60 Games To Leave Your Bubble: Phillies Thread

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 08:09:07

It's looking more and more as though the league adjusted to Hoskins and he didn't or couldn't adjust in kind. His BB Rate is keeping him in the lineup but that may be harder and harder to maintain as the league continues to realize he can be beaten with mediocre fastballs down the middle of the plate.

by **Stripes** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 08:20:59

Squire wrote:I get that Klentak hasn't fixed the bullpen. However, it just seems like every strategy that he has employed has failed miserably.

1. Signing a couple of mid-tier guys (Neshek, Hunter)
2. Signing a top tier guy (Robertson)
3. Hoping all the guys on your team bounceback from bad years last year

I don't know what the answer is but it pretty clear that Klentak doesn't either.

Also, I know its only been a week but I am really starting to wonder whether Rhys Hoskins is a part of this franchise's future.

Part of the problem is paying those mid-tier guys like top-tier guys. Nats are paying Hudson, who closed in the World Series and is at least sharing the position this year, less than Klentak paid Neshek and Hunter. Then wonders why a team up against the luxury tax is only .500.

by **Squire** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 08:44:21

Is it bad to wonder if the team might be better if you undid all of Klentak's trades (or at least the major and semi-major ones)

Ken Giles for Vince Velasquez
Freddy Galvis for Enyel De Los Santos
Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro and Will Stewart for JT Realmuto
JP Crawford, Carlos Santana for Jean Segura, James Pazos and Juan Nicasio
Jake Scheiner for Jay Bruce (hard to argue with this one I guess)

by **CFP** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 08:46:50

I'm not sure I even realized Blake Parker was still with the team, but looks like he is on the taxi roster. Why the hell is he not here over some of these other guys? Brogdon was also drafted 3 years ago, is 25, and has a track record in the minors. Bring these guys up and at least start there.

by **Titlehungry** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 09:01:48

Basically the future of this team is Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler... hopefully Howard and Bohm too... rest are low minors or just drafted guys

by **MoBettle** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 09:02:15

Stripes wrote:
Squire wrote:I get that Klentak hasn't fixed the bullpen. However, it just seems like every strategy that he has employed has failed miserably.

1. Signing a couple of mid-tier guys (Neshek, Hunter)
2. Signing a top tier guy (Robertson)
3. Hoping all the guys on your team bounceback from bad years last year

I don't know what the answer is but it pretty clear that Klentak doesn't either.

Also, I know its only been a week but I am really starting to wonder whether Rhys Hoskins is a part of this franchise's future.

Part of the problem is paying those mid-tier guys like top-tier guys. Nats are paying Hudson, who closed in the World Series and is at least sharing the position this year, less than Klentak paid Neshek and Hunter. Then wonders why a team up against the luxury tax is only .500.

To be fair, the Nationals middle relievers were pretty bad last year too and them blowing games was a major reason for their slow start. Like they got Hudson and some other guys in season to help fix that. Also like the Nationals, there's somewhat of a hope that if the Phillies can somehow get to the playoffs they'll be a much better team with having some good top of the rotation arms and not having to use the worst part of the bullpen.

But this is getting kind of ridiculous, especially with how important bullpen depth is this year with no off days (obviously Klentak is not expected to anticipate that - though they had a summer camp to adjust to some extent) and I'm not seeing the end in sight.

I don't know if there's a "right" approach, with the relievers, trades etc., at a certain point it comes down to more than approach and the GM has to actually identify the right guy and not just the right type of guy. I know we were all encouraged about the Phillies joining the 21st century and getting a GM with a modern approach. But we're also not in 2001 anymore where understanding sabermetrics gave you this big tactical advantage. That's like the baseline now and you need to bring more to the table than that if you want to succeed going against other GMs that are also up to speed. Klentak is running out of time to show that he can bring that. He hasn't been able to fix the team with deadline moves the last two seasons, we'll see if he can this year.

by **CFP** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 14:40:14

Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

Tonight

McCutchen 7
Hoskins 3
Harper 9
Realmuto 2
Gosselin DH
Gregorius 6
Kingery 4
Walker 5
Quinn 8

by **Slowhand** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 14:58:05

CFP wrote:Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

So do I.

by **MoBettle** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 14:59:58

Maybe they're trading him for 7 reliefers

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:03:32

CFP wrote:Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

Tonight

McCutchen 7
Hoskins 3
Harper 9
Realmuto 2
Gosselin DH
Gregorius 6
Kingery 4
Walker 5
Quinn 8

Took Girardi 6 games to go full kap

by **Wheels Tupay** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:04:18

Slowhand wrote:
CFP wrote:Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

So do I.

Hatred is a negative emotion, friend

by **Uncle Milty** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:09:00

Wheels Tupay wrote:
CFP wrote:Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

Tonight

McCutchen 7
Hoskins 3
Harper 9
Realmuto 2
Gosselin DH
Gregorius 6
Kingery 4
Walker 5
Quinn 8

Took Girardi 6 games to go full kap

Bet you guys are sorry you ran Kapler out of town now. If only the whole city supported him like I did.

by **ek20** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:09:36

No time to dilly dally

by **MoBettle** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:22:43

FWIW Segura and Kingery were the only guy that played all 14 innings in field yesterday. Like it’s not crazy to give him the day off stinkiness aside.

by **swishnicholson** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 15:55:59

Uncle Milty wrote:
Wheels Tupay wrote:
CFP wrote:Segura not in the lineup against a LHP after six games and starting Neil Walker. Man. Girardi must hate him.

