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11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:17:17

everyone talks about Nate alot, but what about this guy?

http://election.princeton.edu/

has a better and longer track record than Nate and has it as 98% Obama...

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby allentown » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:23:22

BigEd76 wrote:Romney's visit to Yardley

Seeing on FB that he showed up hours late and they wouldn't let anyone leave if they were freezing

This is typical. Appearances by the President/VP and candidates for these offices play by Secret Service rules. We encountered the same thing going to a Biden event last cycle. Nobody leaves while the guy being protected is in transit going or coming, within a certain distance, with no exceptions. In the event we attended, the host was the mayor and the mayor was forced to stay about two hours after the event ended. These events never start on time.
We now know that Amaro really is running the Phillies. He and Monty seem to have ignored the committee.
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby phdave » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:38:49

jamiethekiller wrote:everyone talks about Nate alot, but what about this guy?

http://election.princeton.edu/

has a better and longer track record than Nate and has it as 98% Obama...


I love the map with the size proportional to electoral votes.

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby drsmooth » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:41:43

Bucky wrote:
drsmooth wrote:
Bucky wrote:
drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Bucky wrote:how are they dependent, he asks, statistically curious and non-politically....

docsmooth posted something somewhere the other day about it. Can't find it at the moment.


oh ffs people please DO try to keep up



but this is explaining that the statewide races and the presidential counts in each state are related; not that the results from separate states are related


Nice clarification, Buck, thank you. You originally asked how the results from 1 state to another are dependent. That, they are not.

But results from one state to another are ARE related; that is, the results will move in predictable directions relative to one another.

Correlation is not causation, etc.


OK, I buy that as intrinsically obvious. But that doesn't seem to be the gist of how we got here: that the results of the 4 states are not quantifiable as 4 independent events: i.e. when JL computed the chance of 70/73/45/23 events ALL happening at around 5%, it's the common multiple of the percentages of INDEPENDENT events. That only changes if the events are DEPENDENT, not "related". So their relativity means the aggregate likelihood would move lineally in either direction, but doesn't change the total composite likelihood....


I believe we agree (unfortunately my grasp of statistics is so fragile I can't be sure :( )
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Bucky » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:44:36

so i was gonna go get saladworks for lunch but it turns out that RUDY (along with "actor John Voight" and a couple other pols) will be at that same shopping center in a 'get out the vote' rally at 2:30. Probably not safe to go near there now, I guess. Are those two Ds or Rs? I know there's a Willard office in that shopping center, so I'm guessing "R"....

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby phatj » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:47:38

jamiethekiller wrote:everyone talks about Nate alot, but what about this guy?

http://election.princeton.edu/

has a better and longer track record than Nate and has it as 98% Obama...

I read elsewhere that he seriously hurt his model's public credibility when he went against it to make a prediction.
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby td11 » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:07:22

Bucky wrote:so i was gonna go get saladworks for lunch but it turns out that RUDY (along with "actor John Voight" and a couple other pols) will be at that same shopping center in a 'get out the vote' rally at 2:30. Probably not safe to go near there now, I guess. Are those two Ds or Rs? I know there's a Willard office in that shopping center, so I'm guessing "R"....


100% R and i would also prepare ur anus for a jon voight sighting
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby td11 » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:11:29

jamiethekiller wrote:everyone talks about Nate alot, but what about this guy?

http://election.princeton.edu/

has a better and longer track record than Nate and has it as 98% Obama...


viewtopic.php_p=1650410#p1650410

he's winning the votamatic and colley forecast, too. i imagine a lot of models will be proven wrong if romney wins and we can blame it on flawed sampling in the state polls.
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Eem » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:29:07

Feel like Obama wins comfortably

I am basing this off the hard work of other people and my selective intake of said work
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Wheels Tupay » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:31:27

Really hope GR can pull the upset.
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Woody » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:33:27

People that comment on Facebook Page posts that get like 50,000 comments each exepecting to have some sort of actual dialogue are the best people.
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:34:45

They're the luckiest people in the world.
Jamie

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:35:16

i bet my mom 62$

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby drsmooth » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:38:23

Nowhere does Mitt lie so comprehensively and specifically as on the topic of health care
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:44:00

Nate is awfully confident about Obama's chances.
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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:53:02

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Nate is awfully confident about Obama's chances.


this is the same fucking complain people have of head coaches. "HE'S AN ARROGANT SHITHEAD, HE DOESN'T THINK HE'S EVER WRONG!" don't think i'd want a person in that situation to really doubt himself everyday.

get a fucking grip dude

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Trent Steele » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:56:49

did we win?
I know what you're asking yourself and the answer is yes. I have a nick name for my penis. Its called the Octagon, but I also nick named my testes - my left one is James Westfall and my right one is Doctor Kenneth Noisewater.

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Bucky » Mon Nov 05, 2012 13:57:34

Trent Steele wrote:did we win?



yep, 7-2

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Polar Bear Phan » Mon Nov 05, 2012 14:01:30

jamiethekiller wrote:
The Nightman Cometh wrote:Nate is awfully confident about Obama's chances.


this is the same fucking complain people have of head coaches. "HE'S AN ARROGANT SHITHEAD, HE DOESN'T THINK HE'S EVER WRONG!" don't think i'd want a person in that situation to really doubt himself everyday.

get a fucking grip dude


If an election is like a sporting event, it is probably most similar to an NBA or college game (i.e. there's a palpable chance the underdog wins, but there's probably a heavy favorite).

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Re: 11.6.2012 GDT President Obama v. Mitt Romney

Postby Trent Steele » Mon Nov 05, 2012 14:28:05

Bucky wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:did we win?



yep, 7-2



FUCK YEAH AMERICA
I know what you're asking yourself and the answer is yes. I have a nick name for my penis. Its called the Octagon, but I also nick named my testes - my left one is James Westfall and my right one is Doctor Kenneth Noisewater.

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