#Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 13, 2016 17:29:48

SIDE BY SIDE my projections from earlier with Nate's deterministic shouts this afternoon

758 current

Additional state by state:
WY - 0, 0
NY - 85, 85
CT - 21, 23
DE - 16, 16
MD - 32, 29
PA - 17, 17
RI - 9, 9
IN - 9, 9
NE - 0, 0
WV - 34, 29
OR - 10, 11
WA - 17, 15
CA - 112, 94
MT - 0, 0
NJ - 51, 51
NM - 10, 9
SD - 0, 0

The one thing from his writeup that made me happy is the potential for leakage in WV due to shitty planning. I mistakenly thought it was winner take all. I am pleased overall with my ability to read 538 and so thoroughly process the conventional wisdom that I got to the same place Nate is before he did. Margins are super tight in a lot of these places so small differences in trajectory could make a huge difference. This from Silver would get Trump to 1155, which IMO would make it incredibly unlikely that he gets the nomination. The path to 1237 numbers in his writeup are VERY doable however. Fine margins. If Indiana ends up 42-40-18 with Trump getting 48 delegates the words coming out of my mouth about John Kasich are going to be the best!

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Apr 13, 2016 17:38:36

I'm surprised Trump didn't say that New York is treating Eric and Ivanka unfairly and that the system is corrupt and rigged.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Gimpy » Wed Apr 13, 2016 18:11:27

Saw this joke on reddit:

Scientists recently did a study on the effects the right side and left side of a brain had on counting. They first took out the left half of a man's brain and asked him to count to 10.
He says, "2, 4, 6, 8, 10".
They put the left half back in and removed the right half, asking him to count to 10 again.
He says "1, 3, 5, 7, 9".
Finally they decided to just go for it and removed the whole brain. They again asked him to count to 10 one more time.
He says, "Look. I'm great at counting to 10, ok? I love numbers and I have the best numbers. No one has better numbers than I do. My 4th grade math teacher - and let me tell you, she was the best and smartest math teacher in the country at the time - my 4th grade math teacher said to me that I am the best counter she's ever seen. The best. So if you want me to count to 10, let me tell you I can count to 10 alright. That's no problem. I will do it. I will. And I will do it better than any has ever done it before, ok?"

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby smitty » Wed Apr 13, 2016 18:24:05

I can count to ten and make Burma pay for it.

Vote Trump!!!
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Wed Apr 13, 2016 19:19:36

Gov Wolf to sign limited medical marijuana bill
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 13, 2016 20:50:36

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/04/donald- ... terno-died

One imagines he means the statue but this is very oddly phrased. And so weird that it was written down like it was something he couldn't afford to forget to mention.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby smitty » Wed Apr 13, 2016 20:53:32

If I worked for Trump, I'd have a big :spam: :spam2: sign to raise up every time he said something stupid. I think I'd need more than one set.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Wed Apr 13, 2016 22:54:04

JFLNYC wrote:I'm surprised Trump didn't say that New York is treating Eric and Ivanka unfairly and that the system is corrupt and rigged.

The two are saying how unfair the system is...
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 13, 2016 22:56:03

TBF, while I do like closed primaries, and think all primaries should be closed, I'd prefer the window for switching didn't shut until say a month before the contest. Having to choose 6 months in advance is unnecessarily restrictive, and put in place to perpetuate/protect cronyism in a state full of corruption.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Wed Apr 13, 2016 22:59:25

He knew he was running for president some time ago. They had time to switch. They didnt.

It almost reads like you are coming out for expanding voting rights.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Apr 13, 2016 23:11:02

Well in their specific circumstance, they have no real excuse. But they're right that it's a dumb rule.

And there are some voting 'rights' things I'd push for and others I'd oppose (hate hate hate early voting, especially anything starting more than a week before an election), and many I'm pretty indifferent on either way.

I think if I'm controversial or whatever on anything along these lines it is on disagreeing with the commonly held belief that higher voter turnout is a normative good that ought to be pursued. I think voting is, on balance, at least as easy as it should be, and if I was making changes to how things are in most states it would be to tighten things up.

