CalvinBall wrote:i dont know what those percentages are. and i know they got stuff done. i meant that as more of the public opinion on the matter. who how the republicans have painted it.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at. The general thrust of the Republican message isn't attacking the Democrats for not getting things passed, it's that what they've passed isn't good. I'm not hearing much, "Good job on health care and the stimulus guys, but you really should have gotten cap and trade and card check passed too!"

The percentages are people who Gallup has deemed likely to vote and say they will vote for the Republican in their district compared to the Democrat. It's referred to as the generic ballot, since the actual names of congresspeople and challengers are not given.

538's generic ballot model has the GOP +6.8% and gaining 53 seats. Nate seems to think each point the generic is off by is worth roughly 5-7 seats. So if its really +15% (and I don't think it is obviously), well, you do the math. There's probably a diminishing margin of return on the higher margin for a bunch of reasons, but if we win by 15% nationally, the pick up will be a staggering number.

Now for something other than me fapping to the incoming majority of people determined to ruin America...


Fascinating look at psychological motivational techniques and voter behavior

(says the guy doing reading for his political psychology class tomorrow, which is unfortunately not fascinating. though we did read the article on that New Haven experiment in one class a few weeks ago.)

The fact that they managed to pass legislation that keeps sick children from being denied health insurance and allows me and a bunch of other poor college graduates to stay on our parents' insurance for a while longer is enough to make me vote for the Democrats and vote against the people that were opposed to such reforms.

That's plenty to motivate me to come out and vote Tuesday, not even considering the other reasons why I'm not voting for people like Pat Toomey.

And they managed to pass this legislation despite intractable opposition from just about the entire GOP caucus and some cowardly Blue Dogs.

And it's a damn shame that Pelosi and the much more progressive(I know we're evil people, right Glenn Beck?) House are going to take the brunt of the damage.

Pelosi has been a great Speaker and I would gladly sacrifice Reid if it meant Pelosi keeping the Speaker's gavel.

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:i dont know what those percentages are. and i know they got stuff done. i meant that as more of the public opinion on the matter. who how the republicans have painted it.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at. The general thrust of the Republican message isn't attacking the Democrats for not getting things passed, it's that what they've passed isn't good. I'm not hearing much, "Good job on health care and the stimulus guys, but you really should have gotten cap and trade and card check passed too!"

i just heard polls on meet the press/face the nation this morning that indicated people dont think they did anything. maybe it was that they didnt pass anything good. i dont know. either way how the dems have not been able to frame any part of the debate is crazy.

feingold is going to lose for crying out loud. how is that even possible?

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:i dont know what those percentages are. and i know they got stuff done. i meant that as more of the public opinion on the matter. who how the republicans have painted it.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at. The general thrust of the Republican message isn't attacking the Democrats for not getting things passed, it's that what they've passed isn't good. I'm not hearing much, "Good job on health care and the stimulus guys, but you really should have gotten cap and trade and card check passed too!"

i just heard polls on meet the press/face the nation this morning that indicated people dont think they did anything. maybe it was that they didnt pass anything good. i dont know. either way how the dems have not been able to frame any part of the debate is crazy.

feingold is going to lose for crying out loud. how is that even possible?

I can say that seems to be the opinion in Tennessee. People don't seem to hate Obama, but they think he hasn't gotten anything done. It's no accident that so many people believe it. Dems have done a very poor job framing the debate, despite having the white house pulpit. People are misinformed about TARP, taxes, health care, and many of the other things shaped by this congress.

Monkeyboy wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:i dont know what those percentages are. and i know they got stuff done. i meant that as more of the public opinion on the matter. who how the republicans have painted it.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at. The general thrust of the Republican message isn't attacking the Democrats for not getting things passed, it's that what they've passed isn't good. I'm not hearing much, "Good job on health care and the stimulus guys, but you really should have gotten cap and trade and card check passed too!"

i just heard polls on meet the press/face the nation this morning that indicated people dont think they did anything. maybe it was that they didnt pass anything good. i dont know. either way how the dems have not been able to frame any part of the debate is crazy.

feingold is going to lose for crying out loud. how is that even possible?

I can say that seems to be the opinion in Tennessee. People don't seem to hate Obama, but they think he hasn't gotten anything done. It's no accident that so many people believe it. Dems have done a very poor job framing the debate, despite having the white house pulpit. People are misinformed about TARP, taxes, health care, and many of the other things shaped by this congress.

Probably because they're all running away from the things they've accomplished rather than defending them and giving reasons why they passed the legislation they have. Sestak has done this in PA, and look what happened; he made up a bunch of ground in the polls. It's ridiculous how bad the Democrat strategists are.

yea thats the part i dont get. they just bent over. what bc the republicans are louder or something? what the hell were they afraid of? freaking sissys.

I think there's a big difference between "hasn't gotten anything done" and "hasn't done enough to help the economy". Don't think the average voter would agree with the former, and don't think the average GOPer is campaigning on it either. The latter is something you hear and see though.

