jerseyhoya wrote:How is what Toomey is saying any different from Runyan and Meehan?

TheHill.com wrote:“I don’t intend to violate any pledge,” said Toomey during an interview on CNN’s “Starting Point...."My pledge is not to support higher taxes,"”

Philly.com wrote:U.S. Reps. Pat Meehan of Pennsylvania and Jon Runyan of New Jersey said Tuesday that they would not be held to the pledge they once signed....

jerseyhoya wrote:Sweeney is going to run for governor if Booker doesn't. I don't think he can win a 2 way Dem primary against a liberal from North Jersey, but if a few North Jersey candidates get in he could maybe win with 35%. He'd be a decent general election candidate and would probably be a decent governor. Better than McGreevey and Corzine, and really anyone else the Dems might put up outside Booker and possibly Codey.

jerseyhoya wrote:What's your thing with Sweeney?

jerseyhoya wrote:Two of them say they won't be held to the pledge, one seems to be arguing that making taxes go up by less than they're scheduled to (while agreeing to an increase in revenues) means he isn't violating the pledge. But all three are on the same page policy wise.

New Jersey voters like Frank Lautenberg well enough. He has a 43/36 approval rating and in a hypothetical match up with Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno he would lead right now by a 15 point margin at 48/33.

Democratic primary voters are pretty happy with Lautenberg right now too. 63% approve of the job he's doing to 18% who disapprove. Nevertheless they're ready for a fresher face in the Senate. Only 36% of them think Lautenberg should seek another term in 2014, while 45% think he should retire and 20% are not sure.

If Lautenberg was to retire- or even if he doesn't- the choice of New Jersey Democrats to be their next Senator is clear: Cory Booker. By a 59/22 margin Democrats say they would prefer their candidate in 2014 be Booker than Lautenberg. And Booker emerges as the strong favorite in an open seat situation too. 48% would want Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rob Andrews and 13% for Frank Pallone, both Congressmen who have shown an interest in moving up.

Booker would be even stronger than Lautenberg in a head to head match up with Guadagno, leading her 52 to 29. 48% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Booker to only 20% with a negative one. He's very popular with Democrats (60/13) and independents (45/21) and even comes close to breaking even with Republicans at 29/34. In the match up with Guadagno he takes 21% of the GOP vote while losing only 7% of Democrats, and wins independents by an 18 point margin.

An open seat situation could be a little bit dicier for Democrats if Booker didn't choose to run. Andrews leads Guadagno 35/34 in a hypothetical match up and Pallone ties her at 32. There are more than twice as many undecided Democrats as Republicans in each of those scenarios though so it still seems unlikely this seat would prove to be a top tier pick up opportunity for the GOP even in an open seat situation.

The Governor's race would be an uphill battle for Booker as two polls released earlier this week show and ours, out tomorrow, will as well. But the Senate seat may be his for the taking if he's looking for a promotion.

drsmooth wrote:Widely recognized economic theorists like TomatoPie blandly maintain that "if you tax a behavior, you'll get less of it", while absurdly wealthy actual investors like Warren Buffett and guys running big honking businesses like Joe Echevarria Deloitte LLP are confirming publicly that in fact investors don't stop investing should you adjust tax rates - whether income or capital gains, or other - upward.