But if I was designing a system from scratch, you really ought to be able to join the party 6 weeks out let alone 6 months out and still be eligible.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Thu Apr 14, 2016 04:03:36

pacino wrote:it's kind of hilarious that she is backing Trump since she came to prominence over being disgusted about the divorce of Nelson Rockefeller

To be fair, Schlafly knew John D. Rockefeller before he founded Standard Oil.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Thu Apr 14, 2016 04:08:38

smitty wrote:If I worked for Trump, I'd have a big :spam: :spam2: sign to raise up every time he said something stupid. I think I'd need more than one set.

...or a shock collar.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Thu Apr 14, 2016 04:16:01

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Bucky » Thu Apr 14, 2016 06:41:03

I'm not a fan of the "rules" per se, but I'm less of a fan of people who switch parties at a whim based on a single candidate. Affiliation should be a philosophical thing and not flipped on a whim.

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby drsmooth » Thu Apr 14, 2016 07:45:51

jerseyhoya wrote:I think voting is, on balance, at least as easy as it should be


"on balance" - what's "on balance" mean

Dramatic pictures of long lines to vote aside, your statement is, as you note, kind of controversial.

Parties can do anything they damn well please, up to & including handing out cigars and special VIP passes to smoky backrooms, for all I care. They want to name a candidate & do it their way, have at it - there's nothing in the Constitution says you can't.

Imbeciles like drumpf are welcome to run for POTUS without a party's endorsement. Fuck him and any and all of them - but especially him - if they aren't up to doing it that way.

Sweaty maneuvering to thwart voting, and other crap to hobble representation, is a different thing. It continues to go on & needs to be squashed.
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby pacino » Thu Apr 14, 2016 09:31:11

wahh, it's so unfair to me:
Trump has won a higher share of delegates than votes in 24 of the 35 contests studied (67 percent), most notably in winner-take-all contests. Winner-take-all statewide contests are less democratic than winner-take-all by congressional district (in the sense that the delegate allocation mirrors the vote). And winner-take-all by district is less democratic than simple proportional allocation. Trump benefited most in South Carolina, which awarded all 50 of its delegates to Trump even as he won a little less than a third of the vote. He also took all the delegates in the winner-take-all states of Arizona and Florida, while earning less than 50 percent of the vote in each. In 40 percent of the contests, Trump did at least 10 percentage points better in the delegate race than in the actual voting.

Overall, Trump has won 37 percent of the vote in the 35 contests, while winning 48 percent of the delegates. Even if you include the conventions, where we don’t have any good measure of vote total, Trump has won 45 percent of the delegates. If Republicans were to allocate delegates the way Democrats do, Republicans would be much closer to a 1-to-1 votes-to-delegates ratio. That system would also result in Trump’s having pretty much no shot at winning a majority of delegates heading into the Republican National Convention.
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby Squire » Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:54:24

"hey....how about that Joe Paterno....what was that all about???!?"

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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:27:04

Heidi Cruz

When I married Ted, we got back from our honeymoon, and he went off to the store and came home by himself. And I was completely shocked to see that he arrived back at our apartment with literally 100 cans of Campbell’s Chunky soup. I never bought 100 of anything.

This was shocking to me, so we had a tough conversation about it. I said, “You don’t buy 100 of anything, much less canned soup. We can’t do this. I’ll be making things.” He said, “No, I know you. you won’t be making things.”

So the next morning, it was a weekend morning, I loaded up our car before he woke up and returned every single can. And when I got home, I called my mother just to make sure I’d done the right thing as a newlywed. And she emphatically disagreed with me. And so when Ted opened the pantry, I had to quickly tell him that I would go back and buy those cans again.


wat?
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Re: #Aprilandmayprimariesmatter (politics thread)

Postby drsmooth » Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:33:22

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:wat?


Ted Cruz does not feel that his wife has sufficient cans
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