Of course the stimulus, which most people dislike and the GOP is running against, helped the economy at least in the short term. And presumably Obama/congressional Dems doing more to 'help' the economy would have meant more stimulus type spending, although ideas like a payroll tax holiday might have been economically helpful and would presumably been politically popular. People's preferences don't always make a whole lot of sense.

When the economy sucks and you're in charge, you tend to pay the price at the polls. Democrats exacerbated their vulnerability by focusing on health care instead of job related issues for a huge part of the Congress. I think most Dems would take the trade (wipeout at polls+health care vs. borderline losing house+no health care).

Feingold took the sage advice of SK790 and CalvinBall and will be lucky to get to break 45% Tuesday.

Joe Manchin's walking around carrying a gun and promising to repeal Obamacare, and he's going to win.

expanding the safety net and investing dollars into infrastructure is what should be done during a downturn in the economy. the former verifiably stimulates teh economy immediately more than anything else that can be done, and it helps people live their lives. if anything, we didnt go far enough on the latter. infrastructure and construction get people working, show the public where money's going, and provides long-term benefits which can help us for 50 years (until we have to do it all over again).

oh well

jerseyhoya wrote:Feingold took the sage advice of SK790 and CalvinBall and will be lucky to get to break 45% Tuesday.

Joe Manchin's walking around carrying a gun and promising to repeal Obamacare, and he's going to win.

I think if the message was more clear nationally it would be a great strategy. Who knows though. The average voter is a moron and the political climate is viscous. A guy who thinks that ending segregation was a bad idea because businesses can do whatever they want is going to be part of a legislative body that is 100 people big. It's crazy.

You don't think it would be better for people to give reasons why they voted legislation through rather than trying to run away from the fact that they supported it?

Thinking about it more, I guess someone in Kentucky hears that and goes "I fucking hate black people too! And the fucking government!" Then votes for Rand Paul.

Or sees Manchin carrying a gun and goes "I fucking love guns. No way the government is taking that shit from me!" Then votes for him as well.

I think it is that simple.

SK790 wrote:You don't think it would be better for people to give reasons why they voted legislation through rather than trying to run away from the fact that they supported it?

I think it is generally beneficial for candidates to talk about things they've done that are popular and ignore the things they've done that are unpopular. If something is unpopular but successful (TARP for example), it might be worth a shot at explaining, but I wouldn't put too much hope in it working. With health care, it's unpopular, most people who disapprove of it disapprove strongly, and people's views are hardened on it. Congressmen who are running on their health care votes in the affirmative do not appear to be doing all that well. Saying that the Dems would be doing better if they were defending what they passed doesn't seem to hold water since the ones who are running away are faring better than the ones embracing the vote.

CalvinBall wrote:Thinking about it more, I guess someone in Kentucky hears that and goes "I #$&! hate black people too! And the #$&! government!" Then votes for Rand Paul.

Or sees Manchin carrying a gun and goes "I #$&! love guns. No way the government is taking that $#@! from me!" Then votes for him as well.

I think it is that simple.

Rand Paul is winning Kentucky, one of the most Republican states in the country, in one of the most Republican election cycles in a century, because of a comment about the Civil Rights Act six months ago that he has backed away from and hasn't been a major campaign issue.

jerseyhoya wrote:Feingold took the sage advice of SK790 and CalvinBall and will be lucky to get to break 45% Tuesday.

Joe Manchin's walking around carrying a gun and promising to repeal Obamacare, and he's going to win.

It's hard when there is only one or two people doing it. If the dems made it more of a national message, maybe Feingold wouldn't be where he is right now.

You may be right about most people not thinking dems did enough to help the economy, but most people I know just don't think they got anything done except healthcare. It's anecdotal, but that's what I see.

jerseyhoya wrote:Feingold took the sage advice of SK790 and CalvinBall and will be lucky to get to break 45% Tuesday.

Joe Manchin's walking around carrying a gun and promising to repeal Obamacare, and he's going to win.

Jerz wrote:I think there's a big difference between "hasn't gotten anything done" and "hasn't done enough to help the economy". Don't think the average voter would agree with the former, and don't think the average GOPer is campaigning on it either. The latter is something you hear and see though.

So please reconcile these 2 for us all.

pacino wrote:expanding the safety net and investing dollars into infrastructure is what should be done during a downturn in the economy. the former verifiably stimulates teh economy immediately more than anything else that can be done, and it helps people live their lives. if anything, we didnt go far enough on the latter. infrastructure and construction get people working, show the public where money's going, and provides long-term benefits which can help us for 50 years (until we have to do it all over again).

oh well

Yeah but FDR tried that and it failed because he was a Communist. People need to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps and go out there and find a minimum wage job at their nearest fast food restaurant. We would be so much better off with 12% unemployment than 9%.

drsmooth wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Feingold took the sage advice of SK790 and CalvinBall and will be lucky to get to break 45% Tuesday.

Joe Manchin's walking around carrying a gun and promising to repeal Obamacare, and he's going to win.

Jerz wrote:I think there's a big difference between "hasn't gotten anything done" and "hasn't done enough to help the economy". Don't think the average voter would agree with the former, and don't think the average GOPer is campaigning on it either. The latter is something you hear and see though.

So please reconcile these 2 for us all.

I'm not sure what you're getting at