Politics: Sorta Black guy v Sorta Old Guy

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:23:10

What is that? Klingon?

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:24:00

Here's a graph of unemployment rates. Relax.

by **The Dude** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:25:18

We're not all tenured, bub

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:27:04

The Dude wrote:We're not all tenured, bub

The point is things historically aren't as bad as breathless media hysteria is making out.

Remember, too, that tenure does not guarantee that my wages will maintain their purchasing power.

by **The Dude** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:29:24

I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.

Plus, my job doesn't guarantee purchasing power (and that's when they do actually remember to include my raise), plus I can be shitcanned any minute (like the 60+ a couple weeks ago). Then it's me and 100 people all interviewing for the same job.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:31:13

Oh, I don't think it's the end of the world or anything. Kick in the balls for McCain's chances in November though. The unemployment rate is a dumb measurement anyway.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:31:41

The Dude wrote:I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.

Plus, my job doesn't guarantee purchasing power (and that's when they do actually remember to include my raise), plus I can be $#@! any minute (like the 60+ a couple weeks ago). Then it's me and 100 people all interviewing for the same job.

We don't have the highest unemployment rate in 20 years.

by **Monkeyboy** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:32:17

Houshphandzadeh wrote:What is that? Klingon?

Close, it's Orwell, from his book 1984.

Basically Big Brother, in this case played by LaExile, teaches us that things are the opposite of what common sense would dictate. Over time, people start to believe the propaganda -- unless you have the right tinfoil hat, of course.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:32:35

The Dude wrote:I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.
.

Except it's not even close to the highest unemployment rate in the last 20 years. Indeed, at one time, 5% unemployment was considered "full employment."

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:33:28

Monkeyboy wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:What is that? Klingon?

Close, it's Orwell, from his book 1984.

Basically Big Brother, in this case played by LaExile, teaches us that things are the opposite of what common sense would dictate. Over time, people start to believe the propaganda -- unless you have the right tinfoil hat, of course.

Damn, man. I should just stop reading books if I can't remember them only what like three years later.

by **TenuredVulture** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:33:55

jerseyhoya wrote:Oh, I don't think it's the end of the world or anything. Kick in the balls for McCain's chances in November though. The unemployment rate is a dumb measurement anyway.

You seem really pessimistic about McCain's chances.

by **The Dude** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:36:28

TenuredVulture wrote:
The Dude wrote:I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.
.

Except it's not even close to the highest unemployment rate in the last 20 years. Indeed, at one time, 5% unemployment was considered "full employment."

Sorry, meant highest spike in a couple months (over the last 20 or so years).

by **pacino** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:36:59

Laexile wrote:
pacino wrote:
Laexile wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
General election ad numero uno

McCain doesn't want America to be at war any more than Obama does. McCain thinks staying in Iraq will, in the long run, prevent more loss of life. The McCain campaign has allowed the Democrats to position them as in favor of war. They appear to have woken up to that realization. Obama tells America in speech that he'll bring the troops home, give everyone healthcare, and get them jobs. He will change America into whatever his supporters want it changed into. When McCain does his "straight talk" he gives America lowers expectations about what he'll accomplish. The guy who promises less doesn't win.

There was a war in Iraq with significant aftermath.

McCain voted for said war.

McCain doesn't want to leave Iraq for the forseeable future.

McCain =/ for the war?

I realize that you're just trying to twist something here. So Obama wants to increase the number of US troops fighting the Taliban. Does that make him pro-war?

John McCain's goal of staying is to prevent deaths. I can't seriously think that people believe he wants more people to die. He wants hostilities to end as soon as possible.

John McCain would like to leave Iraq tomorrow. He believes that if we leave Iraq before things are stabilized more people will die than if we stay. If the US withdraws from Iraq there may be a Sunni-Shiite war, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. Iran is already increasing its influence in other countries and is already arming Shiite militias. Iran will use a US exit to expand their role in the Middle East. To counter that Sunnis will join al Quaeda and flow into the area to fight. In the long run, more powerful Islamic militants on both sides could result in more American deaths worldwide.

