IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

Clinton up 11 in the new NBC poll

46/35/9/2

It's over

JFLNYC wrote:IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

Generally yes (I think at least...or maybe they tend to mirror the overall distribution), but this isn't a standard election. Trump did very poorly among late deciders in the primary and I'd expect similar in the general.

JFLNYC wrote:IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

JH knows a lot more about this than I do, but I'm not sure that's always true. Good pollsters (and I presume the HRC campaign has people doing this) can use a technique called discriminant analysis to try to predict what undecideds will do.

JUburton wrote:

drsmooth wrote:Love the athletes basically aying it's clear drumpf's never actually been in a locker room

well yeah, look at the dude

must I look at the dude, he thinks this has fuckall to do with a golf lockerroom

I think Trump's problem going into the last debate is that he basically shot his load last night by bringing in "Bill's girls" and threatening jail on Hillary and bringing up e-mails, ect.

While another tape or two may come out on on him, what more does he have on her?

CFP wrote:46/35/9/2

It's over

That's been a very dem leaning poll, but still. Also had congressional dems up 7.

JFLNYC wrote:IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

The thing is... who in their right mind in the past month has said "YOU KNOW WHAT, I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP!" who wouldn't be already?

I know Trump likely isn't losing a ton of support because of his base, but how the hell would he pick up any swing voters?

But LAT/USC still has Trump up +3.

Eem wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

The thing is... who in their right mind in the past month has said "YOU KNOW WHAT, I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP!" who wouldn't be already?

I know Trump likely isn't losing a ton of support because of his base, but how the hell would he pick up any swing voters?

How the hell is he a major party candidate for President?

Eem wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:IIRC historically undecideds generally break pretty evenly.

The thing is... who in their right mind in the past month has said "YOU KNOW WHAT, I'M VOTING FOR TRUMP!" who wouldn't be already?

I know Trump likely isn't losing a ton of support because of his base, but how the hell would he pick up any swing voters?

This is why I think we've been seeing the rumors that the Hillary camp likes their internal polling even more than what we've been seeing from public ones. 3rd party support is going to drop and undecideds will break more for Hillary.

drsmooth wrote:

JUburton wrote:

drsmooth wrote:Love the athletes basically aying it's clear drumpf's never actually been in a locker room

well yeah, look at the dude

must I look at the dude, he thinks this has fuckall to do with a golf lockerroom

you brought up the lockerroom, docbrilliant

what makes Trump dangerous to the GOP down ballot is not that people will come out and vote Hillary and then maybe pull the D lever on the rest if they were undecided.

It's that he may cause people to abstain out of protest and not vote at all, including many people who traditionally vote republican. I'm sure some will come and split the ticket but t won't take much in some districts for him to have an effect on house and senate GOP candidates

on the flip side, if Trump goes full on war with the republicans after being shunned this week, which there is a distinct possibility, you may see staunch Trumpies come out and vote Trump and ignore down ballot GOP competely

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:on the flip side, if Trump goes full on war with the republicans after being shunned this week, which there is a distinct possibility, you may see staunch Trumpies come out and vote Trump and ignore down ballot GOP competely

please

Don't get happy

JUburton wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:on the flip side, if Trump goes full on war with the republicans after being shunned this week, which there is a distinct possibility, you may see staunch Trumpies come out and vote Trump and ignore down ballot GOP competely

please

not claiming there will be droves that do this, but saying there may be enough to have an effect coupled with the other scenario

it's just speculation from me

pacino wrote:Don't get happy

too late

pacino wrote:Don't get happy

This is the democratic party's slogan of this millennium.

The Upshot has Clinton's chances of winning at 84/16, up from 70/30 12 days ago.