About 12% is in from Weiner's district and the GOPer is up 56-44 - NY09

Apparently the Queens portion of the district has some very strong Dem areas, so if those aren't coming in at all this might still be a race. The GOP headquarters is already celebrating like they won per Twitter.

Edit: Much closer, Queens is tied. Turner is winning the early precincts from Brooklyn 75-25% though. I had no idea Brooklyn was so much like West Texas.

Everyone on Twitter acting like it's over but it's only a 500 vote race right now. And I don't think the Brooklyn part of the district is uniformly awesome for the GOP (I mean it's fucking Brooklyn), so it being more out isn't necessarily indicative that Turner is going to win.

I don't get it.

jerseyhoya wrote:About 12% is in from Weiner's district and the GOPer is up 56-44 - NY09

Apparently the Queens portion of the district has some very strong Dem areas, so if those aren't coming in at all this might still be a race. The GOP headquarters is already celebrating like they won per Twitter.

Edit: Much closer, Queens is tied. Turner is winning the early precincts from Brooklyn 75-25% though. I had no idea Brooklyn was so much like West Texas.

Right now, the SWP (which has to be Socialist Worker's Party) is at 77. Not percent, votes.

jerseyhoya wrote:Honestly my biggest question coming out of it was wondering why that guy was ever a Republican

He appears to agree with literally nothing the party stands for, much of which were things the party stood for back when he started working for it in the 80s

I asked that question too, and also why, if he professes to be some sort of Republican, did he publish this on one of the most lefty sites out there. You'd think if he wanted to wake as many people as possible up, he'd put it on a centrist or center-left site. Given where he published it and the tone which he wrote it in, he comes off as a lefty who also hates Democrats.

First GOP special election pickup in a head to head race since...seriously I have no fucking idea.

Per Wikipedia - Randy Forbes in 2001. Dems have won 7 since then. Jesus.

jerseyhoya wrote:First GOP special election pickup in a head to head race since...seriously I have no fucking idea.

Per Wikipedia - Randy Forbes in 2001. Dems have won 7 since then. Jesus.

Jerz, I hear the enthusiasm in your words but have zero idea of the significance there might be in this apparently tremor-inducing event.

Are you saying the elephants need more nebbishes to whip their dicks out with cell camera in hand to retain their House majority?

jerseyhoya wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Federal appeals court panel puts Carl Lewis back on ballot for state Senate race.

I don't even know why the state bothers having election laws. The courts apparently never think any of them matter.

I'd agree if the state election law actually stated what a "resident" was. And if, in the absence of this, it didn't designate a political hack to make this interpretation (one who, in her hackdom decided to misrepresent/ignore/misinterpret/lie about the evidence in front of her.

I'm happy to be corrected if I'm wrong, but there's simply no way anyone can look at that law and not see that in this case it allows for interpretation either way. And since it comes down to interpretation I'd rather the courts do it than someone who owes her fealty to the head of the opposition party.

I'm no fancy big city lawyer (and admittedly have read little about this case and the whole appeals process so maybe I'm taking this line way out of context), but I don't get how there isn't a compelling state interest in enforcing its election laws.

In a court order issued about six hours after Lewis made a list-ditch appeal, the panel said the state "failed to demonstrate compelling state interest in the application" of the residency requirement.

...

Judge Thomas Ambro, who wrote the decision, was skeptical of the state’s case, saying the requirement exists to make sure candidates know their districts and voters know the candidates. "It’s hard to say that this candidate doesn’t know the local issues affecting the 8th Legislative District, and it’s kind of hard to say the voters don’t know who he is," Ambro said.

I dunno. Kinda seems like the judge is saying that because he grew up here and is a famous track star he doesn't really have to have lived in New Jersey for the last four years. If he was just some random guy that lived and voted in California but had a house in the district would the residency issue matter, since people would be less likely to know who he is?

I'm also very glad we took political hackery out of the matter and let the judges appointed by Clinton and Obama outvote the judge appointed by Reagan 2-1 in putting Lewis on the ballot.

I'm about this close to agreeing with you, since I think a clear law fairly applied would be the best solution, so I'll try not to belabor the point, but I thin your response distorts a number of points.

1.Guadagno's decision ignored the fact that Lewis had clearly purchased a home for himself back in 2005, instead stating this purchase as occurring in 2007 and concluding that he had missed the deadline by eight days (bummer).

2. The portion of the judge's decision quoted above refers not to election laws in general, but to this case alone. Lewis clearly has been a part-time resident (when he hasn't been a full time resident) in New Jersey not only for four years, but for years upon years, has family in the area, regularly works with the Willingboro track team, etc. I'm assuming there was an original purpose to the, and that it was (as the judge stated)to ensure that candidates had some familiarity with their district. In this case, that's true.

3.The facts of the judge's appointments may indeed indicate their political leanings, but that's a far cry from the dependent relationship of a Lieutenant Governor to to the Governor. She really should have recused herself.

As I say, fair law fairly applied seems the best solution to me. Although having the voters, seemingly now with a clear understanding of Lewis' NJ creds or lack of creds, decide this seems fine too. I don't have any opinion on the value of either candidate.

