Orange is the new whack (politics)

by **cartersDad26** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:35:17

that is beautiful. how could less than 5% say none of these? It 110% should be none of those.

by **Bucky** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:36:09

HOW ARE YOU SO SURE OF THAT :shock:

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:38:58

cartersDad26 wrote:that is beautiful. how could less than 5% say none of these? It 110% should be none of those.

Little Marco truthers

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:40:21

It's a useless question right now. Ask in a month.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:43:46

Poor Little Marco. Republican voters just don't like him. The funny thing is he was their golden boy at one point but when he co-sponsored that immigration bill, he lost them forever. Instead of standing his ground and showing the rest of the party that he will do what's right for this country, he took it back.

This is why he has no real constituency within the Republican party. Or maybe he does, the Sheldon Adelson's of the world who know he's a puppet but even they dropped him like a hot potato.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:47:28

He wasn't an answer choice

by **Doll Is Mine** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:53:31

jerseyhoya wrote:He wasn't an answer choice

He was however on the ballot in the primaries and nobody picked him then either. He's a non-factor in the Republican party.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 13:57:46

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Trump has a 5 pt lead among voters who have returned NC absentee ballots, according to our estimates. Romney won the NC absentee vote by 33

by **CalvinBall** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:02:31

how do the estimate that?

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:04:13

Doll Is Mine wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:He wasn't an answer choice

He was however on the ballot in the primaries and nobody picked him then either. He's a non-factor in the Republican party.

He got 3.5 million votes and 5% of the delegates. He's not a complete non-factor.

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:04:49

CalvinBall wrote:how do the estimate that?

Perhaps self-reporting of those who sent in ballots?

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:10:06

Doll Is Mine wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:He wasn't an answer choice

He was however on the ballot in the primaries and nobody picked him then either. He's a non-factor in the Republican party.

I'd take him ahead of anyone not named Hillary Clinton in a 'person who is not president who is most likely to be president someday' if he's able to get reelected in three weeks

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:11:08

CalvinBall wrote:how do the estimate that?

Can build a model with party registration, race, gender, age, county as inputs to spit out a pretty good estimate of how the vote is breaking

by **Bucky** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:13:21

is any data at all about early voters even available publicly right now? I thought they only gave the # received until E-day.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:24:36

Bucky wrote:is any data at all about early voters even available publicly right now? I thought they only gave the # received until E-day.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status ... 7842978816

Not sure if breakdown county is available, but even without you can get a fairly decent picture.

50k votes in a state where 4.5 million votes will be cast by November is hard to extrapolate from. And the overall requests look stronger for the GOP than those returned so far (though weaker than 2012). But it certainly ties in well with the idea that Hillary is running ahead of Obama in NC and her campaign has a more effective GOTV operation than Trump's does.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:45:34

Trump had two versions of trolling to choose from today at his event:

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 14:47:27

jerseyhoya wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:He wasn't an answer choice

He was however on the ballot in the primaries and nobody picked him then either. He's a non-factor in the Republican party.

I'd take him ahead of anyone not named Hillary Clinton in a 'person who is not president who is most likely to be president someday' if he's able to get reelected in three weeks

Really?

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 15:00:10

Wow, just got off the phone with the person coordinating the poll observers for the Dem Party here in VA. I'll be at the polling site from 515am to 800pm.

Definitely going to cut into my "stay up and watch the returns while drinking scotch" plan.

by **slugsrbad** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 15:05:54

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Wow, just got off the phone with the person coordinating the poll observers for the Dem Party here in VA. I'll be at the polling site from 515am to 800pm.

Definitely going to cut into my "stay up and watch the returns while drinking scotch" plan.

Ouch, thank goodness for the Hatch Act. I don't know if you saw the Clinton campaign clip with Josh Charles (of the Good Wife) asking for lawyers and law students to sign up to help observe polls. I was tempted to sign up, but there isn't a clear way around the Hatch Act for me.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 15:06:58

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:He wasn't an answer choice

He was however on the ballot in the primaries and nobody picked him then either. He's a non-factor in the Republican party.

I'd take him ahead of anyone not named Hillary Clinton in a 'person who is not president who is most likely to be president someday' if he's able to get reelected in three weeks

Really?

Yes?

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