TomatoPie wrote:You cite some valid points about the Hillary Hate out there, but you may be viewing this thru East Coast Liberal lenses.

.....filler.......


The hesitation to push Obama over the top -- again, very doable TODAY -- stems from the entirely pragmatic notion that Hillary can win in November and Obama cannot.

I'll say it again:

Obama has mobilized a lot of new voters. Younger people, people of color, etc... the likelyhood that a Hilary supporter would vote for McCain over Obama, especially a true Dem, not and indy on the fence type -- someone who really wants the Republicans out, is more likely to vote for Obama to that end, than a newly engaged/enfranchised voter who got excited about Obama -- showing up to hold their nose -- with DC-as-usual, to vote for Hilary.

So Hilary can win, Obama cannot -- makes no sense.

Perhaps neither can win? That's another matter. Perhaps it will be stolen again in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico and via Diebold etc... but I think it's reasonable to suggest that it's more likely established voters of Hilary will STILL vote for Obama, than newly registered voters in the excitement of Obama, STILL showing up for Hilary. Especially, if she wins by SuperD's which would be very ugly for the party and convention....

Not that Webb doesn't have other stuff in his background, but has there been a ticket in the modern era with so little national or statewide electoral experience?

Eisenhower/Nixon?

dajafi wrote:TP, you don't think those people recognize that DC isn't working very well for them?

Everyone who is not where they want to be, financially, blames the government.

So while they may think the DC owes them, my sense is that by and large, they don't see Obama as the guy who can deliver for them. Hillary is going to Make The Oil Companies Pay The Gas Tax!

You must live in a very insular world not to sense how alien Barack Hussein Obama is to middle Americans.

People fear him for all sorts of reasons.

This is small and anecdotal, but worth a mention. Very good friends, Republicans of Lebanese background who voted for Bush (and regret it), changed registration to Democrat in order to vote against Barack. They are no fans of Hillary, but they feel the Obama will advance a Muslim agenda. These people are physicians and Christians who fled Lebanon in the 70s.

The union member in Altoona finds Obama fearful for entirely different reasons, of course.

At no point did you feel it might be important to disabuse these MD idiots from their opinion?

Seriously, if you want to support a Republican because he's down with your position on taxes or national security, knock yourself out. But for gosh sakes, graduate educated people fearful that Obama is a Muslim/will advance their agenda? Disgraceful.

TomatoPie wrote:The union member in Altoona finds Obama fearful for entirely different reasons, of course.

Fuck him.

Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer...WHO?

Hmm...former Gov of ND. Don't remember him coming in. Or Venaman (sp) leaving. Or that Mike Johanns came in between. Go me.

jerseyhoya wrote:Not that Webb doesn't have other stuff in his background, but has there been a ticket in the modern era with so little national or statewide electoral experience?

Eisenhower/Nixon?

Obama's been an elected official for 12 years. Webb not so much, of course, but again, I'd argue that's a plus given the line of argument they'd make. It's hard to be plausibly against a dysfunctional system when you're thoroughly identified with that system.

Maybe I'm a little disoriented by unaccustomed success. The blogger hilzoy (Obsidian Wings), whom I think is in her 40s or 50s, pointed out the other day that Obama will be the first candidate she's ever supported in the primaries to win the nomination. This is true for me too. Bruce Babbitt, Bob Kerrey, Bill Bradley, Wes Clark... it's nice to know I'm not a fatal hex, some Bob Shrum on the sidelines.

jeff2sf wrote:At no point did you feel it might be important to disabuse these MD idiots from their opinion?

Seriously, if you want to support a Republican because he's down with your position on taxes or national security, knock yourself out. But for gosh sakes, graduate educated people fearful that Obama is a Muslim/will advance their agenda? Disgraceful.

I've not yet had the chance to discuss with them - Mrs TP relayed their views to me.

I am really curious as to why they feel this way. They are very thoughtful people. They have been very critical of Bush and US involvement in the Middle East. They likely have an axe to grind, as one MD's grandfather was murdered by islamists in the 70s. But that does not at all explain why they conclude that Obama would advance a Muslim agenda.

drsmooth wrote:

TomatoPie wrote:You cite some valid points about the Hillary Hate out there, but you may be viewing this thru East Coast Liberal lenses.

.....filler.......


The hesitation to push Obama over the top -- again, very doable TODAY -- stems from the entirely pragmatic notion that Hillary can win in November and Obama cannot.

Unless you're merely cutting & pasting, it seems to me almost to defy physical laws that someone sentient enough to compose the mostly grammatically correct sentences you've posted could actually subscribe to their content.

Unless you're merely cutting & pasting.

Google it. see what matches you find.

TomatoPie wrote:

dajafi wrote:TP, you don't think those people recognize that DC isn't working very well for them?

Everyone who is not where they want to be, financially, blames the government.

So while they may think the DC owes them, my sense is that by and large, they don't see Obama as the guy who can deliver for them. Hillary is going to Make The Oil Companies Pay The Gas Tax!

