hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Oct 25, 2012 23:26:36

mozartpc27 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:obama up 51-47 in colorado according to ppp.

all of their polls had large democratic samples today, so who knows.

They're doing their part to generate the narrative

It will be interesting to see if Nate treats them separately or if he lets them pull his model even further from the most likely outcome

Welp, Nate now has Obama up to a 73.1% chance of winning, 294 EVs, +1.5% in the popular vote. I suppose you think this is "even further from the most likely outcome."

Seemed like a pretty good day for Romney in the national polls. AP released one with Romney up 49-47. The ABC/WaPo tracker - which Nate said was the best of the trackers - opened up to a 50-47 Romney lead. But the model spits out better stuff for Obama because of all those PPP polls.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama 73% to win w/ those polls added. Bottom line simple: Romney is trailing - slightly - in tipping point states.

I don't think he believes in his own model at this point. The bottom line is you have Obama with a 68.5% chance to win the popular vote. Again there's only a modest EC bump (Obama 5.4% to win EC wo PV; Romney 1.9% to win EC wo PV).

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Oct 25, 2012 23:32:36

Now PPP puts out its national tracker and it's back to 48-48% so every national poll moved toward Romney today or stayed the same other than Rasmusssen (which went from R+4 to R+3) I think. And there really wasn't much state polling wise for Obama to hang his hat on outside of PPP (maybe O+3 in Nevada from Marist was good for him?).

I dunno. He's smarter than I am but models are tricky, and there seem to be some real problems with what his is producing at the moment.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Thu Oct 25, 2012 23:44:28

John Sununu said Powell endorsed Obama because they are both black. This guy is someone the Romney team puts on TV as a mouthpiece for them. I don't think Romney is dumb by any stretch but you have to question his thought process when he surrounds himself with people like this.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby JFLNYC » Thu Oct 25, 2012 23:56:09

John Sununu is a really awful person.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby philliesphhan » Fri Oct 26, 2012 00:27:23

CalvinBall wrote:John Sununu said Powell endorsed Obama because they are both black. This guy is someone the Romney team puts on TV as a mouthpiece for them. I don't think Romney is dumb by any stretch but you have to question his thought process when he surrounds himself with people like this.


Perhaps he only has his job with Romney because he's white
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 26, 2012 01:03:47

Will undecided voters tip the election against Obama?

The New Republic takes a look

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby bleh » Fri Oct 26, 2012 01:11:17

Ben Stein says something sane for once on Fox


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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Doll Is Mine » Fri Oct 26, 2012 01:23:34

Paul Ryan: "The method of conception doesn't change the definition of life."

:lol:

This is some scary shit.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby gr » Fri Oct 26, 2012 01:59:05

If Obama loses somehow, I assume he runs again in 4 years? Unless the party totally forgets about him in that time. I'm fascinated by what he'd do post-one-term since he's pretty young. I'm not hoping for that, mind you.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Oct 26, 2012 05:21:45

bleh wrote:Ben Stein says something sane for once on Fox




Maybe he really is concerned about leaving huge deficits to his granddaughter as he suggests. Some of these anti-tax people have to know that the economy can't work if you keep cutting taxes. The general belief in less taxes has been pushed to the extreme by the norquist army. Some of them must be getting pangs of conscience. Maybe Ben is one. Good for him. I especially liked watching the hosts, particularly the guy to Ben's immediate left, squirm in their seats as he took their ridiculous economic theory down a peg.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Fri Oct 26, 2012 07:48:58

I just saw that Sununu remark. Pretty amazing. The guy has been in public life since forever, and this is not the first time in this cycle he's said something like that--whoever asked him the question must have been thrilled.

I also don't remember him as a racist or idiot before this year. Maybe he's just losing it.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 26, 2012 07:58:18

CalvinBall wrote:John Sununu said Powell endorsed Obama because they are both black. This guy is someone the Romney team puts on TV as a mouthpiece for them. I don't think Romney is dumb by any stretch but you have to question his thought process when he surrounds himself with people like this.

