2019-20 Phillies Offseason: Striving for Better Than Average

by **MoBettle** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 17:37:43

I’m pretty sure if Klentak actually put the franchise in a position where it looked like sustained success was possible on its own Middleton wouldn’t be barging in like this.

by **Uncle Milty** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 17:46:24

traderdave wrote:Feel like Zack Wheeler could be a high reward get on the relative cheap.

I also think he could end up being the best value of the group.

by **Shore** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 17:54:30

MoBettle wrote:I’m pretty sure if Klentak actually put the franchise in a position where it looked like sustained success was possible on its own Middleton wouldn’t be barging in like this.

We averaged just under 67 wins from 2015-2017, then won 80 and 81 the last 2 years. This year, we had incredibly bad luck on the injury front, and apparently made the organizational decision at mid-season to not sacrifice the future for a few more 2019 wins.

In Harper, we have one of the best players in baseball until after world ends, we have the best player at his position in the majors in Realmuto, and we have guys who can reasonably be expected to be at or above average in Hoskins, Segura, McCutchen, and Kingery. We already have a contributor from the 2017 draft. We need to solve 2B/3B, which includes identifying a permanent home (or permanent role) for Kingery. I hope we retain some of the other bats, particularly Dickerson, but we'll see.

The rotation weakness was exacerbated by the complete breakdown, health-wise, of the bullpen. Regardless, we need 2 or more new arms in the rotation. But those can be purchased.

I think we're pretty well set-up for sustained success, though we're a long way from the Dodgers, Astros, or Yankees.

by **joe table** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 20:30:59

What’s “relatively cheap” for wheeler? He’s one of the younger FAs in the group and had 3rd highest FB velocity in MLB last year I think. Hasn’t had injury issues in years now. Coming off a career year. Not exactly a sleeper

by **Shore** » Tue Oct 15, 2019 21:21:09

Wheeler’s results, relative to his home park, are just OK, I think. He’d probably win 25 for the Astros, but do we have that kind of coaching staff - to turn stuff into results?

by **phorever** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 08:36:46

Uncle Milty wrote:
phorever wrote:serious question: is there any successful 2019-20 phillies offseason that doesn't include signing gerrit cole?

Sure, but the aggregate of moves need to about equal signing him. Plenty of opportunity to do that since we can pencil in only 3 or 4 above average contributors right now.

the problem is that there were only about 30 position players worth 4.5 or more wins in 2019, very few of which are free-agents, and if you want 7 wins from replacing 1.5 - 2.5 win players (segura, kingery, hoskins, hernandez, haseley+bruce) with anyone other than rendon, you most likely are going to need to make 3 such moves. and the phils would need to add the equivalent of the full value of g.cole and rendon combined to be real contenders in 2020.
since the phils had two rotation spots worth under 1.0 fwar in 2019, the best alternative to signing cole is signing two (or three?) of the next tier of fa pitchers: ryu, odorizzi, wheeler, madbum, ... however, all of those have much worse risk/reward ratios than cole, and all of them would leave the phils relying on nola to rebound so that he can fill the role of a true ace that is pretty much a prerequisite for perennial contention.

i've got to say, i'm completely in favor of middleton reminding his management team that the phils aren't a small market team and shouldn't be afraid to blow by the luxury tax limit for one season in order to complement recent and future farm system successes (nola, realmuto via sixto, bohm and s.howard, maybe kingery and hasely and some of the pen guys) with premium fa's. moving on from a first-time manager still experiencing growing pains to a top-shelf manager like girardi to make those premium fa's more comfortable isn't a bad idea. nor is sticking with a gm who landed realmuto and cutch (and segura, whom i think most here are underrating based on an off-year) and several surprisingly effective midseason emergency replacements while staying out of last year's suspect fa pitching market in favor of a much better selection this offseason. middleton's current approach seems exactly right for an organization that still tends to default to thinking like a small-market team.