You must live in a very insular world not to sense how alien Barack Hussein Obama is to middle Americans.

People fear him for all sorts of reasons.

This is small and anecdotal, but worth a mention. Very good friends, Republicans of Lebanese background who voted for Bush (and regret it), changed registration to Democrat in order to vote against Barack. They are no fans of Hillary, but they feel the Obama will advance a Muslim agenda. These people are physicians and Christians who fled Lebanon in the 70s.

The union member in Altoona finds Obama fearful for entirely different reasons, of course.

The people you use in your anecdote are the worst sample to make this point with. People that come from foreign lands that have often been under seige, political hot-beds... Lebanon was one of hte most western of the middle-east for a time... and I'm sure any professional who emigrated from that memory of time and place, these are the people that come here and reject multi-culturalism, want to assimilate and hype the American Dream jargon. I would expect people like this, to not think, but react -- for them to support Bush was ignorant and naive, and the statements they make about Obama are just silly and woefully uninformed. If your point, is that we have a lot of emotional people voting with a great lack of information and perspective -- sure we do. Why does Obama come out worse for this? The House of Clinton has lots of baggage. You still haven't answered why newly engaged participants to the process, because of OBama, will stick around and participate and vote for Hilary? I know most Hilary traditional Democracts who are concerned by the abuses of the House of Bush, will vote for whichever Democrat is there, even Obama.

TomatoPie wrote:That appeal does not extend to the union guys drinking a shot and a beer. You know, those who cling to God 'n' Guns. Once you get 10 miles west of the White Dog Cafe, there's lots more of them than you.

Like David Shuster, the danger for you and the Dem machine is to see Obama thru your eyes only. To assume that the only folks who don't like Obama are racists who vote GOP anyhow.

your desolation over the impending conclusion of the Democrats' eleventy-five state White Noise Tour is beginning to sully your reasoning capacity.

Let's take the lazy way, and build on your Defoe-ian cartoon of those who occupy Obama's 'danger zone'. Surely, one might draw from your portrait, they're so dullwitted that a few months of soaking in a relatively consistent set of slogans from 'the new coach of their favorite political ball club' will be sufficient to lull a winning margin of them to pull the Obama lever come November?

Philly the Kid wrote: You still haven't answered why newly engaged participants to the process, because of OBama, will stick around and participate and vote for Hilary?

Because Obama will still be on the ticket.

Still historic.

Included.

Destined for the top.

drsmooth wrote:

TomatoPie wrote:That appeal does not extend to the union guys drinking a shot and a beer. You know, those who cling to God 'n' Guns. Once you get 10 miles west of the White Dog Cafe, there's lots more of them than you.

Like David Shuster, the danger for you and the Dem machine is to see Obama thru your eyes only. To assume that the only folks who don't like Obama are racists who vote GOP anyhow.

your desolation over the impending conclusion of the Democrats' eleventy-five state White Noise Tour is beginning to sully your reasoning capacity.

Let's take the lazy way, and build on your Defoe-ian cartoon of those who occupy Obama's 'danger zone'. Surely, one might draw from your portrait, they're so dullwitted that a few months of soaking in a relatively consistent set of slogans from 'the new coach of their favorite political ball club' will be sufficient to lull a winning margin of them to pull the Obama lever come November?

I don't know what that means, but it was fun to read!

The argument TP is making, I think, is that racism/cultural alienation/call it what you will is a stronger determinant of voting than all policy arguments (starting with the lousy state of the economy, which political scientists generally regard as determinative, but not ending there), plus whatever degree of Bushian bad vibes can be attached to McCain through the efforts of a sustained, large, well-funded and tactically proficient Obama team.

This might prove to be the case, but I don't think it's the way to bet.

dajafi wrote:The argument TP is making, I think, is that racism/cultural alienation/call it what you will is a stronger determinant of voting than all policy arguments (starting with the lousy state of the economy, which political scientists generally regard as determinative, but not ending there), plus whatever degree of Bushian bad vibes can be attached to McCain through the efforts of a sustained, large, well-funded and tactically proficient Obama team.

This might prove to be the case, but I don't think it's the way to bet.

Moreover, I don't think it's the way for Obama to play it. I meant it when I said "fuck em." I'd much rather Obama figure out ways to get new voters registered than waste time trying to change the minds of or comfort bigots and idiots.

And I don't buy the notion that these people who are "afraid" of Obama would feel better if Hillary were with him. They would vote for McCain or stay home.

Obama should double down, not lie down.

There may be some challenge in maintaining the Democratic coalition, but that's nothing new.

But right now, the Republican coalition is the more fractious one. You've got people over on Redstate still going on about Fred Thompson--that'd be like Democrats going on about Dick Gephardt.

The movement conservatives are not enthusiastic about McCain, and it's hard to see how that's going to change.

