The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??

cartersDad26 wrote:The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??

They do have about 10 videos of Damon's crap in the 9th, however. Shouldn't that do it?

So I posted what I wrote in this thread, more or less, on a friend's facebook wall because several of his statuses were gloating about how the Yankees aren't the Rays and how game one is a distant memory. Here is what he wrote:

the luck card? so you re saying the phils werent the better team than the rays or the dodgers the last year? that it was a lucky pedro feliz hit in the clincher last year? or rollins' game 4 game winning 2 run hit was luck? no the, phils were the best team last year and better than them both.

the world series is the grand stage where great players go head to head and its about who is making plays and who isnt,... Read More
whether its good pitching or consistent and timely hitting. sabathia hasnt made his best pitches against utley, and utley has taken advantage. that's what its about, not luck.

and the lovable argument, its pretty biased to say the least being the fan of the team.

cliff lee can't pitch every night.. and even if he no hits the yankees and wins 9-0, games 3 & 4 were pivotal and we took em

What say you?

what

i edited that whole post pretty poorly. it is fixed now and hopefully makes a bit more sense.

I can't stand the "luck of playing the Rays" argument because last year nobody was giving the Phils a shot of winning it. Can't have it both ways.

i think its luck that the yankee's bloops are falling and the phillies hard hit balls are finding outfielders.

"baseball is a funny game"

The luck argument has run dry with me. I have heard the Philadelphia version of it as 'magical alignment' in 2008. If the team were lucky in '08, they would not be in the series again. So put that in the box.

I would say that people should be more amazed with the talent of this Phillies team with out a predictable closer, with Hamels having a down year, with Rollins not having a great offensive season (or be more amazed that he continues to hit lead off), with the relief corps has been riddled with injuries, that Brett Myers left a big hole in the starting rotation and that JA Happ has pitched well enough for serious consideration as the NL ROY. The question should be, to those who believe in luck, how did the Phillies win so many games?

I will admit that Ibanez carrying the team in early spring was a pleasant surprise, and the late addition of Lee is very gratifying, but this all goes to good teams finding ways to win, and not being lucky.

BTW - The Phils not caving to CC and his lesser god reputation should show just how legitimate the team is. For that matter, line up the teams that have unhittable pitcher that they have hit. I think Rivera is the only one left. I will take the best for last, especially since he should be feeling a little tired about now.

I get the anti-luck argument, but if you, as MattS argues (and I'm pretty close to persuaded) that babip is largely luck. So, if we define lucky as having a high babip, I would guess we'll find that Yakees have been lucky this series.

i'd love to see the line drive rate in the series compared to the two teams.

this was a great comment on fangraphs:

The real story here is just that he gave up 5 hits on 15 balls in play, and if you were watching, you know that they were mostly bloops and grounders and hardly any line drives. Five grounders went for two hits, and none went for double plays.

grounder (infield single)
line drive (double)
flyball (sac-fly)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (out)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (infield single, runner to 2B)
bloop (single)
bloop (single)
flyball (out)
flyball (out)
grounder (out)
grounder (out)

Seven strikeouts, two walks, lots of bad contact induced. In truth, Blanton pitched very well last night and arguably better than Sabathia.

TenuredVulture wrote:I get the anti-luck argument, but if you, as MattS argues (and I'm pretty close to persuaded) that babip is largely luck. So, if we define lucky as having a high babip, I would guess we'll find that Yakees have been lucky this series.

pitcher babip is almost entirely luck, but hitter babip is only partly luck, and team defense is only somewhat luck. however, in a short series almost all of everything is luck. the team's skill levels dictate that any game has a 55% chance of going to the favorite. that every game is won 100% or 0% of the time involves luck, either 45% for the favorites or 55% for the underdogs.

yesterday, the yankees hit 2 line drives and barely any balls past the outfielders in the first 8 innings. those 4 runs were largely luck. falling bloops, twenty hoppers, and infield hits.

when you talk about luck in general, any one game is almost all luck, but over the course of a season, a lot of that luck is minimized. babip luck for pitchers takes a decade to shine through (and then removing defense is even hard) and for hitters, it takes a few years too. i'm pretty good at looking at hitters' stats and telling you what their babip should be because i've done a lot of research on breaking it down by batted ball types.

The Marty Show wrote:

cartersDad26 wrote:The only thing I was looking forward to this morning to cheer me up a little was listening to Franzke's call of Pedro's homer again - and of course it's the only thing MLB doesn't have.

Can anyone help me out here??

They do have about 10 videos of Damon's crap in the 9th, however. Shouldn't that do it?

Now the Feliz homer is gone completely from MLB.COM - wtf???

thephan wrote:The luck argument has run dry with me.

I don't think you understand the argument. No one is saying either team is lucky to be here. However, if one team has several ground ball and bloop hits, and the other hits several line drives right at people, then the first team was lucky.

I was getting real mad about the Yankees luck, but calmed myself down by remembering the feeling in my stomach when Zobrist ripped that ball to right last year.

The pendulum swings back tonight. Hard.

What is Burnett's booze

I want to forget everything about last night except that Feliz HR. That was seriously the greatest thing that ever happened.

mozartpc27 wrote:I want to forget everything about last night except that Feliz HR. That was seriously the greatest thing that ever happened.

I'm a big Feliz fan, but even I was stunned. From utter domination to one mistake flying over the wall.