Bush got us into a war that was horribly mismanaged and has created more Islamic militants than existed before. Even though Obama would never have done that he still would need to run this country in that world. The question before the next President is how to stabilize the Middle East and prevent American and Iraqi deaths. McCain thinks he can do that by staying. Obama believes he can do that by leaving.

Only one of us is spinning. There's no reason McCain shouldn't say he's for the war. War is a mess, all agree. Doesn't mean he can say he's not for it because he is aware of that fact. You seem to be arguing that he's not for an occupation, but needs to stay. Isn't that being for occupation? You can argue that's a good thing, not a bad one, but don't deny he's for it. We're making sure our little experiment will work. That's all.

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:40:56

TenuredVulture wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Oh, I don't think it's the end of the world or anything. Kick in the balls for McCain's chances in November though. The unemployment rate is a dumb measurement anyway.

You seem really pessimistic about McCain's chances.

Some days yes, others no.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:45:46

jerseyhoya wrote:
The Dude wrote:Oil up to $138/barrel

And unemployment jumped from 5.0% to 5.5%.

And the Dow is down more than 300 points.

These are all related (I think). And not good.

Today's $11 jump combined with yesterday's substantial jump... price at the pump will likely increase around 50 cents in the next 5-10 days. I wouldn't be surprised with $5+ gas by July 4.

Biggest jump in unemployment in 22 years. With the way oil/gas is going, I'd expect unemployment to go up more, particulary in the "non-essentials" sectors (restaurant, entertainment, etc.) as people will have less money in their pockets for non-essentials (higher gas = higher cost of goods). The transportation sector (trucking/freight, airlines, etc.) will likely feel pain to.

The European Central Bank will be raising their interest rate within the coming weeks, leading to more investment in Euros instead of US dollars, and a likely decline in the value of the US dollar.

Yep. Ain't good.

by **drsmooth** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:47:32

jerseyhoya wrote:I have another year to learn what it actually is.

I make the odds 90/10 against

by **dajafi** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:47:34

jerseyhoya wrote:The unemployment rate is a dumb measurement anyway.

That's true, but as a gauge of how the economy is doing it's no worse than the Dow and probably better.

Probably the truth is you need a bunch of measures to get a real sense, plus historic context as TV notes. Bottom line is that things are bad, but they've been worse--McCain's problem is both the perception that things are really awful, and the fact that this perception is strongest among the people whom he wants to win over by calling Obama's patriotism, cultural quirks, etc into question. Tough to do that when you've pledged to continue the policies that have them feeling so anxious.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:48:51

The Dude wrote:I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.

zOMG! If you're planning a wedding, book your DJ early as there's an apparent DJ shortage!!!

:mrgreen:

by **jerseyhoya** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:51:23

dajafi wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:The unemployment rate is a dumb measurement anyway.

That's true, but as a gauge of how the economy is doing it's no worse than the Dow and probably better.

Probably the truth is you need a bunch of measures to get a real sense, plus historic context as TV notes. Bottom line is that things are bad, but they've been worse--McCain's problem is both the perception that things are really awful, and the fact that this perception is strongest among the people whom he wants to win over by calling Obama's patriotism, cultural quirks, etc into question. Tough to do that when you've pledged to continue the policies that have them feeling so anxious.

I think this is pretty much dead on. And that's why today is one of the pessimistic days about McCain's chances.

by **drsmooth** » Fri Jun 06, 2008 15:52:48

TenuredVulture wrote:
The Dude wrote:I wouldn't call the media breathless, but having the highest unemployment rate in 20 years is pretty significant, especially with oil prices and DJ problems.
.

Except it's not even close to the highest unemployment rate in the last 20 years. Indeed, at one time, 5% unemployment was considered "full employment."

longitudinal comparisons of unemployment figures was far from science, and the situation has worsened in the last 20 yrs.

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