JFLNYC wrote:I think you have to be careful not to view each of Mitt's gaffes and mistakes in isolation. Starting with his convention speech, through Libya, Iran, 47%, the Palestinian question, etc., there has been one misstep after another. On Monday he didn't even have enough time to initialize his new strategy before things blew up. It's as though he's having his own equivalent of bimbo eruptions.
The cumulative effect of these missteps is to confirm his worst characteristics, the result of which is twofold: First, although there's no question that the vast, vast majority of voters are already calcified in their choice, the ones who are still undecided will decide the election. Continued reinforcement of the worst of Mitt is not going to bring them into his camp. Second, the continued hand-wringing and hair-pulling from the conservatives pundits is a reflection of the disenchantment of Mitt's base. That base is not going to vote for Obama but, if enough of them aren't sufficiently energized to vote, that alone could cause his defeat.
Here's what I think (Because I know you are all dying to know):
As I said when I originally posted the link to the video in this very thread, I think this, in the end, will be little more than perhaps some "bulletin board" material for the Obama GOTV campaign.
The most important effect it will have on Romney is what it has basically already done: robbed him of 2-3 more days of trying to take control of the dialogue surrounding this election. Is that fatal yet? Not just yet, but time is really starting not to be on Mitt's side, and he can't afford too many more days where the messaging around his campaign is out of the control of his campaign.
dajafi rightly said that, in most presidential elections since the dawn of the television era, the better candidate wins. The corollary I would add to that is that the candidate whose message remains the most consistent throughout the campaign wins. In other words, if you find your candidate has to continually shift the "message" of his campaign, it's a sure sign hes losing. 2008: Obama is Hope & Change; What the hell was McCain's message again? Romney was already in the midst of a "relaunch" of his message, when he got hit with this stuff, causing him to have to shift back into defensive messaging for a few days. Obama's messaging has been far more consistent throughout the campaign to this point, and if that holds true through the period right after the first debate, it's probably all but over.
Finally, I think the root problem with Romney as a candidate is this: he gives the distinct impression, fairly or unfairly, that the only thing he REALLY believes in is that he should be president, and that he is qualified to be president because he is rich and wants to be president, and people tend not to like that. Again, I am not saying this is an accurate portrayal of Romney the man, or that he really doesn't have things he believes in. The problem is the combination of circumstances: for at least the last 5 years, Romney has held no job other than running for president. This fact alone can tend to give voters the impression that the most important thing to Mitt Romney is becoming President Mitt Romney - after all, most voters couldn't spend ALL their time over a 5 year period running for President (twice). Nevertheless, I don't think this would be by itself fatal; however, when you combine it with the fact that (like most politicians) he has shown a tendency to tell whatever group is in front of him what they want to hear on hot-button social issues, and that his campaign has shown a truly bizarre reluctance to share anything resembling clear, detailed policy proposals, his own behaviors tend to reinforce the general impression that the most important thing to this guy is to be President.
I think that is ultimately what will do him in.
