TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The left's embrace of primarying Blanche Lincoln (most posts on the front page of kos are about supporting the challenger) reminds me a lot of the GOP primarying Lincoln Chaffee in 2006. The party was on a sinking boat that was also on fire, and our activists were busy focusing on trying to make sure a backup guitarist from the cruise ship band, who was already probably going to be fired from his job, didn't get hired for the next cruise.

I'm no fan of Lincoln, but it's dumb for Kos and Moveon to target her this cycle. The difference between Lincoln and Chafee though is that Chafee's vulnerability was caused by the GOP attacks, while Lincoln was vulnerable long before kos et al could even locate Arkansas on a map.

It was enhanced maybe, but he was vulnerable without the primary challenge. Chaffee only hit 50% twice in polls in 2006, both in February, long before the GOP bottomed out. The primary hurt his chances, but it's at best a 50/50 race without it.

Looks like Whitehouse basically led him from June forward, and the GOP primary wasn't until late August or September. It was a Democratic state with a very good recruit running for the Dems against a guy that really didn't have a broad base of support built up in the state. This wasn't Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe running for reelection in a bad year.

My point anyway wasn't about how this might cost the Dems a seat in Arkansas, but that the money and effort would be much better directed to one of any number other races where acceptable liberal Dems are going to have a hell of a time winning election against Republicans, not targeting a fellow Democrat in a tough seat. Much like in 2006, the money and energy that went to Laffey should have gone to good Republicans like Jim Talent, who lost a damn close race in Missouri, or a bunch of House races that we lost by a whisker.

Chasing moderates out of your party is a bad idea. It does seem increasingly like the 25 years who make these calls are taking themselves way too seriously.

Compromise and negotiating is how you get things done--something Kennedy and Hatch understood, something that Coburn and Kucinich and Bunning don't.

Specter looking better, but still some real ugly numbers in here for him

Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter leads Democratic primary challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 53 - 29 percent and has pushed ahead of Republican Pat Toomey 49 - 42 percent in a general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, up from a 44 - 44 percent tie December 18. In a battle of the unknowns, Toomey leads Sestak 39 - 36 percent with 24 percent undecided.

...

But Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 38 percent Specter does not deserve another term in the Senate.

...

Among Democrats who have some opinion of both Specter and Sestak, Sestak leads 54 - 37 percent.

The Blanche Lincoln people called me yesterday, pretending it was a poll. Of course, I knew it was bs, because there were no demographic questions--just four questions, one on party id, one on most important issue (and not what I thought about the issue) and finally, the "ask"--can Sen. Lincoln count on your support in the primary, and my response was, "not yet".

By the way--on the Dems chances to hold the seat--538's analysis (giving the Dems a 5-3% chance to hold the seat) is premised on Boozman winning the Republican nomination. I'm not so confident about that. Too many people in the race to make that prediction.

We may have to disown Jim Bunning. story

The Kentucky Republican objected Tuesday to a request by Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a fellow Republican, to pass a 30-day extension of jobless benefits and other expired measures. The measure would also extend highway programs and prevent a big cut in Medicare payments to doctors.

TheDude24 wrote:We may have to disown Jim Bunning. story

The Kentucky Republican objected Tuesday to a request by Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a fellow Republican, to pass a 30-day extension of jobless benefits and other expired measures. The measure would also extend highway programs and prevent a big cut in Medicare payments to doctors.

this shit is screwing up my sex life and I'm not even joking

everything old is new again dept:

Brown to run for CA governor

burning question: does he drive a truck (yet)?

Saw something earlier today to put in perspective how long it's been since he first announced he would run for CA-Gov. We were still winding down our presence in Vietnam and a postage stamp cost 8 cents.

jerz, what's up with this?

Tea Party Group Argues for Recall of NJ Senator

isn't this a formula for speedy tea party burnout?

