Morsi's military guy resigned too, so I don't think he has a ton of sway there

as long as the military stays together even if there is a Muslim Brotherhood uprising shouldn't the military be able to squash it very easily? My understanding is that next to Israel, Egypt has far and away the best military in that region.

Depends on how much public support the Brotherhood has...and if there is a mass uprising to counter the coup. We've given the Egyptian Army a LOT of modern weaponry, including M1A1 tanks that are actually manufactured in Egypt. But terrorism, as we've seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, can turn a functioning country into a real mess relatively quickly.

One thing that hurts the Muslim Brotherhood is that they turned out to be totally incompetent at governing. I think it's a bit of a mistake to link them with AQ or Hamas. (Especially because at least from the perspective of the average Palestinian, Hamas is much better at governing than the PLO.) They're more like the Tea Party--essentially, a bunch of rednecks without a clue.

This is way fucked--I go to Al Jazeera America because they really do a great job on things like this, and I get a page with a bunch of pictures of attractive women who have been hired to tell me about the Middle East. You've actually got to go to Al Jazeera English for any actual news.

Also, this may reveal more my own hopes and prejudices, but I am really optimistic about things right now. If Egyptians recapture their revolution, then maybe forces of democracy and freedom really can prevail. If the 20th century was the worst in human history, maybe the 21st will be the best.

Have to disagree. The Muslim Brotherhood has had a number of people who were foundational in the creation of AQ - Al-Zawahiri is a former Brotherhood member, actually was involved in the assassination of Sadat. Qutb, one of the fundamental religious philosophers of 20th Century Islamic thought, was also a member and was executed by the Egyptians in 1966...his writings have been very influential in the Sunni Salafist/Wahabiist community.

The Brotherhood would be making a major mistake in turning that way.

I do agree that Hamas is generally better in governance however and that's basically why this coup d'etat occurred...the Brotherhood could not deliver on promises made after Mubarak was disposed.

TenuredVulture wrote:One thing that hurts the Muslim Brotherhood is that they turned out to be totally incompetent at governing. I think it's a bit of a mistake to link them with AQ or Hamas. (Especially because at least from the perspective of the average Palestinian, Hamas is much better at governing than the PLO.) They're more like the Tea Party--essentially, a bunch of rednecks without a clue.

Way too early to tell.There is a foundation bridge that has to be designed and built...Islam and a Western-style democracy aren't really comparable...the Egyptians, Turks and Palestinians all have elected fundamentalists to office...now, I think it's possible, but is still unlikely at the moment.

TenuredVulture wrote:Also, this may reveal more my own hopes and prejudices, but I am really optimistic about things right now. If Egyptians recapture their revolution, then maybe forces of democracy and freedom really can prevail. If the 20th century was the worst in human history, maybe the 21st will be the best.

I agree that Islam and democracy aren't compatible--indeed, fundamentalism of any creed isn't compatible with democracy. But I think the Arab spring and recent events in Egypt demonstrate that democracy really confirms Churchill's notion that it's the worst form of government, except all the other that have been tried.

pretty stumped about how anyone could see the first 13 years of this century as anything but a giant global fuckup on all levels

i mean there's 86 years to go so things could theoretically turn around

I dunno. WWI, Holocaust, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Pol Pot, Rwanda. As far as horror goes, so far, 20th century is kicking the ever loving shit out of the 21st. And don't forget, the much more likely possibility of extinguishing all life on earth that we lived with as a daily reality from about 1960 to 1989.

One of my old bosses is in command of US Forces on the Sinai Peninsula...just sent a Facebook message..."my life just became way too interesting..." Dude had seven vehicles blown up under him in Iraq...if anyone needs a break, it's him...

TenuredVulture wrote:I dunno. WWI, Holocaust, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Pol Pot, Rwanda. As far as horror goes, so far, 20th century is kicking the ever loving shit out of the 21st. And don't forget, the much more likely possibility of extinguishing all life on earth that we lived with as a daily reality from about 1960 to 1989.

yeah he's talking first 13 years, though. you're betting with the whole 20th century.

Egypt is like Mali, too. Those people have had it rough forever, just colonized like crazy, Al Quaeda comes in takes over, then the French have to come back in to try and restore some semblance of peace. They have no idea what it's like to be in a country run by its own people

Luzinski's Gut wrote:This is very good news. I had a discussion with a friend who is well up the food chain today about Egypt. The Army backed the urban, liberal, and Western oriented minority over the rural, reactionary masses who put the Brotherhood into power.

There was a piece in the NYT today pointing out that in Egypt, the democrats and liberals are at odds. The MB are reactionary fundamentalist chuckleheads, but the voters did put them in power. The folks who share our western values have no base of electoral support.

One of my good friends is Turkish. Their military routinely used to toss out ineffective or obnoxious governments in the name of preserving the Kemalist state and its secular prerogatives. Erdogan seems to have de-clawed them, but that's probably a best-case scenario for the Egyptian military.

Right on all accounts. If the Egyptian military can ensure that a government similar to what Kemal produced emerges, then this is a win for us. But the bottom line is its way too early to determine the ramifications of all of this...it could simply be a military coup and the Chief of the Armed Forces is now a dictator...

TenuredVulture wrote:I dunno. WWI, Holocaust, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Pol Pot, Rwanda. As far as horror goes, so far, 20th century is kicking the ever loving shit out of the 21st. And don't forget, the much more likely possibility of extinguishing all life on earth that we lived with as a daily reality from about 1960 to 1989.

he can be insufferable, particularly when wriggling out of making forecasts based on his analyses & assertions, but Stephen Pinker's basically in your corner on this one - & of course brings bunches of evidence

Luzinski's Gut wrote:One of my old bosses is in command of US Forces on the Sinai Peninsula...just sent a Facebook message..."my life just became way too interesting..." Dude had seven vehicles blown up under him in Iraq...if anyone needs a break, it's him...

I didn't even know that our country had troops on the Sinai Peninsula. How many and what's the deal?

drsmooth wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:I dunno. WWI, Holocaust, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Pol Pot, Rwanda. As far as horror goes, so far, 20th century is kicking the ever loving #$!&@ out of the 21st. And don't forget, the much more likely possibility of extinguishing all life on earth that we lived with as a daily reality from about 1960 to 1989.

he can be insufferable, particularly when wriggling out of making forecasts based on his analyses & assertions, but Stephen Pinker's basically in your corner on this one - & of course brings bunches of evidence

Yes. The 20th century also featured a segregated US, no rights for women or gays, the great influenza epidemic following WWI, colonialism, the senseless Korean and Viet Nam wars. There was a lot of progress made in that century, but it was a rough one to live through for much of the world. A lot of Americans have a huge nostalgia for the mid-20th century because that's when we prospered as last-nation-standing after WWII and got to strut on the global stage. Things were never as good for many Americans as the nostalgia suggests. It was, however, a good time to be a white male.

Interesting look at demographic trends and strategic options for Republicans over the next couple decades from Thomas Edsall. Somewhat reminiscent of TV's "cosmopolitans vs. populists" formulation.

It seems pretty clear to me that they're waiting for a candidate who's sufficiently compelling that he (I'm assuming it's a he) can mobilize the base while expanding the appeal to new constituencies, a la Reagan and Clinton. As a Democrat, the Douthat/Salam economic argument both scares and appeals to me, but the Republicans probably can't really trot it out until they're facing opponents with a much more radical economic stance. The "Sam's Club Populism" they advocate is arguably to the left of what the Democrats propose today, and its key measures probably wouldn't get more than a couple dozen Republican votes in the House, so that doesn't seem very likely anytime soon.