Terrorist Fist Bumps All Around (politics) Thread

Postby Werthless » Mon Jun 23, 2008 16:04:19

jerseyhoya wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:What should it say?


Uh, he shouldn't be using a mock presidential seal on his rostrum.


What in the hell's a rostrum, and who does it offend when he uses it?

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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Jun 23, 2008 16:09:17

Werthless wrote:What's the best place to see money raised to date? From CNN, I see:

Obama: 272M
McCain: 100M
DNC: 71M
RNC: 111M


Cash on hand:
Obama: 47M
McCain: 22M
DNC: 1.6M
RNC: 38M

Are there more up to date figures?


http://www.fec.gov

Org/Raised/Spent/COH/Debts/As of
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE $167,675,965 $117,276,180 $53,508,001 $0 05/31/2008
DNC SERVICES CORPORATION/DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE $82,376,743 $82,121,157 $3,965,886 $6,306 05/31/2008
MCCAIN, JOHN S. PRES $122,141,265 $86,652,284 $35,961,435 $1,268,973 05/31/2008
OBAMA, BARACK PRES $295,515,889 $252,368,556 $43,147,333 $304,162 05/31/2008

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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Jun 23, 2008 16:11:28

Werthless wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:What should it say?


Uh, he shouldn't be using a mock presidential seal on his rostrum.


What in the hell's a rostrum, and who does it offend when he uses it?


MSNBC's First Read from this morning:

And then there was that faux presidential seal that was affixed to Obama’s rostrum on Friday, which got mocked from all quarters. What a bizarre and dumb idea. Why do we have a feeling we won't see this again? It really feeds the arrogance narrative.


Additionally, it got the boot

CNN

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Postby dajafi » Mon Jun 23, 2008 17:13:19

George Will has an interesting column on Obama's "libertarian paternalism." I wouldn't have come up with that phrasing (though it works well as a tribute to George Carlin, I guess), but the concept--essentially, changing the default options--is part of what I like about the guy as a policy thinker.


Thaler and Sunstein correctly assume that people are busy, their lives are increasingly complicated and they have neither time nor inclination nor, often, the ability to think through even all important choices, from health care plans to retirement options. Therefore the framing of choices matters, particularly using the enormous power of the default option—the option that goes into effect if the chooser chooses not to make a choice.

For example, Obama advocates that where defined contribution savings plans such as 401(k)s are offered, there should be automatic—note well: not mandatory—enrollment by employers of new workers. Contributions to such plans are tax deductible, taxes are deferred on the accumulating money and often employers match part of the employees' contributions. What is at stake is, essentially, free money. Yet when an employee must affirmatively opt in, participation falls far below 100 percent. Obama's proposal would simply change the default option: Employees are in unless they choose to opt out, which they would be free to do.

Abundant evidence indicates that most would not, which would serve the national interest because Americans' savings rate is a disgrace. In fact, in 2005 it turned negative, and if insufficient saving persists, that inevitably will mean bigger government to provide for people who have not provided for themselves.




Also, Joe Klein has a short item suggesting that McCain is frustrated because his top three VP choices--Ridge, Jeb!, and Mel Martinez--are all nonstarters for various reasons (Ridge is pro-choice, Jeb! is a Bush, Martinez was born in Cuba). Presumably Joe Lieberquisling is out for a similar reason.

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Postby Laexile » Mon Jun 23, 2008 17:29:47

The Red Tornado wrote:I was in South Carolina this weekend- my wife's relatives could be considered reasonably intelligent people. Yet they believe that Obama is Muslim, Michele called people whitey and whatever stupid nonsense theyve been hearing from their friends in email. The not so subtle racism down in the south is alive and well in some areas. I even saw a billboard directing people to a website about how Obama is worse than Benedict Arnold. (wish I remember the site)

People believe it when Obama says McCain has changed his positions to move to the right even though the independent National Journal shows he's moved to the left. People believe that McCain has 527 allies that are smearing Barack Obama. People believe that John McCain opposes funding for levees in the Midwest. People believe that John McCain supports the Enron loophole. Obama told America all these things this weekend. People are going to believe what they believe.
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Postby Werthless » Mon Jun 23, 2008 17:35:56

dajafi wrote:George Will has an interesting column on Obama's "libertarian paternalism." I wouldn't have come up with that phrasing (though it works well as a tribute to George Carlin, I guess), but the concept--essentially, changing the default options--is part of what I like about the guy as a policy thinker.

