Truck Yourself, This is the NEW Politics Thread

Postby dajafi » Tue Feb 09, 2010 14:47:48

[url=http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/why_bipartisanship_is_impossible_on_the_jobs_bill.php]Bipartisanship inaction! (Jobs Bill version):
[/url]

Jon Chait's theory is Obama's strategy against opponents is consistent*: "take them up on their claim to some shared goal (nuclear disarmament, health care reform), elide their preferred red herrings, engage them seriously, and then expose their disingenuousness."

Maybe, but it's pretty clear to me how this turns out. Republicans will ask if Obama's willing to consider an across-the-board tax cut. He'll say no, because he doesn't think it will create jobs and he knows it will add significantly to the deficit. Then Republicans will say they couldn't reach a deal, Obama will have to build a job creation bill with Democrats only, and Republicans will counter every proposal with: "This is more of the same old failed policies from Democrats, who are spending our way into a bottomless hole and tragically burdening on our children with debt without doing a thing create jobs."

That will re-dig the trenches. Mainstream news will describe Congress as a partisan pit, and public opinion will begin to turn against the bill because they think Democrats are forcing legislation through, and the bill is taking too long to come together, and they don't think it will work, anyway because the press surrounding the bill will be mostly negative. Moderate Democrats will get nervous and ask to pare down the bill, which will probably make it less effective, and months later, if Democrats actually pass the weak-sauce law, it will necessarily lose Republicans, alienate independents and frustrate liberals.

So yeah, bipartisanship. Let's have at it.


I guess Obama could then turn and say, "Look, the tax cuts were the least effective part of the stimulus in terms of creating jobs, AND you guys constantly moan about deficits. Do you see the problem here?"

But they don't, and the media idiots will just cover the process rather than the issues, and this crap will unfold just as written here. Democracy's fun, dammit.

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Postby Werthless » Tue Feb 09, 2010 14:50:54

A few cartoons:

Image

Image

Image

Image

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Feb 09, 2010 14:52:21

That last one is great

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:01:42

VoxOrion wrote:I mean, supposedly each representative is expected to vote on behalf of the will of the people they represent.


I've always wondered about this point philosophically. On the one hand, they are elected officials, who supposedly should vote in ways that reflect the will of the people, right? Because if their will and the people's will isn't the same, presumably, 1) they wouldn't have gotten elected in the first place and 2) they certainly won't get re-elected.

But we deride politicians who govern "through opinion polls." And the truth is, if all you want is for your representative to vote with however the majority of his constituency feels, why do we even need the middle person (i.e., congressperson)? Just do everything through ballot questions and direct democracy.

Our system, of course, was set up to avoid exactly that process, and in fact there were a couple of good articles in The Economist a couple of weeks ago on how the proliferation of ballot initiatives is quite possibly ruining California.

So: should elected officials assume they have a mandate, and then vote the way he or she personally feels? Or should they turn to their constituents and vote with the majority of them?

It's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg question to me.
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Postby Gomes » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:09:00

Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:12:23

Gomes wrote:Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." - Edumund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol

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Postby dajafi » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:45:24

jerseyhoya wrote:
Gomes wrote:Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." - Edumund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol


This. If we wanted "direct" democracy, at this point the technology basically exists to have it. Maybe it's my elitism talking, but I don't think it would work out very well, as California's limited experience with policymaking by initiative and referendum suggests.

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Postby jamiethekiller » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:50:59

Off Topic:

How important is the 2010 Census?

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:56:03

dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Gomes wrote:Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." - Edumund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol


This. If we wanted "direct" democracy, at this point the technology basically exists to have it. Maybe it's my elitism talking, but I don't think it would work out very well, as California's limited experience with policymaking by initiative and referendum suggests.


But, as an electorate, we often operate on the "did he do exactly what we wanted?" principle. Let's suppose there was a Democratic congressperson who was also a devout Catholic who got elected from one of the nicer parts of Boston. If that congressperson in the House of Representatives makes 100 votes, and 99 of them are low-profile but would meet with the general approval of 51% or more of the electorate if they bothered to find anything out about it, while 1 of those votes is high profile (say, on abortion) and goes against the will of 51% or more of the people, that guy is out on his ass at the next election, 9 times out of 10.

This, of course, is more argument in favor of representative democracy: people don't know what they want.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:56:36

Like for congressional reapportionment and electoral college reasons? Or something else?

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 15:58:07

jerseyhoya wrote:Like for congressional reapportionment and electoral college reasons? Or something else?


I was wondering about this too. When does the 2010 census go into affect in terms of reapportioning? Will the 2010 election use the current allotment of the 435 members of the house?
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Feb 09, 2010 16:04:39

mozartpc27 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Like for congressional reapportionment and electoral college reasons? Or something else?


I was wondering about this too. When does the 2010 census go into affect in terms of reapportioning? Will the 2010 election use the current allotment of the 435 members of the house?


Reapportionment goes into effect for the 2012 cycle, so the next presidential election will have different electoral college numbers. Here's a roundup from three demographic projections made in December when the census released its updated estimates. PA and NJ both seem pretty likely to lose a seat.

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 16:14:36

jerseyhoya wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Like for congressional reapportionment and electoral college reasons? Or something else?


I was wondering about this too. When does the 2010 census go into affect in terms of reapportioning? Will the 2010 election use the current allotment of the 435 members of the house?


Reapportionment goes into effect for the 2012 cycle, so the next presidential election will have different electoral college numbers. Here's a roundup from three demographic projections made in December when the census released its updated estimates. PA and NJ both seem pretty likely to lose a seat.