Powell said why he endorsed Obama, and it wasn't that. Is Sununu saying that Powell is a liar? So he's now lied for hte second time in his public life?
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:19:36

3Q gdp growth was 2.0%, although that number is likely to get revised either up or down in the future

it's funny to see all the conservative economists poo pooing the number on my twitter feed. reminds me of how they tried to downplay unemployment number going under 8.0%
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:25:25

Doll Is Mine wrote:Paul Ryan: "The method of conception doesn't change the definition of life."

:lol:

This is some scary #$!&@.

I know we just talked about this and all :dh: , but I don't see how it's scary at all

if you think fetuses are people/"life" then you shouldn't care how they're conceived

please tell me how that statement is incorrect: "The method of conception doesn't change the definition of life."

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Grotewold » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:27:22

It's not what he said but why he's saying it

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:29:34

dajafi wrote:I just saw that Sununu remark. Pretty amazing. The guy has been in public life since forever, and this is not the first time in this cycle he's said something like that--whoever asked him the question must have been thrilled.

I also don't remember him as a racist or idiot before this year. Maybe he's just losing it.


http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2012/ ... ?mobile=nc
– Obama is a foreigner. Obama doesn’t understand the “American system” because “he spent his early years in Hawaii smoking something, spent the next set of years in Indonesia, another set of years in Indonesia, and, frankly, when he came to the U.S. he worked as a community organizer, which is a socialized structure.” [Fox News, 7/17/2012]

– Obama doesn’t know how to be an American. During a conference call, Sununu claimed, “The men and women all over America who have worked hard to build these businesses, their businesses, from the ground up is how our economy became the envy of the world. It is the American way. And I wish this president would learn how to be an American.” [Conference call, 7/17/2012]

– Obama is a lazy idiot. Sununu described Obama’s debate performance as “babbling,” “lazy,” and “disengaged,” and dismissed the possibility that he could do better in the future. “When you’re not that bright you can’t get better prepared.” [Fox News, 10/4/2012]



he is who we thought he was
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:36:38

you're not being fair. you are taking those quotes completely in the correct context of how he said them. if you take them OUT of context, you can make them mean other things and then they're not so bad.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:53:50

Doll Is Mine wrote:Paul Ryan: "The method of conception doesn't change the definition of life."

:lol:

This is some scary #$!&@.

Although I fundamentally disagree with the notion that women should be denied first-term abortions for any reason, this is the intellectually correct position for conservatives who believe that live begins at conception. Any social conservative who espouses that belief while permitting abortions in the cases of rape and incest is either a lying, pandering hypocrite or valuing the mother's emotional well-being over the unborn life--and therefore a pandering hypocrite.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Youseff » Fri Oct 26, 2012 09:54:30

I'm back to being very confident Obama is gonna win.
This is what a real tenderoni likes to do for you

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:04:48

Romney rejected new birth certificates for gay parents

The next month, Romney delivered remarks before the Senate Judiciary Committee in Washington in which he decried the state Supreme Judicial Court’s ruling and its effect on child-rearing. He outlined his misgivings about the request from the Registry of Vital Records.

“The children of America have the right to have a father and a mother,’’ Romney said in his prepared remarks. “What should be the ideal for raising a child? Not a village, not ‘parent A’ and ‘parent B,’ but a mother and a father.’’

Romney also warned about the societal impact of gay parents raising children. “Scientific studies of children raised by same-sex couples are almost nonexistent,’’ he said. “It may affect the development of children and thereby future society as a whole.’’

Romney expressed similar beliefs during a speech in 2005 to socially conservative voters in South Carolina, as he was beginning to be viewed as a serious candidate for president.

“Some gays are actually having children born to them,’’ he declared. “It’s not right on paper. It’s not right in fact. Every child has a right to a mother and father.’’


moderate mitt
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