Is this something that people oppose, the opt-out instead of opt-in for 401K plans? I'm just curious. I found the article odd, since it indirectly attributed some behavioral finance findings to Obama (Barack Obama is a "choice architect" aiming to implement "libertarian paternalism.") without citing how Obama has tried to solve these problems in the past. Has he pushed for a change in the transplant and 401K signup procedures?

I don't know, I would have liked to read more about what Obama has said about it, as opposed to his former classmates. The undertitle makes the relationship sound even more dubious.
Dare we hope that Barack Obama shares the 'libertarian paternalism' of two of his former University of Chicago colleagues?

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Postby Laexile » Mon Jun 23, 2008 17:37:47

dajafi wrote:Also, Joe Klein has a short item suggesting that McCain is frustrated because his top three VP choices--Ridge, Jeb!, and Mel Martinez--are all nonstarters for various reasons (Ridge is pro-choice, Jeb! is a Bush, Martinez was born in Cuba). Presumably Joe Lieberquisling is out for a similar reason.

Republican circles? He's known Mel Martinez for years. Of course he knows he was born in Cuba. He hates the Bushes and it's been obvious to anyone with half a brain that a Bush couldn't get elected this year. Such a list makes John McCain look like a complete idiot. It baffles the mind that McCain would even bring up either name. Floating this out makes him look like a fool. This sounds like names floated as the Democratic wish list.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Jun 23, 2008 17:44:29

Werthless wrote:
dajafi wrote:George Will has an interesting column on Obama's "libertarian paternalism." I wouldn't have come up with that phrasing (though it works well as a tribute to George Carlin, I guess), but the concept--essentially, changing the default options--is part of what I like about the guy as a policy thinker.

Is this something that people oppose, the opt-out instead of opt-in for 401K plans? I'm just curious. I found the article odd, since it indirectly attributed some behavioral finance findings to Obama (Barack Obama is a "choice architect" aiming to implement "libertarian paternalism.") without citing how Obama has tried to solve these problems in the past. Has he pushed for a change in the transplant and 401K signup procedures?

I don't know, I would have liked to read more about what Obama has said about it, as opposed to his former classmates. The undertitle makes the relationship sound even more dubious.
Dare we hope that Barack Obama shares the 'libertarian paternalism' of two of his former University of Chicago colleagues?


I actually am probably going to get that book. Nudge, I think it's called. I almost got it in my last book order. Looked really interesting in the review I read of it. And they aren't classmates of his, Obama used to teach at U of Chicago.

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Postby drsmooth » Mon Jun 23, 2008 18:51:44

dajafi wrote:George Will has an interesting column on Obama's "libertarian paternalism." I wouldn't have come up with that phrasing (though it works well as a tribute to George Carlin, I guess), but the concept--essentially, changing the default options--is part of what I like about the guy as a policy thinker.


Thaler and Sunstein correctly assume that people are busy, their lives are increasingly complicated and they have neither time nor inclination nor, often, the ability to think through even all important choices, from health care plans to retirement options. Therefore the framing of choices matters, particularly using the enormous power of the default option—the option that goes into effect if the chooser chooses not to make a choice.

For example, Obama advocates that where defined contribution savings plans such as 401(k)s are offered, there should be automatic—note well: not mandatory—enrollment by employers of new workers. Contributions to such plans are tax deductible, taxes are deferred on the accumulating money and often employers match part of the employees' contributions. What is at stake is, essentially, free money. Yet when an employee must affirmatively opt in, participation falls far below 100 percent. Obama's proposal would simply change the default option: Employees are in unless they choose to opt out, which they would be free to do.

Abundant evidence indicates that most would not, which would serve the national interest because Americans' savings rate is a disgrace. In fact, in 2005 it turned negative, and if insufficient saving persists, that inevitably will mean bigger government to provide for people who have not provided for themselves.


Thaler/Tversky/Kahneman/behavioral econ junkie here. While Will's review is, I suspect, a tad reductionist, his 401k example probably captures the gist accurately.