They're looking for new, unique outlets for their anger I guess. No harm in asking. Obviously they'd never succeed, but they aren't going to succeed with 90% of what they try. These people don't seem to be primarily driven by practicality or else they would target more reasonable goals, and be a little less crazy on the whole.

jerseyhoya wrote:They're looking for new, unique outlets for their anger I guess. No harm in asking. Obviously they'd never succeed, but they aren't going to succeed with 90% of what they try. These people don't seem to be primarily driven by practicality or else they would target more reasonable goals, and be a little less crazy on the whole.

I'm really convinced that the tea party movement is the last gasp of baby boomer entitlement rage. First, they claimed that as college students they were an oppressed group of people like Negroes. Then, they decided that polyester suits and open marriage was where it was at, baby. In the 80s, they coked themselves up and sold junk bonds to each other. Then they ruined the internet with their AOL shit. Finally, they trashed the global financial system. And so forth. But it's always the same, as in the old show 30 Something they would ask, "What about my needs?"

And so now we see them, aged, but in denial about it, still chanting nonsense and demanding that once again, the world give them what they want.

The generation that never grew up, that has all the emotional maturity and responsibility of a typical two year old. Fucking dirty hippies.

I know more than a few tea partiers, and they really, really don't follow the demographic you describe. I mean, like not even remotely.

I bet 50% or so of tea partiers were born between 1964 and 1945, the dirty hippie generation.

And probably a lot of the others are later born Ron Paul type dirty hippies who want nothing more than for the rest of the country to listen to them whine and carry on like on that 30 Something show, or its prequel, Friends.

So, you're just guessing...

jerseyhoya wrote:The left's embrace of primarying Blanche Lincoln (most posts on the front page of kos are about supporting the challenger) reminds me a lot of the GOP primarying Lincoln Chaffee in 2006. The party was on a sinking boat that was also on fire, and our activists were busy focusing on trying to make sure a backup guitarist from the cruise ship band, who was already probably going to be fired from his job, didn't get hired for the next cruise, even though he was the best they could reasonably hope for getting.

Analogy sucks I know. I was trying to be very illustrative.

I read this last night and wanted to comment--I actually love the analogy--but owing to my having a real job and all, haven't had the chance until roughly now.

Your analysis is rational of course, but it strikes as incorrect precisely because political activists aren't rational. If you're a pissed-off/disappointed/de-motivated liberal Democrat in 2010, I suspect you don't see a choice between supporting Bill Halter and, say, Kirsten Gillibrand; it's between Halter and buying a few bottles of good Scotch in which you can drawn your despair at how disappointed you are in the Democratic congressional majorities. Likewise, I'm guessing, Republicans four years ago: saving Jim Talent was the smarter investment, but sticking it to that sniveling RINO Chafee was the emotionally gratifying expenditure.

I'm pretty sure spite is the strongest political motivator. As usual, the Republicans (or George Wallace, I guess) got there first, but it's universal now.

Re: Menendez/Tea Party it seems like it would be really, really tough to get the 1.3 million signatures to even get the recall question on the ballot. I'm not a fan of Menendez but it seems pretty ridiculous to try to recall somebody just because you disagree with their votes. Isn't there a recall system called "Election Day" for that sort of thing?

Rick Perry is really crushing Hutchison. Up 52-31-17.

I predicted 48-31-21 to a friend this morning. Looks like he'll avoid the run off. She's already conceded to him.

VoxOrion wrote:So, you're just guessing...

Yeah, but it's an educated guess, because, well, you know....

Maybe I'm all confused, and it's true I haven't been paying attention much to Texas politics, but I seem to recall a few years ago, Perry catching flak from the right. I thought for awhile anyway he used to be pro-amnesty, and I know he caught some heat for requiring Texas girls to get the HPV Vaccine.

And then there's the Pan American Highway thing (aka the Texas Tollways project).

traderdave wrote:Re: Menendez/Tea Party it seems like it would be really, really tough to get the 1.3 million signatures to even get the recall question on the ballot. I'm not a fan of Menendez but it seems pretty ridiculous to try to recall somebody just because you disagree with their votes. Isn't there a recall system called "Election Day" for that sort of thing?

yes, but we're talking about a mob that behaves as if somebody tea'ed in their wheaties