(sorry for the rant... but the new "meddleton" label is starting to annoy me. i had far too many decades of suffering under financially conservative ownership and analytics luddites throughout the management to put up with people slamming the guy whose "meddling" resulted in what is looking more and more like a win of the harper-manny stare-down last year, and who assembled a front office that finally brought the phils out of dark ages w.r.t. analytics and has at least as many big successes as big failures in its track record)

by gr » Wed Oct 16, 2019 09:32:05

Harper is not one of the "best players in baseball". He's very good but he was tied for 59th in WAR this season.

by **CFP** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 09:36:06

I mean, at 25 players per roster, times 30 teams, you're talking 750 players in baseball. Injuries, call-ups, etc., you're probably talking over 1000 players played in baseball this year. 59 out of 1000 doesn't make him one of the best players in baseball? I'd beg to differ. I'd say 59 out of 750 does too for that matter.

by **azrider** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:16:22

WAR is nice and like it personally, but it's not the bible. if you ask an gm/front office personnel, even the analytic one's, they will admit that harper is at the very least a top 25 player in the game.

by gr » Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:23:30

The way those terms work is fairly understood, tho

"Best" is one player
"One of the best" probably means, what, top 10-15?

Unless you think Feddie Freeman and Carlos Santana are two of the best players in baseball, also

I'm not knocking Harper, just think his rep is a bit overstated

by **heyeaglefn** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:25:26

gr wrote:The way those terms work is fairly understood, tho

"Best" is one player
"One of the best" probably means, what, top 10-15?

Unless you think Feddie Freeman and Carlos Santana are two of the best players in baseball, also

I'm not knocking Harper, just think his rep is a bit overstated

Would you consider one of the worst only bottom 10-15 when you are talking about over 700 players?

by **Squire** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:29:35

Maddon close to becoming the Angels manager.

by **azrider** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:08:51

Squire wrote:Maddon close to becoming the Angels manager.

apparently both millville and hazleton rank lower than orange county. would've never thought.

by **Phred** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 13:44:19

WhiteyFan wrote:
swishnicholson wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
phorever wrote:serious question: is there any successful 2019-20 phillies offseason that doesn't include signing gerrit cole?

there better be

Yeah, unless we move the city. I guess that depends on how committed we are to winning.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale spoke to a couple of Cole's fellow Astros, and they told him they think Cole will end up playing in California. The South Side, at least in the Astros' clubhouse, it seems, is not a betting favorite.

"It will be west of Nevada," outfielder Josh Reddick said. "We know he wants to be a West Coast guy. He’s a California guy, so he probably wants to be close to home. I know he mentioned Oakland a couple of times because of how he’s pitched there in the past. ... But that probably won’t happen. They’d have to clear the whole roster to afford him."

"I got the Angels," pitcher Wade Miley said, "and paying him at least $250 million."

When does Pujols' money come off the books?

I think it is really difficult to make a plan for the off-season regarding signing or trading for specific players...especially when it comes to signing free agents. Recent trends have FAs signing so late in the off-season that signing the FA almost has to be "gravy" at the end of the off-season after you have made or tried to make other moves. We experienced this last year.

You can say that they should sign Cole, Cole and Rendon but chances are that one or all three of them is going sign late and/or sign somewhere else and by then everyone else may already be settled.

Yeah, like Harper was a West Coast guy and Corbin was a lifelong Yankees fan and Machado wanted to play with his brother-in-law, etc, etc, etc.... This is all just the media looking for something to talk about. Cole will follow the money like every other FA before him.

by **Shore** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 14:36:22

Given Harper's age, and performance history, and health, I don't think anyone's going to argue that he's outside the top 25 players in baseball, with a chance any year that he might be #1.

by **D2S** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 14:42:50

So, I guess Jaun Soto with his 4.8 WAR and Freddie Freeman with his 4.0 WAR and a bunch other examples aren't one of the best players in baseball either.

by **heyeaglefn** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 14:51:48

To me "best" is probably top 10% of players, so if there are 700 you are looking at 70 or so players.

I think some schools use top 10% to classify their top of the class students.

by **Bill McNeal** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 15:23:51

To add to that, WAR isn't the be all end all, especially since it's reliant on defense which isn't perfect and still subjective.

by **BigEd76** » Wed Oct 16, 2019 15:32:09

Happy birthday Bryce!

by **ReadingPhilly** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 08:00:29

Jonny Heller@jonnyheller
If we split Zach Eflin's season into four parts:

First 7 starts - 42 IP, 3.00 ERA, .685 OPS against
Next 7 starts - 44 IP, 2.66 ERA, .667 OPS against
Next 7 starts - 31.1 IP, 9.77 ERA, 1.062 OPS against
Final 7 starts - 41.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, .685 OPS against

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