Thaler has already taken a half-hearted swipe at emulating Nobel economist Bill Sharpe's attempt to make personal, private-sector financial hay out of abstruse economic theorizing via application to 401k plans. Sharpe's 'applied Monte Carlo simulation' tools at Financial Engines were & are waaay cool stuff.

Thaler's entry was entitled "Save More Tomorrow". I don't believe he's had as much success as Sharpe, who hasn't nudged Gates off the top of personal wealth mountain either.

It's absurd of course to imagine that gov't programs, and decision-leading initiatives in any other social group, have not employed like strategies/tactics, practically as long as people have been around. Certainly no political party holds or has held a monopoly on the concepts.
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Postby Woody » Mon Jun 23, 2008 22:15:10

you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Tue Jun 24, 2008 00:38:59

Werthless wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Uh, he shouldn't be using a mock presidential seal on his rostrum.


What in the hell's a rostrum...

I initially misread the word and had a Bill Clinton flashback.
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Postby VoxOrion » Tue Jun 24, 2008 08:29:22

On a recent trip to Chicago we ran into a bunch of limosine liberal do-gooder types (gray pony tails, beards, you name it) that beat our ear off for a couple of hours - nice people, really, but very "liberal intellectual elite" (unlike any of you). They're all into Obama and started campaigning on us. I didn't want to argue, so I deflected when asked who I was voting for in November, my travelling companion, however, gleefully announced he was an Obamakin and became the belle of the ball. For his solidarity, he received an Obama pin (from a new graying pony tail and beard type who was wearing an Obama hat, t-shirt, and button - he was presumably hanging around Midway evangelizing while he waited for his wife's plane to land).

Later, at the rental car company, the dude saw my friend holding the Obama pin and upgraded us to a GMC Envoy.

So, in the end, Obama did that for me.
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Postby drsmooth » Tue Jun 24, 2008 08:52:42

VoxOrion wrote:
So, in the end, Obama did that for me.


but wait - there's more!
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Jun 24, 2008 09:19:54

Big push the last few days off this article in the NYT by every conservative op-ed columnist in the country.

David Brooks turned in this effort today attempting to sufficiently bash Bush in the process to sway people.

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Postby Monkeyboy » Tue Jun 24, 2008 09:57:29

VoxOrion wrote:On a recent trip to Chicago we ran into a bunch of limosine liberal do-gooder types (gray pony tails, beards, you name it) that beat our ear off for a couple of hours - nice people, really, but very "liberal intellectual elite" (unlike any of you). They're all into Obama and started campaigning on us. I didn't want to argue, so I deflected when asked who I was voting for in November, my travelling companion, however, gleefully announced he was an Obamakin and became the belle of the ball. For his solidarity, he received an Obama pin (from a new graying pony tail and beard type who was wearing an Obama hat, t-shirt, and button - he was presumably hanging around Midway evangelizing while he waited for his wife's plane to land).

Later, at the rental car company, the dude saw my friend holding the Obama pin and upgraded us to a GMC Envoy.

So, in the end, Obama did that for me.


That's funny because I ran into a bunch of McCain supporters (you know the type, redneck bible beaters afraid of their own shadow), but they wouldn't admit it at first out of embarrassment, I assume. Once they fessed up, I asked them what they liked most about McCain and they said they liked how McCain was going to take it to those Shia towelheads who brought down the twin towers. I pointed out that those were sunnis and they said that's what they meant, they just got confused because it's been a long campaign and they haven't had their naps. I asked what else they liked and they listed a bunch of McCain's positions, but they got them all backwards, I assume because McCain himself can't seem to recall his positions on things. When I pointed out they got his positions wrong, they said they were tired because it was a long campaign and they forgot to take their medication. When I asked them for a McCain pin, they said they didn't have any because the campaign is in trouble right now for illegally flipflopping on campign finance and, besides, my skin looked a little too dark for their liking.

So that's what McCain has done for me.... nothing.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:13:41

Bahaha

Not funny

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Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:54:49

jerseyhoya wrote:Big push the last few days off this article in the NYT by every conservative op-ed columnist in the country.