Hoya - I think what was learned is that the GOP could get out the base for this oddball election. I do not see it as a model that is reliable or even predictive. The enthusiasm is more eye of the beholder IMO. I would be curious to see how the Dems feel about it, especially since it seems that there was some investment in this mid-term election. I do think that the winner nailed it, apathy, but he did not grasp that it was also reflected in his victory as well. I hope he can make some noise and drive change, but putting my reality glasses on I know better.

I like Amaoday (sp) in Arizona summation of his victory. Effectively he said what we have been doing is not working and it needs to change. I don't know much about him, but if truly believes this he will figure out how to work with everyone for the better of country, not tow the party line.

A couple thoughts on the NY special election:

1) Weprin is a pretty lame pol, almost the embodiment of a careerist hack. He wasn't ever going to be able to present a personally compelling story that could rise above the bigger trends.

2) Religious Jews are racist. Trust me on this. They additionally hate Obama because in their eyes he's not "pro-Israel"; I'd take issue with the notion that wanting to see Israel ever more closely resemble South Africa in the '80s is a "pro" position,'but there you have it.

Turner all but admits he a total nonentity (as is Weprin). The big gain for him is that he can put "Congressman" on his tombstone.

thephan wrote: I don't know much about him, but if truly believes this he will figure out how to work with everyone for the better of country, not tow the party line.

it's "toe the line" its "toe the line" it's "toe the line" it's "toe the line" its "toe the line" it's "toe the line" it's "toe the line" its "toe the line" it's "toe the line" it's "toe the line" its "toe the line" it's "toe the line"

gahhhhhhhhhhhh

I'm sorry, little bugaboo with me, please continue

Kinda like Champing at the Bit, which is correct, is to me. Live and learn.

dajafi wrote:A couple thoughts on the NY special election:

1) Weprin is a pretty lame pol, almost the embodiment of a careerist hack. He wasn't ever going to be able to present a personally compelling story that could rise above the bigger trends.

2) Religious Jews are racist. Trust me on this. They additionally hate Obama because in their eyes he's not "pro-Israel"; I'd take issue with the notion that wanting to see Israel ever more closely resemble South Africa in the '80s is a "pro" position,'but there you have it.

Turner all but admits he a total nonentity (as is Weprin). The big gain for him is that he can put "Congressman" on his tombstone.

Are they more racist than when they voted for Obama by 11 points 3 years ago? Or because they are racist and voted for Obama by 11 points in 2008, a white Democratic Presidential hopeful would have won by ~20 points, and the 17 point swing should be seen as larger? Or is this just a general comment unrelated to results?

Hoya, this is your end of the game. Do you agree that the NY special election is an upset? Aside from being heavily democratic in registration in the district, it almost seemed a lock from afar that it was going to the GOP in the special election. I know the press love sensationalism, but it seems more like non-news to me or at least, in this case, deserving a small piece stating who won, their affiliation and what their plank was.

Werthless wrote:

dajafi wrote:A couple thoughts on the NY special election:

1) Weprin is a pretty lame pol, almost the embodiment of a careerist hack. He wasn't ever going to be able to present a personally compelling story that could rise above the bigger trends.

2) Religious Jews are racist. Trust me on this. They additionally hate Obama because in their eyes he's not "pro-Israel"; I'd take issue with the notion that wanting to see Israel ever more closely resemble South Africa in the '80s is a "pro" position,'but there you have it.

Turner all but admits he a total nonentity (as is Weprin). The big gain for him is that he can put "Congressman" on his tombstone.

Are they more racist than when they voted for Obama by 11 points 3 years ago? Or because they are racist and voted for Obama by 11 points in 2008, a white Democratic Presidential hopeful would have won by ~20 points, and the 17 point swing should be seen as larger? Or is this just a general comment unrelated to results?

2 and 3.

is michelle bachmann a plant to try to make palin look competent by comparison? serious question.

Bucky wrote:is michelle bachmann a plant to try to make palin look competent by comparison? serious question.

I honestly read this part only and started cracking up. I think that is too, a serious question.

From the 7th grade Student Council Election Question bpx: Candidate michelle bachmann, if you were a plant, what kind of plant would you be?

Well, Tom, I would be the mightiest oak that God would grow to shade out the tax and spend, Godless, socialists we call democrats because that is His will, His will to wreak whatever havoc needs to be brought down until that breed are all condemned from public office and left to live on the streets of sin with all those other people.

swishnicholson wrote:1.Guadagno's decision ignored the fact that Lewis had clearly purchased a home for himself back in 2005, instead stating this purchase as occurring in 2007 and concluding that he had missed the deadline by eight days (bummer).

When I said I hadn't been paying much attention to the case, I wasn't kidding, and I hadn't really read anything about this. Or if I had I selectively forgot it because that's pretty embarrassing. I wouldn't have been so flippant about the judges if I had known that.

In any case I still think she was right even if for the wrong reason. You make decent points about part time and full time residency and the law not being specific I guess, but I have a hard time conceiving of a residency clause not meaning primary residence, place where you vote.

NY09 was a big upset. It's a Democratic district trending Republican. But it's still a Democratic district, and they heavily outspent the GOP. Obama was really unpopular in the district.

NV02 was a huge blowout in a GOP leaning - but not that solid - district. Decent Dem candidate too. Obama was really unpopular in the district.

Lotta people becoming really racist in America. Obama's very unpopular in most districts.

they're not 'becoming' racist