Yeah, I figured PA might lose 2.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Feb 09, 2010 16:23:49

mozartpc27 wrote:
dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Gomes wrote:Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." - Edumund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol


This. If we wanted "direct" democracy, at this point the technology basically exists to have it. Maybe it's my elitism talking, but I don't think it would work out very well, as California's limited experience with policymaking by initiative and referendum suggests.


But, as an electorate, we often operate on the "did he do exactly what we wanted?" principle. Let's suppose there was a Democratic congressperson who was also a devout Catholic who got elected from one of the nicer parts of Boston. If that congressperson in the House of Representatives makes 100 votes, and 99 of them are low-profile but would meet with the general approval of 51% or more of the electorate if they bothered to find anything out about it, while 1 of those votes is high profile (say, on abortion) and goes against the will of 51% or more of the people, that guy is out on his ass at the next election, 9 times out of 10.

This, of course, is more argument in favor of representative democracy: people don't know what they want.


The people get to decide what kind of representative they want. If they want Burkean trustees, then they will vote for trustees. They won't pay much attention to individual votes, they'll look at something like a philosophy of government and vote for someone who reflects that. If, however, the people want "delegates" that is representatives who will vote based on the prevailing desires of the constituency, then they will pay attention to individual votes cast and specific issue positions a candidate takes and vote accordingly. All this is of course a model of electing representatives and doesn't really reflect anything that actually happens--it's only an approximation. Like those weather predictions or SIERA.
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Postby allentown » Tue Feb 09, 2010 16:52:46

mozartpc27 wrote:
dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Gomes wrote:Being idealistic/naive/stupid, I've always thought that representatives should vote based on whether they think the legislation is proper for the district/state, and for the country. And then be judged on his/her judgment after 2 or 6 years.

"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion." - Edumund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol


This. If we wanted "direct" democracy, at this point the technology basically exists to have it. Maybe it's my elitism talking, but I don't think it would work out very well, as California's limited experience with policymaking by initiative and referendum suggests.


But, as an electorate, we often operate on the "did he do exactly what we wanted?" principle. Let's suppose there was a Democratic congressperson who was also a devout Catholic who got elected from one of the nicer parts of Boston. If that congressperson in the House of Representatives makes 100 votes, and 99 of them are low-profile but would meet with the general approval of 51% or more of the electorate if they bothered to find anything out about it, while 1 of those votes is high profile (say, on abortion) and goes against the will of 51% or more of the people, that guy is out on his ass at the next election, 9 times out of 10.

This, of course, is more argument in favor of representative democracy: people don't know what they want.

I don't think this is an argument in favor of representative democracy. I think your assumption is probably 90% true of the way 50% of people vote. But what this means in reality is that the majority of voters don't understand or don't care about 95% of the votes a guy makes. There are only 1 or 2 or 3 votes in a legislative term that most voters really care strongly about. These are recognized, which is why these are called hot button issues. The issues aren't the same for all voters. For one voter it may be abortion and gay rights, pro or con, for another it is the Iraq war, for another it is public option healthcare reform, for another it is raising or lowering a tax. These may be hot button issues because they are inherently emotional or because they are the issues voters understand on a gut level. When people vote on 'the issues', it is generally just one or two issues. Other voters vote straight party ticket, for the candidate that seems like the nicest person, for the candidate with the best resume, or for the candidate who seems to be brightest/most verbally fluent. I have rarely met a voter who decided based on the 'issues' who went on a laundry list of more than 2 issues, although I have met a fair number of voters who farm out this issues analysis and vote for the candidate based on who a liberal or conservative organization recommends. But for each voter, get away from the couple or perhaps 3 hot button issues, and they don't really care how the guy voted on the many, many other votes he cast. There is also the logical disconnect that fairly consistently of late a large majority in both parties rate Congress very poorly, but think their own represenatatives are doing a good job and should be reelected.
I think the majority of voters really want Burkean trustees to handle the nitty gritty of government and some low-threshold California type ballot initiative system that let's them vote personally on their hot button issues.
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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Tue Feb 09, 2010 18:26:55

mozartpc27 wrote:But we deride politicians who govern "through opinion polls." And the truth is, if all you want is for your representative to vote with however the majority of his constituency feels, why do we even need the middle person (i.e., congressperson)? Just do everything through ballot questions and direct democracy.

Aside from the republic/democracy thing...

any idea of how much goes into formulating the wording of ballot questions? The fighting, lawers, injunctions, threats, this and that of opposing sides trying to wrangle the question in the most favorable way to their point of view. These people fight for months over one frikkin word that is insignificant to the meaning.

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Postby pacino » Wed Feb 10, 2010 00:22:19

Newt Gingrich is a pretty annoying guy
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Postby VoxOrion » Wed Feb 10, 2010 00:32:24

mozartpc27 wrote:But, as an electorate, we often operate on the "did he do exactly what we wanted?" principle.


Doesn't the incumbent win re-election a ridiculously high percentage of the time? I see 95% on a Google search but that can't be right. I know it's better than most of the time. I don't think the electorate is paying much attention to what their rep is doing unless they do something horribly wrong (and close enough to an election).
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Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Feb 10, 2010 01:43:46

New Rasmussen poll numbers: in PA Toomey 47, Specter 38. Toomey 43, Sestak 35.


I'm not Charlie Cook, but the Democrats should probably either completely fix the economy by November and uncover the fact that Toomey is sleeping with 12 year old boys, or nominate Joe Sestak if they want to have better than a 20% chance of having two Democratic senators from PA come January 2011. Then maybe they'd have a 30% chance.

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Postby pacino » Wed Feb 10, 2010 08:19:48

'Boy we sure hate teh economy. Let's put in a guy who supported all of the ideas we disliked about the Bush administration and this no regulation business, but on steroids! That's the ticket!' we are so smart s m r t
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