Tonight

McCutchen 7
Hoskins 3
Harper 9
Realmuto 2
Gosselin DH
Gregorius 6
Kingery 4
Walker 5
Quinn 8

Took Girardi 6 games to go full kap

Bet you guys are sorry you ran Kapler out of town now. If only the whole city supported him like I did.

by **PSUsarge** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 16:23:32

MoBettle wrote:Well Tobias is 27 and barring injury is going to be in his prime (as underwhelming as you may find it) throughout the deal whereas there’s a real risk JT completely falls off and you have another Ryan Howard fiasco.

Also Sixto has like actual ace upside as opposed to giving up a rotation guard and two late firsts.

Plus the Sixers actually thought they had a chance to win a title at the time whereas the Phillies are still pretty far away.

Speaking of Jean, his contract is part of the reason they felt they had to wait on signing JT so they couldn’t drag the AAV of his deal down long term by including this year‘s salary.

If you view Harper and Nola as the Joel/Ben of the Phillies, you can make an argument that the JT trade itself was more like the Tobi trade but the re-signing of JT probably aligns more to signing Horford. I was looking at it from the trade perspective of "you already gave up the assets and this guy can be a key piece on a championship team" but I see your points.

Not sure I can make the Howard comparison as:
1) Howard's decline was accelerated by a serious injury, you can't account for that
2) The NL will have a DH, allowing them to mitigate the risk of JT's wear and tear behind the plate.

Bottom line for me is they made the Harper and Wheeler moves, it would be odd to not "go for it" with JT. Same argument made for why the Sixers sort of had to extend Harris.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 16:58:51

PSUsarge wrote:1) Howard's decline was accelerated by a serious injury, you can't account for that

I disagree to some extent. One specific thing that really pissed me off about the Howard extension was that we extended him years in advance but did not get any recognizable discount for the fact that, by extending him early, we assumed all the risk of injury through the end of the initial term. While you can never account for any particular injury, assuming the risk of any and all injuries for a couple of years and getting little or no discount in return was really poor negotiating IMO. Of course it drove me even more crazy that the injury came on exactly the final play of his existing contract.

by **PSUsarge** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 17:08:39

Completely fair regarding the Howard extension, was moreso just saying it's hard to compare extensions in this case when Howard blew an Achilles and had to play in the field every day.

by **MoBettle** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 17:12:59

PSUsarge wrote:
MoBettle wrote:Well Tobias is 27 and barring injury is going to be in his prime (as underwhelming as you may find it) throughout the deal whereas there’s a real risk JT completely falls off and you have another Ryan Howard fiasco.

Also Sixto has like actual ace upside as opposed to giving up a rotation guard and two late firsts.

Plus the Sixers actually thought they had a chance to win a title at the time whereas the Phillies are still pretty far away.

Speaking of Jean, his contract is part of the reason they felt they had to wait on signing JT so they couldn’t drag the AAV of his deal down long term by including this year‘s salary.

If you view Harper and Nola as the Joel/Ben of the Phillies, you can make an argument that the JT trade itself was more like the Tobi trade but the re-signing of JT probably aligns more to signing Horford. I was looking at it from the trade perspective of "you already gave up the assets and this guy can be a key piece on a championship team" but I see your points.

Not sure I can make the Howard comparison as:
1) Howard's decline was accelerated by a serious injury, you can't account for that
2) The NL will have a DH, allowing them to mitigate the risk of JT's wear and tear behind the plate.

Bottom line for me is they made the Harper and Wheeler moves, it would be odd to not "go for it" with JT. Same argument made for why the Sixers sort of had to extend Harris.

But JT wasn't being added to a playoff team. He was added to a team that went 81-81 with him on it. They're probably go about .500 again.

Harris is, I don't know, like adding Oswalt or Pence or something. An already good team adds a piece to try to go over the top.

The NBA is weird, the choice wasnt really signing Harris for 32 or another player for 32, it was Harris for 32 or another player for 22. With JT, every dollar they use on him they can use on another player. And if they pay JT 5/125 or whatever and he's DHing full time in 3 years I don't think we're gonna be happy about that. Harris is going to be 31 years old when his contract is over JT is going to be 30 when it starts, they're at different points of their careers.

And I agree that Klentak at least has probably backed themselves in a corner where they have to sign him. But it's probably more like a PR issue than it somehow being the difference in them contending for a title, at least unless he pulls off like 10 other things (a bullpen would be nice).

by **ReadingPhilly** » Thu Aug 06, 2020 20:48:06

La and frankze were talking about the new September schedule. 33 games in 30 days. 4 dh in 11 days. Five day, seven game series with the marlins with seven different start times.

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