The ONE AND ONLY Politics Thread

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri May 09, 2008 12:45:18

TomatoPie wrote:The clamor is rising for Hillary to drop out of the race.

"She's hurting the party!"

"Barack has to spend money fighting her instead of McCain!"

So, for the "good of the party," Hillary should drop out and support Obama.

Right?

Well, there are a boatload of uncommitted Super Delegates out there. If Obama is the only choice, why are they uncommitted?

They could end this thing RIGHT NOW by coming out for Obama. Yet they do not.

Why?

Well, as dim as the Dems often seem, they apparently have grasped that Hillary is strong in the key swing states that Obama can't win.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. That's the election right there. Hillary beats McCain there, Obama does not.

There are a sufficient number of Dems who understand that.


I think it's a little early to say that Obama winning any of those states is out of the question. Although, because of his weaknesses in these states, he'd do well to pick a popular person from one of those states as VP. Rendell makes a lot of sense, if he hadn't said that godawful thing about white people in this state not being ready to vote for the black guy.
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Postby drsmooth » Fri May 09, 2008 12:46:17

TomatoPie wrote:Well, as dim as the Dems often seem, they apparently have grasped that Hillary is strong in the key swing states that Obama can't win.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. That's the election right there. Hillary beats McCain there, Obama does not.

There are a sufficient number of Dems who understand that.


I'd believe this tautological "Obama can't beat McCain in those states because - well, he didn't beat hilary in them" "reasoning" if I heard it out of the superdeduperdelinquents own mouths.

Out of Rush's, not so much.
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Postby TomatoPie » Fri May 09, 2008 12:49:06

If the Dems care more about winning in November, they will cut a deal for a Hillary/Obama ticket.

Would win in a landslide.

Obama saves face and is young enough to take the mantle from Hillary down the road.

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Postby meatball » Fri May 09, 2008 12:56:26

Congratulations on winning the primaries, Mr. Obama. Here's second place!

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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 12:56:53

TomatoPie wrote:If the Dems care more about winning in November, they will cut a deal for a Hillary/Obama ticket.

Would win in a landslide.

Obama saves face and is young enough to take the mantle from Hillary down the road.


This is absurd. That violent shuddering I caused in you when I cited your logic (approvingly) about protectionism and nanny-statism a few pages back must have shaken something loose.

Nixon-in-a-Pantsuit would massively lose young voters and African-Americans--if not in votes, than in money and enthusiasm. She's still poisonous to moderates and independents--the very voters who most value integrity and authenticity, the characteristics on which McCain clobbers Her Highness.

Half the country detests Hillary, and more than half thinks (correctly) that she's dishonest and spineless. When was the last time the inferior politician won the election? Nixon in '68? If Hillary could resurrect George Wallace, then maybe she'd have a shot... though with the "hard-working whites" comment yesterday, Wallace might be extraneous with her. Or a good running mate on an All-Undead ticket.

edit: hoya, your cavalry's here. Darth Sidious to your Vader/Maul/Christopher Lee, so to speak.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri May 09, 2008 13:03:53

Smart, conservative guy looks at the primaries ahead and says don't call it over yet. I disagree with him, but I would gain great enjoyment from his scenario playing out, so I hope I'm wrong.

In any case, Hillary swatting Obama by a 2-1 margin in WVa would would awesome Tuesday. I'm not sure people in West Virginia get cable news or read newspapers, so they might not know it's over yet. She's got that going for her, which is nice.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vkDEt-jbr4&e[/youtube]

In other news, she has gotten the run a positive campaign memo, I think.

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Postby TomatoPie » Fri May 09, 2008 13:04:29

dajafi wrote:
TomatoPie wrote:If the Dems care more about winning in November, they will cut a deal for a Hillary/Obama ticket.

Would win in a landslide.

Obama saves face and is young enough to take the mantle from Hillary down the road.


