efficiency thing is not a useful proxy for partisan gerrymandering and the paper says as much. The GOP advantage in winning more seats than votes would suggest was a combination of benefiting from partisan gerrymandering, nonpartisan gerrymandering, political geography, incumbency advantages, and the vagaries of individual campaigns. Would guess partisan gerrymandering is a third of the edge there at best. Which isn't to say it's irrelevant, but it's overrated.

Anyway, replying because it is precious to say it's not surprising the GOP has this advantage since they tried to win states in 2010! and then redistrict things afterwards! As if the Democrats did not have similar actual plans in 2010. And both parties in 2000. This is in large part what political parties exist to do. The GOP benefited from a wave election in 2010. They got to draw the lines in a bunch of key states. Democrats might win a bunch of statehouses next year in an anti Trump wave and control redistricting in them. There will probably even be TV clips talking about how they tried very hard to win the races they won.

So we can put you down as "pro gerrymandering" then.

Seems like an interesting question. It seems stupid to permit states to effectively decide for themselves how the manage the way their citizenry selects representatives to the federal government. And in fact they aren't permitted to do odious things that effectively tilt selection processes based on race, for example.

But there's no one right way to draw boundaries, eliminating politics from the process isn't possible, and the typical form of a court's ruling - "we aren't telling you how to do it, but you can't do it XYZ way" - seems likely only to create - or expand? - a "redistricting lobbying" industry.

So good, on balance, for your career prospects?

Meanwhile Iran's military said Sunday that it has launched several medium range ballistic missiles into eastern Syria, targeting ISIS fighters in retaliation for twin attacks that rocked Tehran on June 7.
The strikes are the first time Iran has fired missiles at another country in three decades and represent a major escalation of Iran's role in the war in Syria.

Let's Not Get Carried Away - David Brooks, New York Times

pacino wrote:

pacino wrote:

pacino wrote:I'm giving everyone homework here: https://www.trumpcareten.org/

Call; if you're in one of these states it's especially important. Thank Casey; scold Toomey, give your story, etc. Have a reason to call, and call.

do it again!

*cough*

slugsrbad wrote:I can't easily link it from work, but Randy Bryce's ad announcing his run against Paul Ryan is pretty damn good. It's simple and powerful.