Politics: Spreading Santorum All Over This Great Nation

by **Polar Bear Phan** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 13:05:17

Fwiw, Santorum needs to do well in March or he's toast. I'd preliminarily rate the April contests as:

Likely and Lean Santorum: None
Toss-up: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
Likely and Lean Romney: DC, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island

The Texas primary got bumped due to the redistricting mess.

Edit: I should point out that early polls have Santorum well up in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but I doubt that holds once they start campaigning there.

by **slugsrbad** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 13:21:29

thephan wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Popular vote thru MI & AZ: Romney 40.4%, Santorum 23.9%, Newt 21.8%, Paul 11.0%, Huntsman 1.2%, Perry 0.7%, Bachmann 0.3%, Cain 0.3%

Is the 2.5% for people out of the race due to early ballots or dumb people?

They were probably still on the ballot since they met whatever qualification Arizona had. I would assume the 2.5% were neither early nor dumb, but just voicing their dissatisfaction with the remaining candidates.

by **TheAAGuy** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 13:34:27

slugsrbad wrote:
thephan wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Popular vote thru MI & AZ: Romney 40.4%, Santorum 23.9%, Newt 21.8%, Paul 11.0%, Huntsman 1.2%, Perry 0.7%, Bachmann 0.3%, Cain 0.3%

Is the 2.5% for people out of the race due to early ballots or dumb people?

They were probably still on the ballot since they met whatever qualification Arizona had. I would assume the 2.5% were neither early nor dumb, but just voicing their dissatisfaction with the remaining candidates.

They were all on the Michigan ballot as well.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 13:35:30

Most of Huntsman and Perry's total there is from Iowa and New Hampshire. I think the spill off vote in Michigan and Arizona was ~1%.

by **TheAAGuy** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 13:38:56

FWIW here are the vote totals for Washtenaw County, where I live:

REP President

Michele Bachmann 46 0.15%
Herman Cain 43 0.14%
Newt Gingrich 1610 5.39%
Jon Huntsman 89 0.30%
Gary Johnson 14 0.05%
Fred Karger 84 0.28%
Ron Paul 3775 12.63%
Rick Perry 36 0.12%
Buddy Roemer 68 0.23%
Mitt Romney 12611 42.20%
Rick Santorum 11097 37.13%
Uncommitted 390 1.31%
Write-In 20 0.07%

by **BigEd76** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 14:37:08

North Korea agrees to stop nuclear stuff in exchange for food

good news maybe

by **Werthless** » Wed Feb 29, 2012 16:21:44

BigEd76 wrote:North Korea agrees to stop nuclear stuff in exchange for food

good news maybe

This news can only be considered great.

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 13:35:13

Though I think a lot about "beating expectations" in primaries is crap, I really think any thing other than decisive wins on Super Tuesday exposes a very week Romney. The large super Tuesday playing field should play in Romney's funding and organizational superiority. It's hard to imagine how Santorum can really contest all those states at once. Also, assuming Romney is automatic in Virginia and Massachusetts, I'd take those states out of consideration.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 14:24:43

He already eated it all?

by **Monkeyboy** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 14:40:52

So we had a student from North Korea (that was the rumored country) that was supposed to be the son of some big politician. Nobody knew which kid it was or which politician because it was supposed to be on the hush-hush for safety purposes. I had a Korean student in my class. He left about a month after the regime change there, and he looked amazingly like the new leader pictured above. Seriously, I think it was his kid.

by **uncle milt** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 16:51:46

Monkeyboy wrote:So we had a student from North Korea (that was the rumored country) that was supposed to be the son of some big politician. Nobody knew which kid it was or which politician because it was supposed to be on the hush-hush for safety purposes. I had a Korean student in my class. He left about a month after the regime change there, and he looked amazingly like the new leader pictured above. Seriously, I think it was his kid.

was he wearing an il shirt?

by **Swiggers** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 16:55:55

jerseyhoya wrote:
Popular vote thru MI & AZ: Romney 40.4%, Not Romney 59.6%

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 16:58:05

TenuredVulture wrote:Though I think a lot about "beating expectations" in primaries is crap, I really think any thing other than decisive wins on Super Tuesday exposes a very week Romney. The large super Tuesday playing field should play in Romney's funding and organizational superiority. It's hard to imagine how Santorum can really contest all those states at once. Also, assuming Romney is automatic in Virginia and Massachusetts, I'd take those states out of consideration.

Very weak for the primary? Because with the way the national polls are responding to the latest swing in momentum (Romney is +11 in Gallup, +16 in Rasmussen over Santorum today) Santorum or Gingrich desperately need to change the arc.

Also Romney is going to win a lot more delegates on Super Tuesday than Santorum or GIngrich will.

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:05:38

Romney is going to win the nomination. But he's weak. Given the big Super Tuesday playing field and Romney's overwhelming advantages in terms of resources, he should trounce Santorum and Gingrich everywhere. Failure to do so means he's a deeply flawed candidate in the general, and will be at a serious disadvantage on what is sure to be a more level playing field.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:15:56

Eh, I think a lot of that is overblown. The things you have to do to appeal to the primary electorate is different than the general electorate, and people's attention span/memory is so short.

Romney's Skills and the General Election - Thought this was a decent read, along with the other article of his he links to. He calls him a perfectly adequate candidate, which seems like as good of a description as any to me.

by **The Nightman Cometh** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:18:13

If the economy keeps this upswing and unemployment gets below 8% it's probably going to be tough for any Republican.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:23:50

That's part of what Bernstein says but he says it better

by **thephan** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:30:31

Werthless wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:North Korea agrees to stop nuclear stuff in exchange for food

good news maybe

This news can only be considered great.

If the GOP wins, Herman is ready for deployment...

by **TenuredVulture** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 17:54:53

I think a good candidate would beat Obama under any realistic economic scenario that's likely to obtain in November. By the same token--Bush was very vulnerable in 2004, but the Democrats ran Kerry. And Bush had no business winning in 2000, but Gore was an atrocious candidate. Indeed, the only recent election where the basic retrospective conditions supported the actual outcome was 2008.

Both parties have a dysfunctional nominating process, but that didn't used to be case for the Republicans.

by **drsmooth** » Thu Mar 01, 2012 18:16:26

Rush to Georgetown: your women students are sluts & prostitutes

in other news, he apparently believes that the quantity of birth control pills a woman takes is determined by how often she has sex

She’s having so much sex she can’t afford the contraception.

one look at his repulsive carcass explains his ignorance of these matters

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