This is absurd. That violent shuddering I caused in you when I cited your logic (approvingly) about protectionism and nanny-statism a few pages back must have shaken something loose.

Nixon-in-a-Pantsuit would massively lose young voters and African-Americans--if not in votes, than in money and enthusiasm. She's still poisonous to moderates and independents--the very voters who most value integrity and authenticity, the characteristics on which McCain clobbers Her Highness.

Half the country detests Hillary, and more than half thinks (correctly) that she's dishonest and spineless. When was the last time the inferior politician won the election? Nixon in '68? If Hillary could resurrect George Wallace, then maybe she'd have a shot... though with the "hard-working whites" comment yesterday, Wallace might be extraneous with her. Or a good running mate on an All-Undead ticket.


You cite some valid points about the Hillary Hate out there, but you may be viewing this thru East Coast Liberal lenses.

"Reagan Democrats" prefer Hillary to Obama, as evidenced in Ohio and PA and FLA. They also prefer her to McCain. Hillary wins those states vs McCain and Obama loses them. If one candidate can capture PA OH and FL, that candidate wins the whole thing.

Would Obama supporters be incensed to see him on the bottom of the ticket? Sure, initially. But he would say all the right things, and his supporters would largely stick around, with Hillary, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, and the full cast of characters calling this a 16-year plan. What's so bad about giving Obama 8 years of seasoning as VP before his 8 years as POTUS? Imagine how much he can do to reverse the damage of Bush and Reagan! :wink:

The hesitation to push Obama over the top -- again, very doable TODAY -- stems from the entirely pragmatic notion that Hillary can win in November and Obama cannot.

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Postby TomatoPie » Fri May 09, 2008 13:12:34

For those playing at home, I have been wonderfully amused at the shift in the left wing media. As SNL has astutely lampooned, they are in the bag for Obama. So much so that they readily vilify one of their former heroes, Mrs. Clinton, for standing in the way of Obamanation.

I really enjoy "Morning Joe" on MSNBC with conservative host Joe Scarborough, centrist Willie Giest, and lefty Mika Brzezinski.

Today, Geist and Scarborough were off, and sitting in were David Shuster and Tiki Barber. It was an Obama cheerleading squad, and Hillary is the devil. For "balance" they bring in the old conservative kook, Pat Buchanan as a guest.

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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 13:23:53

Maybe as a Loyal Bushie who's basically happy with what's happened the last eight years, you don't quite grasp this notion... but much of Obama's appeal has to do with the fact that he recognizes the dysfunction in our policymaking--exemplified by the Gas Tax Holiday proposal--for what it is. Hillary embodies that dysfunction.

I'd much rather lose to McCain, who at least has some integrity and a sense of the national interest, than win with Hillary by pandering to fears of the Scary Black Man--which is essentially all you're saying.

By the way, your Limbaugh-Lite notion of media favoritism for Obama is as absurd as your past blather about the harsh treatment of Bush. See for instance the treatment of Wright--an Even Scarier Black Man--compared to that of Rod Paisley. And if Obama had uttered Hillary's remark about "obliterating" Iran--or made any of McCain's slip-ups about Al Qaeda, Sunnis, Sh'ia, et al--he would have been hounded out of the race. That this would have happened if he'd lost 11 straight contests, as she did, is also pretty certain.

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Postby Grotewold » Fri May 09, 2008 13:37:49

dajafi wrote:[M]uch of Obama's appeal has to do with the fact that he recognizes the dysfunction in our policymaking--exemplified by the Gas Tax Holiday proposal--for what it is. Hillary embodies that dysfunction.


Well put. I feel strongly that his best shot in November is to appeal to new voters and pissed-off centrists and even Republicans. Putting Hillary on the ticket to appeal to her 'hard working whites' or whatever would be pointless at best and a disaster at worst.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri May 09, 2008 13:41:01

I think we should have an argument about media bias.

