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Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Bucky » Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:24:17

they have 125,000,000 reasons and they'll use every one of them

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby phorever » Sun Sep 14, 2014 08:12:04

Bucky wrote:they have 125,000,000 reasons and they'll use every one of them


SIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGH.......................................................

does that make the best case scenario 3b asche/franco, 1b howard/franco, galvis as backup ss/2b and finding a good defensive outfielder who hits decently against lefties to maximize the value of brown and revere by playing cf with revere moving to left against lefty pitching?

every time i look at the phils team defensive stats, i can't help but think that it should be so very easy to improve at 1b and 3b just by getting a couple of young and/or cheap role players that can defend well (at these supposedly easy positions!) and outhit brown and howard (when the latter doesn't have a weird babip split to help him) against lefties. this could maybe apply to cf and 3b and (hand-inverted) to rf as well. it's even more frustrating knowing we already have ruf and franco for the infield corner parts of that.
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Grotewold » Sun Sep 14, 2014 08:51:04

I'm cautiously optimistic they'll dump Howard. Playing him every day down the stretch is insane otherwise, and there's not really another way to "change the mix" as Amaro and Gillick keep saying.

Swapping him and Brown for Yasmani and Franco/Ruf could be a huge swing, and you'd still have insurance at 3b if Asche regresses. Sizemore for outfield depth if he's not too pricey

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Woody » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:42:23

Have a bad feeling we're going to overpay for Tomas and he's going to be just another lumbering guy we have no real position for. Good news is he's supposed to be only 23, so at least I guess there's a bit of upside.

He also looks a little like Marlon Byrd's Cuban twin:
Image
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby WheelsFellOff » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:44:10

A little... jebus.
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Grotewold » Sun Sep 14, 2014 10:45:56

#ByrdGang

I honestly think there's no choice but to overpay Tomas, assuming they like him. Just backload it beyond 2016

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Squire » Sun Sep 14, 2014 19:54:57

I was bored tonight and popped in Legends of the Fall (2009 Yearbook). Seriously, how awesome was it having Pedro Martinez that year?

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby etched Chaos » Sun Sep 14, 2014 21:47:33

Squire wrote:I was bored tonight and popped in Legends of the Fall (2009 Yearbook). Seriously, how awesome was it having Pedro Martinez that year?


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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby MoBettle » Sun Sep 14, 2014 22:36:16

Feliz's homer in game 4 was so great.
Two days later I get a text back that says I'm a basketball player and a businessman, not a Thundercat.

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby PTOITWCFTPP » Sun Sep 14, 2014 22:42:43

MoBettle wrote:Feliz's homer in game 4 was so great.

What a dick punch but in that moment I remember thinking to myself we are winning another World Series. And fuck the JOBA RULES
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Bucky » Mon Sep 15, 2014 09:28:02

Wait how come that prevalent banner ad now is "Meet the Phillies no-hit club at Valley Forge Casino Resort"??

I thought there was still the separation of player and gambling

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Woody » Mon Sep 15, 2014 09:30:02

there are autograph signings there all the time. it's attached to the convention center
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Bucky » Mon Sep 15, 2014 09:31:50

i thought they were only retired players though. guess i haven't been paying attention.

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby WhiteyFan » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:36:39

According to one team’s international scout, the latest Cuban slugger could command as much as $100 million. The scout said Tomas has gotten himself in shape and if he performs well at his showcase later in the month, the money will get “really high.” Tomas is susceptible to breaking stuff. His legal documentation has just about cleared.

Cafardo says the Phillies “could go hard on him” but the Red Sox and “several other teams” have interest.
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Bill McNeal » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:46:15

WhiteyFan wrote:
According to one team’s international scout, the latest Cuban slugger could command as much as $100 million. The scout said Tomas has gotten himself in shape and if he performs well at his showcase later in the month, the money will get “really high.” Tomas is susceptible to breaking stuff. His legal documentation has just about cleared.

Cafardo says the Phillies “could go hard on him” but the Red Sox and “several other teams” have interest.


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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Grotewold » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:19:47

Getter done

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby smitty » Mon Sep 15, 2014 13:16:07

Great. We'll be stuck with another power hitter who can't hit a curve ball. And a commie one to boot.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby sydnor » Mon Sep 15, 2014 13:20:40

not wild about the "got himself in shape" line.
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby phorever » Tue Sep 16, 2014 08:43:15

random?
b-r war has the phillies at 14.5(pitching)+9.1(offense and fielding)= 24.2. with the .292 replacement level winning percentage used by both b-r and fg, that gives exactly 24.2+43.8=68 wins in 150 games. they also have the phils with 68 pythagorean wins. looks like the phils are about as close to luck-neutral (outside injuries) as possible.

interestingly, the fwar numbers are 11.4+9.8+43.8=65 wins. when i have a chance, i want to check this out for all teams. last winter i decided that bwar is more accurate than fwar, and i wonder if this will show up in the size of the war-vs-pythwin-vs-actualwins inconsistencies for the two systems. on a per-player basis, the bwar numbers for the phillies i frequently check on have seemed to make more sense than the fwar values for almost all players for almost the whole season... but that might just be comfirmation bias.

sydnor should root for fangraphs, in which the "lead" (less negative war) of babreu over gwynnjr is not as alarmingly narrow as it is on b-r.
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Re: Random Phillies thoughts(of impending winter sports)

Postby Roger Dorn » Tue Sep 16, 2014 16:02:26

@MattGelb: Domonic Brown bunted to beat the shift. "Excellent," Ryne Sandberg said. "I'd like to see more of it."

Wtf
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