mozartpc27 wrote:jerseyhoya wrote:CalvinBall wrote:obama up 51-47 in colorado according to ppp.
all of their polls had large democratic samples today, so who knows.
They're doing their part to generate the narrative
It will be interesting to see if Nate treats them separately or if he lets them pull his model even further from the most likely outcome
Welp, Nate now has Obama up to a 73.1% chance of winning, 294 EVs, +1.5% in the popular vote. I suppose you think this is "even further from the most likely outcome."
Seemed like a pretty good day for Romney in the national polls. AP released one with Romney up 49-47. The ABC/WaPo tracker - which Nate said was the best of the trackers - opened up to a 50-47 Romney lead. But the model spits out better stuff for Obama because of all those PPP polls.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Obama 73% to win w/ those polls added. Bottom line simple: Romney is trailing - slightly - in tipping point states.
I don't think he believes in his own model at this point. The bottom line is you have Obama with a 68.5% chance to win the popular vote. Again there's only a modest EC bump (Obama 5.4% to win EC wo PV; Romney 1.9% to win EC wo PV).