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Postby Philly the Kid » Fri May 09, 2008 13:41:49

I would contend -- that is more likely a Hilary supported will vote for Obama, because of wanting to get the Rep out of the White House, than a lot of the new enfranchised Obama supporters even bothering to show up for Hilary. That alone means to me Obama should get the shot. It's really quite close and would unrealistic to say Obama-mania sweeps the land. But he's enough ahead, and given the practicalities, and if she won by a smidge due to some super-D shenanigans -- it would damage the party to the point of losing the election. She isn't ready to really accept any of this, but if the Dems really want to win, (and let's face it, "the Dems" is NOT a monolithic structure of unity) -- they need to get Hilary out of the way, leave nothing up to chance at the convention -- and get started on winning the swing states from McCain.

I hear the name Jim Webb from Virginia as a VP mate for Obama... does he need a guy from S of the Mason Dixon for VP? I thought a governor not another Senator... but who knows...
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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 13:43:22

Good Brooks today:

The British conservative renovation begins with this insight: The central political debate of the 20th century was over the role of government. The right stood for individual freedom while the left stood for extending the role of the state. But the central debate of the 21st century is over quality of life. In this new debate, it is necessary but insufficient to talk about individual freedom. Political leaders have to also talk about, as one Tory politician put it, “the whole way we live our lives.”

That means, first, moving beyond the Thatcherite tendency to put economics first. As Oliver Letwin, one of the leading Tory strategists put it: “Politics, once econo-centric, must now become socio-centric.” David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, makes it clear that his primary focus is sociological. Last year he declared: “The great challenge of the 1970s and 1980s was economic revival. The great challenge in this decade and the next is social revival.” In another speech, he argued: “We used to stand for the individual. We still do. But individual freedoms count for little if society is disintegrating. Now we stand for the family, for the neighborhood — in a word, for society.”
...
They want voters to think of the Tories as the party of society while Labor is the party of the state. They want the country to see the Tories as the party of decentralized organic networks and the Laborites as the party of top-down mechanistic control.

As such, the Conservative Party has spent a lot of time thinking about how government should connect with citizens. Basically, everything should be smaller, decentralized and interactive. They want a greater variety of schools, with local and parental control. They want to reverse the trend toward big central hospitals. Health care, Cameron says, is as much about regular long-term care as major surgery, and patients should have the power to construct relationships with caretakers, pharmacists and local facilities.


Brooks believes that this model of conservatism--decentralized, trusting of individuals, families and communities, supportive rather than proscriptive, and less focused on "souls" than quality of life--eventually will cross the pond and become the model for the American Republican Party. He cites Cameron as admiring of Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger--my two favorite former/current Republicans.

This is a vision millions of moderate Democrats would take seriously, and consider supporting. Personally, my loathing isn't for "the Republican Party" as an institution--but rather what Bush, Cheney, DeLay, Norquist, Dobson and their various sycophants have done with it.

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Postby Grotewold » Fri May 09, 2008 13:45:45

Philly the Kid wrote:I hear the name Jim Webb from Virginia as a VP mate for Obama... does he need a guy from S of the Mason Dixon for VP? I thought a governor not another Senator... but who knows...


I tend to think the VP stuff is overblown each election. But to the extent that it matters, Obama needs to pick a guy (or gal) who fits his new-Washington theme.

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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 13:59:26

I'm at the office today and our executive director--a former Clinton '96 staff guy--told me just now that he's come around to Webb as the logical VP pick. Reasoning is strictly that the Republicans will come at Obama on the "cultural elitist" stuff, and Webb, the ultimate "sons of the soil" advocate in Democratic politics, can hit back hard on that.

I also think that Webb, as a former Republican cabinet member who has been really critical, on the record, of social liberalism as the end-all be-all of Democratic politics, helps advance the whole "let's get past Rove/Carville, Bush/Clinton political atmospherics" storyline that Obama has tried to put out there.

