Halladay IV: A New Hope

by **CrashburnAlley** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:21:53

FTN wrote:drabek + taylor + brown + marson + donald + knapp for Qualls and Doug Davis!

yes!

Don't forget Kendrick.

by **VFB** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:22:56

CrashburnAlley wrote:
FTN wrote:drabek + taylor + brown + marson + donald + knapp for Qualls and Doug Davis!

yes!

Don't forget Kendrick.

if they're getting kendrick, i want haren too

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:27:15

milton bernard thompson wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:
somebody doesn't know what small sample size means

I actually taught grad level stats, so I know what it means. I used it as a board shorthand for saying that Halladay's playoff winning % is less likely to reach it's expected winning % in a small number of games than if it were a whole season. That's why superior teams are more likely to lose a short series to an inferior team than to lose a division crown to that same team. As N goes up, you approach the predicted/real results. That's why a larger numbers of subjects in a study leads to a lower P value, assuming the same results.

your logic was somewhat along the lines of "one game in a playoff series is a small sample size, so who cares who we put on the field for it," which is silly.

That's a gross oversimplification, which is what Woody was doing to my opinion. I would much rather put Halladay on the hill for that game. But the reality is that the chance that Halladay would make the difference in winning a WS and losing it is pretty small. It's not zero, which is why I would rather have Halladay, but it's small. I think it's less likely than one or more of those top prospects will help us get to a playoff and a chance to win a WS, which is why I'd rather hold onto the very top prospects. I would, however, deal Drabek because pitching prospects are so much more likely to break down.

I hope that clears it up. I really went about this wrong. I should have just said that I want Halladay, want to make the deal for him, but wouldn't want the price to be too steep. Others have said that without the backlash.

by **FTN** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:36:59

When Moyer gives up 7 ER against the Cardinals in game 2 of the LDS, when we've already lost game 1, people will remember this thread, and remember how we could have had Halladay. And ill cry a little inside.

by **Bucky** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:38:11

and it will all be monkeyboy's fault

by **mcare89** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:41:17

CrashburnAlley wrote:
RT @MLBastian RT @e_gilbert Ricciardi: "I think at this point it's probably unlikely that we'll trade Doc."

Zo

He'll be introduced here at a press conference on Thursday.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:43:05

But I want Halladay, too.

If anything, I'm driving down the price of Halladay with every post. I'm strengthening Rube's resolve. Halladay will be a Phillies for peanuts and you will all have me to thank.

by **CrashburnAlley** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:44:04

The Phillies, who continue to pursue a right-handed hitter, surely noticed that outfielder Ryan Spilborghs did not start in any of the Rockies’ first four games after the break.
The Phils offered two quality pitching prospects for Spilborghs, according to major-league sources. The Rockies, however, have been reluctant to trade Spilborghs, believing him to be a valuable extra outfielder and important part of their chemistry.

Kenny

by **FTN** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 18:45:46

so we originally targeted Halladay, but we'll eventually trade Drabek and Carrasco for a 4th/5th OF.

Sounds right

by **traderdave** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:03:41

FTN wrote:so we originally targeted Halladay, but we'll eventually trade Drabek and Carrasco for a 4th/5th OF.

Sounds right

Negativity is not welcome here, FTN :wink:

by **HillMD** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:04:19

ek wrote:Heyman and Rosenthal on MLB Network both just said he's going to the phillies

LOL

by **FTN** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:06:27

ek wrote:Heyman and Rosenthal on MLB Network both just said he's going to the phillies

hilarious

by **WilliamC** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:06:50

This is how I feel. Yes, like a monk on a rollercoaster.

by **Philly the Kid** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:11:49

WilliamC wrote:This is how I feel. Yes, like a monk on a rollercoaster.

gotta luv William --

Floppy you are in a deep neg head -- eject, abort, dis-engage brah....

It ain't over and this isn't 5 years ago -- I think the Phils brass likes being on top, likes being seen as a top org, and likes sold out stadiums... let's just see how this plays out...

Think about this -- we're actually courting a shot at Doc Halladay?!!! Not the Yankees or RedSox but the Phils, this isn't Milwood or Lohse or Moyer or Jose Mesa ....

from the perch of defedning/reigning WFC's and in first place with a healothy lead in the loss column in our division and well poised in the NL!

This may happen people!??!!!!

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:12:47

FTN wrote:
ek wrote:Heyman and Rosenthal on MLB Network both just said he's going to the phillies

hilarious

I guess I am dense, but why is this funny?

by **FTN** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:14:33

because an hour ago he wasnt being traded at all.

now hes being traded to the phillies and they say it with any kind of certainty.

honestly, i dont even care at this point. i was 50-40-10 earlier. now i think its more like 80% chance hes not traded, 15% traded to Phillies, 5% traded somewhere else for a lousy package we could have trumped

by **SideshowBob** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:16:53

ek wrote:Heyman and Rosenthal on MLB Network both just said he's going to the phillies

I'm assuming this is a "we expect him to be traded with the Phillies as the likely destination" thing not a "we heard a trade has been make so expect an official announcement soon" thing, right?

by **FTN** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:21:27

my dream scenario right now (outside of the Phillies getting him) is they decide not to move him, the season ends, and Halladay says that he will not waive his no trade clause to go anywhere in 2010, because he doesn't want to deal with the distractions. Ricciardi will get fired, Toronto will get 2 draft picks, and they'll be AL East doormats for the next 10 years.

by **SteveJeltzPhanClub** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:33:10

ek wrote:Heyman and Rosenthal on MLB Network both just said he's going to the phillies

Did they base this report on anything? Maybe they saw something from a random person on twitter?

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Jul 21, 2009 19:36:06

FTN wrote:my dream scenario right now (outside of the Phillies getting him) is they decide not to move him, the season ends, and Halladay says that he will not waive his no trade clause to go anywhere but to the two time defending World Series Champions Philadelphia Phillies in 2010, because he doesn't want to deal with the distractions. Ricciardi will get fired, Toronto will get 2 draft picks, and they'll be AL East doormats for the next 10 years.

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Halladay IV: A New Hope