David Brooks turned in this effort today attempting to sufficiently bash Bush in the process to sway people.


My take on the NY Times article is that in a couple of years, we might be able to reduce our troop presence in Iraq to say 40,000.

I know it's a campaign, and that means that everything gets even stupider than usual. However, I think any view on Iraq needs to acknowledge that as dumb as the decision to initially invade may have been, that ship sailed. We need to focus on what to do now.

Staying in Iraq needs to be justified by a solid cost/benefit analysis. The decision to leave Iraq needs to account for the likely chaos that will ensue once the US departs.

There are steps in between of course. The "leave the cities" idea--maintain a presence outside densely populated areas might actually avoid the problems inherent in staying forever (no one wants that, and even if the violence is diminishing, the political situation seems pretty crappy) and leaving now.
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Postby drsmooth » Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:00:03

jerseyhoya wrote:Big push the last few days off this article in the NYT by every conservative op-ed columnist in the country.

David Brooks turned in this effort today attempting to sufficiently bash Bush in the process to sway people.


you're not making sense

Brooks isn't bashing Bush in that piece

what are the con op-ed guys saying about this, jersey?

"see, see? once the admin stopped being horribly stupid, it started doing some things right - YEARS after it should have"?


or is it merely more lame whining about the Alex ad?

of course there may still be a few bumps in the road:

in Mosul, the celebrations over the performance of the Iraqis who fought there have glossed over the tremendous — but hidden — role played by American Special Operations forces to clear out the toughest enemy fighters before the Iraqi soldiers arrived in full. “It is underreported how much the secret guys did to set the conditions for the Iraqi Army to go in and do what they did,” the official said.

What remains to be seen is whether the Iraqi government can capitalize on the operational successes with concrete steps that improve the lives of people in the three areas, like basic municipal services and economic opportunities. “The fear is unrealistic expectations,” the American defense official said. “Services do take time.”


Maybe you can clarify; it seems like the gossamer kind of thing only Bill Kristol can stand on.

In Terror & Consent Bobbitt is by turns precious and tedious about the 'right' military strategy/tactics for terror wars. Somewhere he's applauding (golfclaps) bushco's recent Iraq successes, & hoping the results lead to more robust reimagining of US strategy vs terror.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:19:55

He calls him stubborn, outrageously self confident, secretive, and says he made "such bad calls" at the start of the war. I'd say that's bashing him. He also says those traits helped him make the right decision re: the surge.

I think the narrative the right is going with is close to the first one you mentioned there. They're conceding Bush effed up, saying McCain has been right all along about the surge, and Obama is showing an aversion to acknowledging the changing facts on the ground.

Also, I don't think anyone thinks we're free and clear or that it's all peachy over there. That part you excerpted talked about how instrumental the US special forces have been in the turn around. The growing competence of the Iraqi army is vital and all, but they wouldn't be executing this turnaround without the Americans on the ground there. Which is why Obama's reluctance to speak to the changing circumstances and perhaps reexamine his position is coming under scrutiny.

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Postby dajafi » Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:38:22

“Our political system is weak, the terrorists and former regime members are sparing no effort to overthrow the system, and neighboring countries have their own ambitions,” Mr. Adeeb said.


I think everyone agrees that "security" is better. The likelihood was always that if you sent in more American military, violence eventually would decrease. But the whole point of the surge as I understood it was to create conditions under which Iraq could resolve its political problems and start making progress as an independent nation-state that might not be Canada in terms of touchy-feely social democracy but would represent some kind of advance over the Ba'athists.

The Bush administration, mostly peopled by belligerent sociopaths who were too personally cowardly to engage in war but too temperamentally warlike to successfully pursue diplomacy, is almost perfectly ill-suited to help Iraq resolve its very thorny political problems. Worse, both the leave-now and stay-forever crowds here--including, I'm sad to say, some/most of us in this thread--see the whole thing mainly through the prism of domestic politics and who wins/who loses (like baseball!), rather than how to support the Iraqi people.

Personally I wonder if it isn't time to revisit the Biden federation idea, at least as a way of consolidating gains and drawing in more outside help from the (anti-Iran portion of the) Arab world and NATO. Divvy it up, get the strongest possible security guarantees and start bringing our soldiers home.

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