Then the Democrats only need to do two things--first, tie McCain to Bush, which won't be hard. And not just with the war stuff. He's vulnerable on the right with his position on immigration.

So, the second piece of the Democratic strategy will involve tactics to suppress the conservative vote--run 527 ads on McCain's immigration position in places like Colorado in the weeks before the election.

For whatever reason, the right wing elites don't like or trust McCain. And true believers--the real ideologues--don't look at one election. They are looking at history, and like good Trotskyites, they are content to wait for history to vindicate them.

Like all elections, this one will turn on how much of the base turns out, and how the middle gets divided.

The Dems have a huge leg up in terms of a motivated base.

The fight for the middle is where I think Hillary really tops Obama. She ran toward the middle, thinking the primary process was really just a coronation.

Obama, once you past the slogans, is awfully far left to win a general election.

TomatoPie wrote:

dajafi wrote:TP, you don't think those people recognize that DC isn't working very well for them?

Everyone who is not where they want to be, financially, blames the government.

So while they may think the DC owes them, my sense is that by and large, they don't see Obama as the guy who can deliver for them. Hillary is going to Make The Oil Companies Pay The Gas Tax!

You must live in a very insular world not to sense how alien Barack Hussein Obama is to middle Americans.

People fear him for all sorts of reasons.

This is small and anecdotal, but worth a mention. Very good friends, Republicans of Lebanese background who voted for Bush (and regret it), changed registration to Democrat in order to vote against Barack. They are no fans of Hillary, but they feel the Obama will advance a Muslim agenda. These people are physicians and Christians who fled Lebanon in the 70s.

The union member in Altoona finds Obama fearful for entirely different reasons, of course.

need a napkin for the spittle flecking your chin? "These people" are physicians - and Christians!!

The only thing you haven't explained is why in any way shape or form this is possibly 'worth a mention'. This could only be worth a mention to the same sort of voter who finds laced wingtips as beach footwear is 'a good look'.

I genuinely imagine that if I were to pay a visit to limbaugh.com I'd find stuff like this next to instructions on clipping it for message board distribution.

drsmooth wrote:

TomatoPie wrote:

dajafi wrote:TP, you don't think those people recognize that DC isn't working very well for them?

Everyone who is not where they want to be, financially, blames the government.

So while they may think the DC owes them, my sense is that by and large, they don't see Obama as the guy who can deliver for them. Hillary is going to Make The Oil Companies Pay The Gas Tax!

You must live in a very insular world not to sense how alien Barack Hussein Obama is to middle Americans.

People fear him for all sorts of reasons.

This is small and anecdotal, but worth a mention. Very good friends, Republicans of Lebanese background who voted for Bush (and regret it), changed registration to Democrat in order to vote against Barack. They are no fans of Hillary, but they feel the Obama will advance a Muslim agenda. These people are physicians and Christians who fled Lebanon in the 70s.

The union member in Altoona finds Obama fearful for entirely different reasons, of course.

need a napkin for the spittle flecking your chin? "These people" are physicians - and Christians!!

The only thing you haven't explained is why in any way shape or form this is possibly 'worth a mention'. This could only be worth a mention to the same sort of voter who finds laced wingtips as beach footwear is 'a good look'.

I genuinely imagine that if I were to pay a visit to limbaugh.com I'd find stuff like this next to instructions on clipping it for message board distribution.

You won't find it on the general site, you only get it in the Subscriber's Newsletter. Megadittoes, noob!

Grotewold wrote:

dajafi wrote:The argument TP is making, I think, is that racism/cultural alienation/call it what you will is a stronger determinant of voting than all policy arguments (starting with the lousy state of the economy, which political scientists generally regard as determinative, but not ending there), plus whatever degree of Bushian bad vibes can be attached to McCain through the efforts of a sustained, large, well-funded and tactically proficient Obama team.

This might prove to be the case, but I don't think it's the way to bet.

Moreover, I don't think it's the way for Obama to play it. I meant it when I said "$#@! em." I'd much rather Obama figure out ways to get new voters registered than waste time trying to change the minds of or comfort bigots and idiots.

And I don't buy the notion that these people who are "afraid" of Obama would feel better if Hillary were with him. They would vote for McCain or stay home.

Obama should double down, not lie down.

Agreeed. And these Dem strategies where they try to pander to the middle, and or appease everyone, never work. Better to stand for something, go for it and go strong, people like that too. You know that millions won't vote for you anyway -- but can you get millions plusone more than the other guy to vote for you?!

Anyone who doesn't think people will vote McCain just on race, isn't living in reality -- of course -- but then many will not vote for Hilary for equally prejudiced ideas -- gender but other things... better to create a real vision, stand for something and see if you can create some momentum.

I see no reason to argue that Hilary has a better chance to win than Obama. I think both will lose -- 2+ years ago I said Hilary will lose to McCain in the next election. I was close to right -- maybe the unexpected Obama-factor can change my pessimistic view of it all?!