#Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Apr 08, 2016 01:13:05

jerseyhoya wrote:District convention for CO-07, slightly Dem leaning suburban Denver district, tonight electing 3 delegates to the national convention. Two of the three people on the slate the Trump campaign was trying to organize their people to vote for weren't on the official ballot, which was public before tonight but the Trump people did not know. Apparently the delegates/campaign didn't file the right paperwork/pay the fee/some logistical error. They might have other supporters who they could unite behind, but I imagine Cruz is going to swamp him again.

He very well still might be the nominee, but if he had spent a couple million dollars a few months ago on hiring three people who knew what they were doing/let them each hire a handful of people who knew what they were doing/let them each hire a handful of people who knew what they were doing, he would be in an overwhelmingly strong position right now. What a clownshoes operation.

The Cruz slate won

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Apr 08, 2016 02:45:58

jerseyhoya wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:District convention for CO-07, slightly Dem leaning suburban Denver district, tonight electing 3 delegates to the national convention. Two of the three people on the slate the Trump campaign was trying to organize their people to vote for weren't on the official ballot, which was public before tonight but the Trump people did not know. Apparently the delegates/campaign didn't file the right paperwork/pay the fee/some logistical error. They might have other supporters who they could unite behind, but I imagine Cruz is going to swamp him again.

He very well still might be the nominee, but if he had spent a couple million dollars a few months ago on hiring three people who knew what they were doing/let them each hire a handful of people who knew what they were doing/let them each hire a handful of people who knew what they were doing, he would be in an overwhelmingly strong position right now. What a clownshoes operation.

The Cruz slate won


Yes, but the real question that stands out to me is, what do you have against clown shoes?
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Fri Apr 08, 2016 07:01:22

Are those delegates who are bound to vote Trump 1st ballot but can switch 2nd ballot or are they are unbound and Cruz just picked them up
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Gimpy » Fri Apr 08, 2016 07:24:05

Hillary used a static noise machine to hide what she was saying (from the public, not the donors) to donors at a fundraising event.

But, you know, she's the most transparent public official in modern times

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Apr 08, 2016 09:18:28

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:Are those delegates who are bound to vote Trump 1st ballot but can switch 2nd ballot or are they are unbound and Cruz just picked them up

Neither, though closer to the latter. Colorado is electing delegates at the congressional district level and statewide through caucuses, and they can be either unbound or bound. I think of the three on the Cruz slate, one is bound to him the other two are supporters but technically unbound.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby JUburton » Fri Apr 08, 2016 09:24:56

He surrounds himself with the best thinkers. Really, just some beautiful minds. Sad that jh has to denigrate them like this. Sad!

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Fri Apr 08, 2016 09:25:52

perhaps his campaign manager has his eyes off the prize due to fighting charges that he physically assaulted a reporter.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Fri Apr 08, 2016 09:57:17

The betting markets are still severely underestimating Cruz's chance at the nomination and the Republican nominees chances in November, both paying out at over 2-1.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Apr 08, 2016 09:59:24

I agree with the conventional wisdom that says HRC is not a great campaigner. However, I take some comfort in this, partly because she's going to run against someone who is an even worse campaigner. But more importantly, there has been out there in political science circles for some time the idea that the skills that make someone a great campaigner are different from the skills needed to be an effective President. Now we may get to test this hypothesis.

I do think in the case of HRC, this does depend on the idea that she is in fact well qualified as a former Senator and Sec of State for the job, but her past experience does not make her more electable.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:14:45

The Nightman Cometh wrote:The betting markets are still severely underestimating Cruz's chance at the nomination and the Republican nominees chances in November, both paying out at over 2-1.

I'd want much better than 2-1 odds for the GOP right now. Trump is probably still near 50% to be the nominee, maybe 10% to win the general; Cruz near 50%, maybe 30% to win the general...so 4-1 odds maybe? I do feel good about the $20 I have on Cruz to win the White House at 30-1.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Fri Apr 08, 2016 10:30:00

Perhaps, I'm more bullish on Cruz in both cases. I think it's >50% to be a contested convention and it's pretty clear at this point that Trump does not have the staff to secure even a modest amount of delegates to reach 1237 at the convention.

Hillary is a gaffe machine and Bernie people are irrational donkeys who won't turn out, I completely expect a weaker coalition this year than in 08 or 12.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:41:36

AP:
Image
One group that is still with him includes those who describe themselves as both Republicans and supporters of the tea party movement. Sixty-eight percent of them have a favorable view.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Fri Apr 08, 2016 11:52:38

maybe I'm over-thinking this, but why would a reasonable person answer such a general, unqualified question with any of the options other than 'Would consider' (or 'Refused to say,' I guess)

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:04:44

i consider myself a reasonable person and i would not vote for Donald Trump
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:20:17

one NYC racist voting for another NYC racist

maybe they'll discuss their various marital infidelities or better ways to dogwhistle Image
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby SK790 » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:34:24

Scandinavian tax systems sound way better than ours, too bad it'll never work here because REASONS (the reason is rich people don't care and want to keep you poor).

http://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11380356/swedish-taxes-love
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby CalvinBall » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:42:22

i barely started but the first example is dumb. i dont want to pay higher taxes so i can go to an island. not everyone wants to go to islands. if you wanna go pay for it.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby CalvinBall » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:47:25

love the we have high sales taxes but you dont notice thing too as if that is some sort of positive.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:47:27

Bernie Sanders Is Even Further Behind In Votes Than He Is In Delegates

This is a big problem for the already implausible Bernie comeback scenario because Hillary super delegates can just stick with her and say more people voted for Hillary than Bernie even if he catches her in pledged delegates.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:49:38

what does 538 know? they skewed the polls in 2012 and they're doing it again!

so he needs to beat her by 190k votes in NY. sounds doable...
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