Plus, as I said, they'd be hands-down the greatest literary ticket in U.S. history.

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Postby TomatoPie » Fri May 09, 2008 14:03:31

dajafi wrote:Maybe as a Loyal Bushie who's basically happy with what's happened the last eight years, you don't quite grasp this notion... but much of Obama's appeal has to do with the fact that he recognizes the dysfunction in our policymaking.


Again, that's his appeal to YOU, east coast liberal elite (I mean that in the nicest way).

That appeal does not extend to the union guys drinking a shot and a beer. You know, those who cling to God 'n' Guns. Once you get 10 miles west of the White Dog Cafe, there's lots more of them than you.

Like David Shuster, the danger for you and the Dem machine is to see Obama thru your eyes only. To assume that the only folks who don't like Obama are racists who vote GOP anyhow.

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Postby drsmooth » Fri May 09, 2008 14:11:15

TomatoPie wrote:You cite some valid points about the Hillary Hate out there, but you may be viewing this thru East Coast Liberal lenses.

.....filler.......


The hesitation to push Obama over the top -- again, very doable TODAY -- stems from the entirely pragmatic notion that Hillary can win in November and Obama cannot.


Unless you're merely cutting & pasting, it seems to me almost to defy physical laws that someone sentient enough to compose the mostly grammatically correct sentences you've posted could actually subscribe to their content.

Unless you're merely cutting & pasting.
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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 14:12:59

TP, you don't think those people recognize that DC isn't working very well for them?

Or that Obama and let's say Webb, with an enormous financial advantage at their disposal, can't win some decent chunk of them over by arguing that McCain=Bush?

Obama's the most religious candidate of the three, and he won't take their guns. Yeah, he doesn't hate on The Gays to the extent called for by the Rove playbook, but in the big picture that's a feature, not a bug.

Meanwhile, Bush does something good today.

This one is slightly problematic for poverty advocates, encompassing Food Stamps (and the Food Stamp Employment & Training Program, a great and under-utilized resource for workforce development) as it does, but the closing sentence of this link addresses that IMO.

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Postby Philly the Kid » Fri May 09, 2008 14:14:27

dajafi wrote:I'm at the office today and our executive director--a former Clinton '96 staff guy--told me just now that he's come around to Webb as the logical VP pick. Reasoning is strictly that the Republicans will come at Obama on the "cultural elitist" stuff, and Webb, the ultimate "sons of the soil" advocate in Democratic politics, can hit back hard on that.

I also think that Webb, as a former Republican cabinet member who has been really critical, on the record, of social liberalism as the end-all be-all of Democratic politics, helps advance the whole "let's get past Rove/Carville, Bush/Clinton political atmospherics" storyline that Obama has tried to put out there.

Plus, as I said, they'd be hands-down the greatest literary ticket in U.S. history.


My mom is down in DC now and she said the word in her circles is Webb, for the reasons you site.

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Postby dajafi » Fri May 09, 2008 14:16:51

Philly the Kid wrote:
dajafi wrote:I'm at the office today and our executive director--a former Clinton '96 staff guy--told me just now that he's come around to Webb as the logical VP pick. Reasoning is strictly that the Republicans will come at Obama on the "cultural elitist" stuff, and Webb, the ultimate "sons of the soil" advocate in Democratic politics, can hit back hard on that.

I also think that Webb, as a former Republican cabinet member who has been really critical, on the record, of social liberalism as the end-all be-all of Democratic politics, helps advance the whole "let's get past Rove/Carville, Bush/Clinton political atmospherics" storyline that Obama has tried to put out there.

Plus, as I said, they'd be hands-down the greatest literary ticket in U.S. history.


My mom is down in DC now and she said the word in her circles is Webb, for the reasons you site.


That Webb hates people like you (granola West Coast type), your mom (hoity-toity academic who thinks she's better than him) and me (goo-goo East Coast elitist) is *exactly* why he should be on the ticket...

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